004
FXUS64 KHUN 070825
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
225 AM CST Thu Nov 7 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 225 AM CST Thu Nov 7 2024

Despite a stalled boundary remaining just to our NW, conditions
have cleared significantly across the TN Valley. With moist
conditions from earlier rain, high dew points from persistent
easterly flow, and light winds, areas of patchy fog will be
possible across the TN Valley with a Dense Fog Advisory in effect
for our eastern counties through 8 AM.

The stalled front looks to push into the area around day break as
mid level high pressure dampens and retrogrades to our SE. This
will result in overcast conditions to start the day for much of
the area. Better forcing for rain will remain displaced to our NW
despite the clouds with very low rain chances maintained through
the day. Even with the frontal boundary bulging into the area, the
air mass looks to remain unchanged further supporting another day
with highs in the high 70s to low 80s with dew points in the high
60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 225 AM CST Thu Nov 7 2024


The remainder of the work week will see dry conditions as the
lingering frontal boundary greatly erodes tonight as the parent
low becomes further displaced. Friday will be unremarkable aside
from another day of unseasonably warm and moist conditions.

To our west, a cutoff low will plunge into the southern Plains on
Friday. NE flow around the cut off low along paired with
northerly flow around Hurricane Rafael will send a surge of
tropical moisture into the TN Valley. This will be seen in the
high mid and low level RH values and PWATS near and above 1.6".
This will set up a very favorable environment for rain. The cutoff
low pushing NE into the Great Lakes Region over the weekend will
act as a forcing mechanism in this saturated environment
supporting a gradual increase in rain chances from west to east
throughout the day on Saturday. Highest rain chances will be seen
overnight and into Sunday morning of about 60-80% across the CWA.
High rain chances will remain through the day as a frontal
boundary associated with the cutoff low looks to stall just to our
NW. Fortunately high rain chances will limit high on Sunday to
the low 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 225 AM CST Thu Nov 7 2024

For the start of a new week, the upper level flow across the greater
North American domain should be transitioning to more of a zonal
configuration. An upper low that helped maintain troughing over the
western half of the CONUS the previous week, should be heading
eastward across the Upper Mississippi Valley. This feature should
continue on a quick west to east manner, reaching Maine on Tuesday. A
surface low also stacked under it`s upper support will likewise head
eastward, dragging a cold front towards the forecast area. This
boundary should move in a west to east manner across the area Sunday
into Monday.

Complicating matters is what will happen with Tropical System Rafael
during Sunday morning; it should be somewhere over the central Gulf
of Mexico. The GFS/Canadian were a bit further to the north with this
system, allowing moisture from it to be translated into the above
noted front nearing from the west. The ECMWF with it`s more southern
positioning of Rafael would limit tropical moisture input into the
northern stream system more than the other two models. In any case,
Sunday/Sunday night will feature numerous to widespread showers/
thunderstorms. Rainfall amounts for the Sun-Mon timeframe should
range from 0.50 to 1 inch. This added with rainfall before could
raise totals in the 1-2" range, with the higher amounts over our
western areas. This places parts of NW Alabama in a Slight Risk (2/4)
for excessive rainfall in the Sat-Sun period. Overall storm intensity
appears mainly "general" storms embedded within more widespread
showers. Despite clouds and good rain chances, unseasonably warm
conditions will continue with highs on Sunday in the upper 60s to
lower 70s. The showers should taper off from west to east on Monday
as the front passes. Mild to warm conditions will prevail on Veterans
Day with highs in the lower 70s.

Dry conditions are expected Tuesday with highs again in the lower
70s. Another system forecast to move from the Pacific NW early next
week should stay on a more northern track, reaching the upper
Mississippi Valley on Wednesday. This will bring an increase in
clouds and more chances of showers Wed. One more warm day with highs
in the lower 70s. A cooler change appears will occur after midweek.
For reference normal high/low temperatures next Wed are around 65/42.



&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1159 PM CST Wed Nov 6 2024

The first half of the TAF period has the highest potential for
MVFR conditions. Skies have mostly cleared ahead of an
approaching area of low ceilings NW of the terminals creating
favorable conditions for fog formation between now and 12Z, this
potential has been highlighted by the tempo group. Come sunrise,
an area of low MVFR ceilings should slowly move SE across the
terminals from 12-18Z roughly. Conditions look to lift to VFR by
mid day and remain so for the remainder of the TAF period.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CST this morning for ALZ006>010-
     016.

TN...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CST this morning for TNZ076-096-
     097.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RAD
SHORT TERM....RAD
LONG TERM....RSB
AVIATION...RAD