275
FXUS64 KHUN 281726
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1126 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2025

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of Today)
Issued at 1005 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2025

Quiet conditions continue over the SE CONUS, as surface high
pressure over the NW Gulf region controls the weather. Area
temperatures at 10 AM have risen into the mid/upper 50s with
light winds. The surface high should build eastward into the
evening, which should induce a 5-10 mph southerly flow this
afternoon. No weather of consequence is expected.

One item of concern will be local relative humidity values falling
into the 25-35 percent range for a few hours this afternoon.
Critical fire weather thresholds are not expected with winds and
RH values not reaching trigger values.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 944 PM CST Thu Feb 27 2025

Low-level southwesterly flow will remain elevated across the
region on Friday evening, but should subside close to sunrise on
Saturday as a cold front trailing southwestward from the clipper
system (noted above) begins to approach the region from the
northwest. Although this will result in warmer overnight lows in
the l-m 40s, there may still be a very brief window of opportunity
for the development of patchy fog near rivers/lakes around 12Z
Saturday. As the dry cold front advances southeastward, NNW winds
will strengthen across the region on Saturday, advecting a
colder/drier modified Canadian airmass into the region as the
parent surface high builds south-southeastward into the Upper MS
Valley. Thus, in spite of mostly sunny skies, highs will be a few
degrees cooler and in the u50s-l60s.

It still appears as if dewpoints will fall into the upper
teens/lower 20s by sunrise on Sunday morning, but with NNE winds
expected to remain slightly elevated for much of the night, we are
predicting lows in the m-u 20s. Winds will subside on Sunday and
should remain fairly light through Sunday night as the center of
the surface ridge translates eastward from the OH Valley into the
western Mid-Atlantic region. Regardless of sun, highs will be the
coolest of the short term period cooler on Sunday (u40s-l50s).
Although a gradual increase in high-level clouds is anticipated
Sunday night as a southern stream trough (remnants of the cutoff
upper low currently off the coast of southern CA) shifts eastward
across the southern Plains with an accompanying region of
convective precipitation, lows will still drop into the u20s-l30s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 944 PM CST Thu Feb 27 2025

Extended range model data still suggests that a weakening
southern stream shortwave trough will advance eastward into the TN
Valley on Monday, and although the coverage of precipitation
associated with this feature will diminish considerably (compared
to Sunday night), it would not be surprising if a sprinkle or two
of rain occurred as this system crosses the region. Otherwise,
latest guidance remains in agreement on a notable increase in
south- southeasterly flow throughout the day, which will occur as
the ridge to our east drifts further into the Atlantic and a new
surface low forms across the central High Plains in response to
the eastward movement of a stronger shortwave trough across the
western CONUS Sunday night/Monday. Within the increasing
warm/moist advection regime, low stratus clouds are anticipated on
Monday night, with a few light showers possible as well, but POPs
remain on the low side (20-30%).

Well to the west of the local forecast area, showers and
thunderstorms will expand in coverage across a broad region
extending from north-central TX into the Mid-MS Valley on Tuesday
as the intensifying shortwave trough and deepening surface low
begin to eject east-northeastward across the central Plains.
However, this activity is expected to remain displaced to the west
of the region, with local conditions characterized by low clouds,
a few light showers and gusty SSE winds. Present indications are
that the deepening surface low will travel further northeastward
into eastern IL/western IN by 12Z Wednesday and into southern
Ontario by 0Z Thursday, and although the shortwave trough will
become increasingly sheared with time, flow throughout the
tropospheric column will increase considerably, with wind speeds
at the 500-mb level expected to reach 110-120 kts by Wednesday
morning. With time, showers and thunderstorms to our west will
become concentrated in the vicinity of a prefrontal surface
trough/wind shift axis, which should progress eastward through our
region between 4-10Z Wednesday. Although this system will
encounter a lingering dry airmass and slightly more stable
environment with eastward extent, dewpoints rising into the u50s
ahead of a broken QLCS will support CAPE up to 250 J/KG, and this
will be sufficient to support a risk for damaging winds and brief
tornadoes given the strength of the low-level jet (60-70 kts).
Aside from severe convective winds, conditions appear favorable
for strong gradient winds and a Wind Advisory will likely be
needed for Tuesday night/Wednesday. Due to the fast-moving nature
of the system, the flooding risk will remain low but non-zero as
most locations will experience between 0.5-1.5" of rain.

A separate round of light showers will likely occur on Wednesday
afternoon as the actual cold front crosses our region, with strong
NW winds, low clouds and light rain (perhaps mixing with a few
snow flurries) expected on Wednesday night. Winds will relax late
in the day on Thursday, with cooler afternoon temps in the l-m
50s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1126 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2025

VFR conditions should prevail for the TAF. Surface high pressure
over the NW Gulf region will build to the east, resulting in winds
this afternoon becoming SW at 5-15kts. Winds should diminish to
5kt this evening. A dry cold front is forecast to move across the
area before daybreak Saturday. Winds will veer to a NW direction,
and should increase into the 10-15kt range in the late morning.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RSB
SHORT TERM....70
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...RSB