198
FXUS64 KHUN 111920
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
220 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

...New NEAR TERM...

.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 219 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

Temperatures have been slow to rise with the blanket of cloud
cover that has been stubborn to break up today. A few showers
still linger mainly along and east of I-65, but they will
dissipate with sunset. Tonight, whatever clearing we do get, the
forecast soundings are hinting at a low stratus deck building in
after midnight, and could see another light shower or two by
sunrise once again focused east of I-65. Lows will only reach the
lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Thursday)
Issued at 1043 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

If you missed out on the rain recently, you will have a better
chances through mid week. The TN Valley will be sandwiched
between high pressure on the Southeast coast and a trough in the
Midwest. This southwesterly flow will advect moisture into the
region, pushing PWATs up to or over 2" on Tuesday already, which
is in the 99th percentile. Ripples rounding the ridge and the low
pressure system off to our WNW will bring an increase in rain
chances. We will see the precip chances increase through the day
to reach 50-70% by the afternoon on Tuesday. Wednesday and
Thursday will be much of the same. Shear will be weak so storms
will be disorganized, but with the instability in place could
giveaway to a few stronger storms with gusty winds and heavy
rainfall as the primary threats. With the multiple rounds of
rainfall, will be keeping an eye on flooding potential too as WPC
has placed the TN Valley in a Marginal Excessive Rainfall Outlook
through Thursday. With the cloud cover and increased rain chances,
highs will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 1018 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

A return to zonal flow aloft late this week into the weekend, with
an area of high pressure noted across Florida. Plenty of moisture
underneath that ridge will allow for medium (30-50%) chances for
showers and storms each day. However, the bigger story will be the
gradual warming trend as temperatures climb into the low to mid
90s during this timeframe, especially by the weekend. Combined
with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s, this will be push heat index
value near or above Advisory criteria, with heat index values
between 100-105 degrees being common and some locations climbing
above 105 degrees. Heat products may need to be considered for
parts of the area by Friday through Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

MVFR CIG cloud deck still lingers along and east of I-65,
affecting KHSV. This is also where a few light showers are, so
introduced VCSH for a few hours at KHSV. KMSL will remain VFR
until ~08Z when MVFR CIGS will impact both terminals until after
sunrise. Afternoon showers and a few thunderstorms are expected at
both terminals.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JMS
SHORT TERM....JMS
LONG TERM....AMP
AVIATION...JMS