726
FXUS64 KHUN 091948
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
248 PM CDT Sun Mar 9 2025

...New NEAR TERM...

.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Sun Mar 9 2025

Latest observations indicate a gradual expansion of clouds and
precipitation has taken place over the last couple of hours. A
mid/upr level cyclone continues to advance eastward towards the
region and intercepting deeper moisture emanating from the Gulf.
An increase in colder/ice crystal clouds has been observed
upstream to our west over nothern Miss in multi-spectral satellite
imagery, while a similar expansion has taken place over regional
radars to the west. However, much of the precipitation is light
in intensity, and it still appears as though much of it is not
reaching the sfc. The ongoing NE low-lvl winds are continuing to
bring relatively dry air into the area with sfc TDs in the
20s/30s. This will continue to present a challenge to the forecast
regarding measurable precip tonight. Essentially, the area may
ultimately serve as a dividing line between measureable
precipitation (mostly south) to little if any precipitation
(mostly northern areas) overnight. This is reflected well in
current forecast QPFs with amounts ~0.25 inches south with
gradually lesser amounts north. The rainfall will begin to taper
off later tonight as the system gradually exits to the east, but
some light rain may linger in eastern areas for the morning
commute.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 1115 AM CDT Sun Mar 9 2025

The center of the mid/upr lvl low will pass to our south tonight,
with our area along its northern flank. A deformation band
currently observed in satellite imagery, and with corresponding
rainfall, will cross the area tonight. Due to the complex
structure of an elevated warm front, rainfall may tend to be
intermittent and wax/wane especially over northern parts of the
area. But, rainfall will tend to be a little more steady as the
deformation axis tends to cross southern portions of the area.
Instability aloft will be meager, but may be sufficient to produce
isolated thunder mainly near or after midnight in southern parts
of the area, although timing/locations may need to be adjusted.
Otherwise, rainfall will tend to be less than 0.50 inch tonight,
even in southern areas where the highest totals are expected to
occur. A little light rain may still be present around the morning
commute, mainly in SE portions of the area, but will come to an
end during Monday morning as the system exits to our east.

Very mild cold/dry air advection will occur, but will probably not
be noticed as clearing conditions and sunshine will allow temps to
climb well into the 60s for most locations. An evolving zonal flow
pattern aloft and SWRLY flow and warm advection in the low-levels
will allow for further warming on Tuesday, with temperatures
likely climbing into the 70s amidst abundant sunshine.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 430 AM CST Sat Mar 9 2025

The start of the long term will see surface high pressure
centered over the FL Peninsula promoting a favorable return flow
pattern for the TN Valley. By Wednesday, several days of WAA will
allow temps to rise into the mid 70s. To our west, a shortwave
will attempt to dig south into the southern Plains. With strong
zonal flow surrounding the shortwave it will quickly dampen as it
moves east into the CWA on Thursday. The weakening shortwave will
provide enough support for showers throughout the day on Thursday
with a low chance of thunder on Thursday afternoon. Severe weather
is not anticipated as the system will actively be loosing shear
as it weakens, inhibiting the ability for storms to organize.

Warm and dry conditions will return briefly on Friday ahead of
our next rain and storm chances. While we maintain a benign
forecast for Friday, to our west a pronounced trough will begin to
dig into the SW CONUS. Through the day on Friday, the upper level
low will eject to the NE resulting in a developing surface
cyclone in the Plains. Along and ahead of these features, SE flow
will translate Gulf moisture into the SE CONUS. The forecasted
surface conditions and approaching cyclone certainly promote a
favorable pattern for heavy rain and strong to severe storms
however uncertainty still remains on the exact locations and
timing of these threats. Current forecast has the system moving
through on Saturday with medium rain and thunder chances (40-60%)
throughout the day. Ensemble guidance continues to highlight a
heavy rain threat with this system however continues to show some
uncertainty concerning the placement of the heaviest rainfall.
Also, in ensemble guidance there is some disparity concerning the
severe weather/flooding threat starting as early as Friday night.
The timing of the onset of precip will likely play a role in
determining how high our storm threat becomes Friday night or
Saturday. While we will continue to monitor overall trends in the
models, specific details about timing, and intensity will likely
not be apparent until much later in the work week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Sun Mar 9 2025

Generally -RA is overspreading the area this afternoon, but dry
air in the low-levels is preventing much precip from reaching the
sfc. This virga is likely to continue into the afternoon, but
intermittent, patchy -RA may reach the sfc later this afternoon as
mid/upper levels continue to moisten. Dynamic forcing and
moisture will be higher in southern portions of the area, with TAF
sites on the periphery. Given the uncertainty, -RA was included
in TAFs with PROB30 groups. A gradual increase in low-lvl moisture
tonight as the system swings by just to our south will allow for
increased RA coverage with sufficient chances at KHSV to include
dominant RA conditions for a few hours. MVFR ceilings are
possible, but not expected to be predominant at this time.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KDW
SHORT TERM....KDW
LONG TERM....RAD
AVIATION...KDW