977
FXUS64 KHUN 142245
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
545 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 544 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

 - High chances for showers Saturday night into Sunday with a low
   chance of thunderstorms.

 - Area wide rainfall of 0.75-1.5 inches is expected.


&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 247 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

The temperature forecast remains on track with current
temperatures across the forecast area in the u70s-l80s. Overall
mixing is not as strong as initially expected, but minimum RH
values may still drop into the 30-40% range. Winds will decrease
after sunset, but will remain around 5-10 mph which will help keep
fog potential low outside of sheltered valleys. Low temperatures
tonight should drop into the m50s-u50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Friday)
Issued at 1201 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Easterly low level winds should begin to advection more low level
moisture into the area from the east on Wednesday. As the axis of
the upper ridge moves east into the southeastern CONUS,
temperatures should continue to warm. 925 mb temperatures on
Wednesday climb to between 19 and 21 degrees in the afternoon.
With little cloud cover, highs will likely hit the 80 to 85 degree
range in most locations in northern Alabama and southern middle
Tennessee. Lows in some locations will likely warm into the 55 to
60 degree range.

Drier and slightly cooler air briefly advects into the area during
the day on Thursday as a shortwave trough passes north of the
area. This will likely keep highs in the upper 70s or 80-85
degree range then.

As the upper level ridge remains over the area on Friday, a
surface warm front moves into northern Alabama. This brings more
moist southerly low level flow into the region. This will likely
bring an area of high clouds across the area on Friday. 925 mb
heights increase in most models to between 19 and 22 degrees in
the afternoon. The high clouds should not impact temperatures much
given how high and thin they look in model progs. Thus, increased
highs a bit into the lower to mid 80s on Friday. The atmospheric
sounding still looks too dry for any mention of precipitation on
Friday into Friday night. Low level flow from the south or
southeast should strengthen though. This will likely keep low
temperatures from dropping below the lower 60s in many areas.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 1201 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Models are coming into better agreement on cloud cover and the
evolution of a strong cold front and associated longwave trough
axis extending southward from a closed low over south central
Canada. Though we could see some scattered cloud cover on
Saturday, not sure it will be widespread or very thick this far
south yet. However, by Saturday night into Sunday cloudy
conditions should develop across the area. Models continue to ramp
up shear ahead of this longwave trough axis as it pushes into the
lower and Mid Mississippi Valley areas Saturday evening. Forcing
should be strong enough well ahead of this front to begin
producing isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms over the
area. Instability doesn`t look to impressive (less than 500 J/KG).
However, shear will be strong enough to support thunderstorm
activity and maybe a strong storm or two.

Shear only strengthens as we continue into the overnight hours and
Sunday morning, before the front pushes into Georgia either during
the early morning hours or just after noon. Newest guidance does
show between 200 and 600 J/KG developing overnight ahead of the
front and some helicity as well. So, a marginal threat for some
severe storms could materialize at least as we get closer to that
period.

Depending on whether the front is still in northern Alabama around
noon, will determine if we have a more pronounced severe weather
threat it looks like. Models east of the I-65 corridor keep ample
shear around through that time near and ahead of the front. Models
also hint at a instability recovery in eastern Alabama as well
(CAPE between 500 and 1000 J/KG) possibly developing. If that
occurs and the front has not pushed east of the area yet, a more
substantial severe threat may materialize Sunday morning into the
early afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 544 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period. Gusty winds
will diminish overnight before once again increasing by tomorrow
afternoon.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KTW
SHORT TERM....KTW
LONG TERM....KTW
AVIATION...GH