594
FXUS64 KHUN 160805
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
305 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

...New NEAR TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 939 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

 - High chances for showers return Saturday night into Sunday
   with low chance of strong to severe storms.

 - Gusty winds 20-25 mph are expected Sunday afternoon.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 305 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

High pressure at the surface and aloft continues to produce no
weather of consequence to the greater Tennessee Valley, for the
latter half of the work week. 3 AM temperatures across northern
Alabama and adjacent middle Tennessee ranged from the mid 50s to
lower 60s with light N-NE winds.

For today, almost a carbon copy to what occurred yesterday far as
a sensible forecast. Upper level ridging over the area will start
weakening as we go into the evening. But it`s influence will
remain, likely keeping a string of clear days going. The satellite
view over IA/WI indicated some higher level moisture rounding the
northern extent of upper ridging to the the south. Forecast trends
and soundings suggest that this moisture should not reach the
area until this evening. Thus another warm, sunny mid October day
is expected, with high temperatures rising from the upper 70s
higher terrain, to low/mid 80s valleys. Light winds this morning
should become NE at 5-10 mph with a few higher gusts this
afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday night through Saturday)
Issued at 939 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

We begin a gradual pattern shift as we move through the end of the
workweek into the start of the weekend. As the upper level ridge
pushes towards the East Coast, a short wave trough begins to dig
down across the Upper Plains. Closer to home, southerly flow
returns on Friday allowing for moisture advection off the Gulf to
occur. Since there is a lot of dry air in place across the
Tennessee Valley, dry weather continues through Saturday afternoon
with highs Friday and Saturday rising into the low to mid 80s .
However, it will feel a bit more humid with dewpoints rising into
the lower 60s on Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 939 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Our long stretch of dry weather comes to end Saturday night as a
sfc low pressure system moves across the Midwest with a cold front
draped to its south that is forecast to swing through the
Tennessee Valley. Expect high chances for showers to begin late
Saturday night into Sunday with the cold front passage. Chances
for thunderstorms remain low and the probabilities for strong to
severe storms appears very low at this time. If any strong storms
do develop along the front, gusty winds will be the primary
concern given good deep layer shear. However, forecast instability
remains quite low limiting the likelihood of deep convection.
Flooding threat appears low as well given the quick movement of
the front and the antecedent dry conditions.

As the front passes through the area, expect gradient winds to
increase 20-25 mph on Sunday. These will be ushering in another
Fall airmass with temperatures expected to drop Sunday night into
the low to mid 40s. The Fall weather pattern continues through
the middle of next week with afternoon highs topping out in the
70s Monday through Wednesday. Model guidance is suggesting another
weak cold front passing through the area on Tuesday
night/Wednesday which may bring a low chance for showers, but
confidence remains low in precip given the lack of moisture return
ahead of the front.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1100 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

VFR conditions will prevail at each terminal through the period
with light winds and a mostly clear sky.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RSB
SHORT TERM....GH
LONG TERM....GH
AVIATION...AMP