440
FXUS64 KHUN 301736
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1136 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1030 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

 - A few bouts of rainy weather expected for the week ahead.

 - More cold rain, heavy at times, from Monday afternoon through
   Tuesday (90%-100% chance), low chances (~10-15%) for flooding.

 - Wind chill temperatures in the 20s at most locations the next
   few mornings, with freezing fog possible (20-30% chance) in
   some areas Wednesday morning.


&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of Today and Tonight)
Issued at 1030 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

Light rain will continue this morning in eastern locations ahead
of a cold front making its way across the area. Behind the front,
a slightly colder air mass will be moving in as drizzle and low
clouds will tend to hang on until the afternoon. The latest
satellite imagery suggests the low clouds will be slow to clear to
the area, but should begin doing so early this afternoon in far NW
Alabama. This clearing line will gradually move ESE, perhaps
reaching the HSV metro by sunset, but otherwise won`t reach most
of the eastern portions of the area until after dark. Temperatures
may struggle to reach the mid 40s in parts of the west where cold
air advection will be stronger amidst gradually clearing
conditions. Elsewhere, mid/upr 40s are expected. Temps tonight
should reach freezing (likely upr 20s to lower 30s), bringing a
chilly morning commute on Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1030 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

The low-lvl frontal boundary that moves across the area this
morning will stall to our south. On Monday, this front will begin
to move back to the north as southerly flow develops ahead of
trough moving through the Great Plains. Isentropic analysis
suggests rainfall could return to southern portions of the area as
early as mid/late morning, but it`s more likely to occur in the
afternoon. If the column moistens sufficiently during the morning,
just as yesterday, a few sleet pellets could mix in with the
light rain with WBZ values below frz aloft in the low-lvls. An
enhanced sub-tropical upr jet will be associated with this next
trough, which indicates Pac moisture will be combining with
lower-lvl Gulf moisture. Ensemble guidance has wavered a little
regarding expected QPF amounts for this next rainfall event, but
mean/median amounts have been fairly persistent around 1-1.5
inches. This shouldn`t cause much in the way of hydro concerns,
but if amounts are closer to the higher end of guidance, exceeding
1.5 inches, then some minor flooding concerns may arise for
creeks and some TN River tributaries. Right now though,
probabilities for flooding conditions is still just around 10-15%.

Otherwise, rainfall will probably reach a peak in intensity and
coverage overnight Monday, with S/SE portions of the area likely
experiencing the heaviest rainfall. Colder air will once again
pour into the area on Tuesday as the rainfall gradually comes to
an end. On the plateau, the column may be sufficiently cold to
allow for some mixing with snow as the rain comes to an end on
Tuesday morning, but no accumulations are expected. Clouds may
tend to hang around for much of the day, with some breaks possible
in the afternoon, but temps will struggle to rise much (if at
all) into the lower 40s.

Deep NW flow on Tuesday will gradually turn to a zonal flow
pattern by Wednesday, but dry conditions are anticipated from
Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday with just a slight moderate in
temps. However, Wednesday morning will likely start out rather
cold, with temperatures expected to be in the low/mid 20s for most
locations. The prospects for fog given generally ideal conditions
will present a threat for freezing fog Wednesday morning, which
will need to be watched going forward.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 1000 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

Wednesday and Thursday will remain dry and chilly with high and
low temps hovering around 10 degrees below normal for early
December. Morning temps in the mid 20s to low 30s can be expected
with afternoon highs around 50 degrees. The next weather system is
expected late in the week which will be the next shot at any
potential rainfall and/or wintry precipitation. Ensemble
scenarios vary in terms of timing and strength of this system so
the finer details of the forecast remain to be seen but it will
definitely be something to keep an eye on in the coming days. Stay
tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1130 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

IFR/MVFR ceilings are expected initially at TAF sites, but
improving flight conditions are expected around 20-22Z as low
clouds begin to break up and move south of the TAF sites.
Confidence is better on return to VFR timing at the KMSL site,
with lesser confidence at KHSV (may need to be extended 1-2
hours). Otherwise, VFR conditions are anticipated at the TAF sites
through the remainder of the period after the low cloud deck has
cleared the site. Just after the end of the TAF period, clouds and
rain will be on the increase again, with reductions in
vis/ceilings after 18Z on Monday.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KDW
SHORT TERM....KDW
LONG TERM....KG
AVIATION...KDW