153
FXUS64 KHUN 221933
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
133 PM CST Wed Jan 22 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...

.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 133 PM CST Wed Jan 22 2025

Zonal flow aloft will turn southwesterly tonight. Additionally,
surface high pressure will largely persist over the Southeast.
However, a system moving over the Great Lakes may bring some
increased upper clouds later tonight. The main concern overnight
will be the continued cold, albeit not as frigid as past nights.
Lows are forecast to range between the mid teens to around 20
degrees. The wind will be very light, so wind chills will not be
as big of a factor as last night. Regardless, it will be very
cold, so please make sure to prepared and safe - remember the 4
Ps: People, Pets, Pipes, and Plants!

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday Night)
Issued at 133 PM CST Wed Jan 22 2025

An upper shortwave is slated to move through the region on
Friday, along with a surface dry, cold front. No precipitation is
anticipated with these features, but some clouds and a slight cool
down will follow. Highs are forecast to reach the lower 40s on
Thursday, but dip back into the 30s for Friday. Lows will be
fairly similar Thursday and Friday nights, with temperatures
expected to dip into the upper teens to lower 20s each night.
While it won`t necessarily be as cold as we`ve seen recently, we
are not in the clear yet and we need to remain prepared. Make sure
to bundle up if headed outdoors, check on the elderly and your
neighbors, and drip faucets to avoid pipes from bursting!

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 307 AM CST Wed Jan 22 2025

A strong area of high pressure continues to be forecast over the
southeastern CONUS on Saturday. The airmass associated with it
will still be rather cool, but with abundant sunshine and weak
southerly surface flow returning, temperatures will climb into the
lower to mid 40s in the afternoon. A large area of high clouds is
shown pushing into NW AL via zonal flow aloft during the late
afternoon/early evening hours. This occurs along a warm front
extending east from the surface low over western Texas. The late
arrival of this cloud cover should not affect high temperatures
much.

Weak southerly flow at the surface will continue Saturday night, as
the surface low moves into the southeastern Texas coast or just off
its coast. Moisture advection should allow dewpoints to climb into
the 20 to 28 degree range at least (maybe a bit higher). This
should make for a warmer night with lows only dropping into the
mid 20s to lower 30s.

Low level flow from the south or southeast increases in strength as
the low moves further east along the northwestern Gulf of Mexico on
Sunday. Models continue to differ on the onset timing of
precipitation. However, kept close to the mean concerning timing,
introducing isolated to scattered chances of rain into locations
near and west of the I-65 corridor on Sunday.

Sunday night models tend to show the storm system weakening but
still producing some light rainfall over northern Alabama, while
keeping the heavier precipitation along the front shifting
southeast. This light precipitation looks to linger in most
guidance into the morning hours on Monday, before an area of high
pressure pushes in behind it from the northwest. This airmass is
cool, but fairly modified by flow around another much stronger
upper low over the southwestern CONUS. Highs should be able to
climb into the 45 to 50 degree range in most locations (maybe a
tad higher). Lows should continue to climb into the lower 30s.

With an extended period of zonal flow aloft continuing early next
week, a warming trend picks up steam. Highs should push back into
the mid 40s/lower 50s and lows into the lower to mid 30s as a result
by Tuesday morning. With a stationary or retrograding upper low over
the desert southwest Tuesday into Wednesday, highs will continue to
warm into the lower 50s on Tuesday and the mid to upper 50s on
Wednesday. Lows should continue to climb higher as well.

Some isentropic lift and moisture advection moving east along zonal
flow may provide the impetus for additional rainfall chances Tuesday
night into Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1052 AM CST Wed Jan 22 2025

VFR conditions will continue through Thursday morning. Southerly
winds between 5-10 knots are forecast this afternoon, becoming
calm this evening. Additionally, clear skies will give way to some
upper level clouds late tonight through Thursday morning.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM....26
LONG TERM....KTW
AVIATION...26