555
FXUS64 KHUN 101046
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
546 AM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024

High pressure remains anchored over the central Great Lakes
region. Further south a weakened Hurricane Milton continues to
move ENE about 30 miles south of Orlando, FL as of the 1 AM
Advisory. Sustained winds have weakened to 90 mph as per the
mentioned advisory and the central pressure have risen to 975 mb.

A decent pressure gradient remains in place at this time (as 5 to
10 mph surface winds indicate) in most locations. However, some
sheltered valley locations do have light or calm winds from time
to time. With clear skies, pockets of lows in those sheltered
locations will likely drop into the upper 40s. Elsewhere, lows
will likely fall into the lower 50s at best.

Not much change is expected over the Tennessee Valley with a
decent pressure gradient remaining in place between the departing
tropical system (Milton) and the high over the Great Lakes region.
Sustained winds around 10 mph with gust between 15 and 20 mph are
expected, especially in the afternoon. Otherwise, another
beautiful day with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024

With lighter winds expected tonight, as the pressure gradient
really weakens, lows will likely get a bit cooler. For now, kept
close to guidance dropping lows into the 45 to 50 degree range in
most locations.

On Friday with the cooler start, highs may only make it into the
75 to 80 degree range despite sunny skies. By then most guidance
has the center of the surface high shifting south into the
southeastern CONUS. With calm winds likely setting up overnight,
lows will likely be a tad cooler, dropping into the 45 to 50
degree range over a larger portion of southern middle Tennessee
and northern Alabama.

During the day on Saturday, the high really weakens and shifts
southeast into the northern Gulf of Mexico and off the SE Atlantic
coast. Return flow from the western Gulf of Mexico sets up again
as a result. Highs should climb back into the upper 70s to lower
80s. Moisture advection will help to warm up low temperatures by
Saturday night.

By Sunday, low level warm air advection increases significantly
as a cold front approaches the Tennessee River. This can be seen
in the increases in 925 temperatures in model output. Highs should
feel almost summerlike in response, climbing back into the lower
to mid 80s. At this time, it still looks like moisture will be too
limited along the front for any precipitation to occur, except to
our northeast. Could see some partly cloudy conditions briefly
though.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024

Warm temperatures will continue Sunday night with lows only
dropping into the mid 50s primarily.

Much colder and drier air will move southeast into the area
behind the afore-mentioned front. Highs should drop into the upper
60s to lower 70s on Monday and into the upper 50s to mid 60s
through midweek. Lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s look very
possible as well.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 546 AM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024

There have been no changes to previous aviation forecast
reasoning, as VFR/SKC conditions will continue at the terminals
during the early morning hours along with a NNE wind of 5-10 kts.
A few high clouds may return during the early morning hours and
persist thru the remainder of the period, with NE winds expected
to strengthen to 8G16 kts after sunrise, before diminishing once
again after sunset.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KTW
SHORT TERM....KTW
LONG TERM....KTW
AVIATION...KTW