749
FXUS64 KHUN 021558
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
958 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

...New NEAR TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 958 AM CST Mon Dec 2 2025

 - Cloudy skies and brisk north-northwest winds will lead to a
   cold day on Tuesday, with wind chills in the mid 20s. Snow
   flurries will be possible (especially during the late morning
   hours). Conditions will be favorable for freezing fog late
   Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning.

 - Chances for light precipitation return Thursday morning and
   continue through Friday. A brief wintry mix will be possible
   (especially in southern middle TN) before temperatures increase
   after sunrise Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of Today and Tonight)
Issued at 958 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

Widespread stratus between 1000 and 2000 feet primarily is
entrenched across much of the eastern CONUS. The cold front that
brought us rainfall overnight has pushed southeast into central
Alabama at this time. Colder and drier air continues to move into
the area from the NNW behind this atmospheric feature. NNW winds
are primarily between 5 and 10 mph with some gusts to between 15
and 20 mph. Expect winds not to change much through the afternoon
hours.

Mixing into the early evening hours should keep winds mainly
between 5 and 10 mph. After midnight winds may become light and
variable in portions of NW Alabama and southern middle Tennessee.
This will likely lead to some fog development. However, just how
long the cloud cover lingers tonight will have a big impact on how
widespread and how dense it will become. For now, given
uncertainties concerning cloud cover and winds, only including
patchy fog for now.

It will be colder again tonight, but again cloud cover may keep
lows from dropping below the lower to mid 20s. Winds chills won`t
be alot lower, given the expected weakening of the surface winds
after midnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday night through Thursday night)
Issued at 957 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

Short range model data suggests that a rapid transition to zonal
flow aloft will begin on Tuesday night, with westerly flow in the
mid-levels predicted to strengthen on Wednesday downstream from a
positively-tiltd trough drifting southeastward from the Four
Corners into the southern Rockies. At the surface, high pressure
centered across KY/TN will provide calm winds Tuesday night, and
with skies expected to remain clear, efficient radiational cooling
will drop temps into the l-m 20s (with an attendant risk for
development of freezing fog). As the weakening high shifts
eastward on Wednesday, light southerly return flow will contribute
to afternoon highs rebounding into the u40s-l50s.

On Wednesday night, the mid-level trough digging across the
southern Rockies will begin to sharpen a surface trough lying
across the northwest Gulf Coast, with stratiform precipitation
expected to redevelop north of this boundary and a rapid increase
in elevated clouds across our region. Although the precipitation
shield will continue to expand northeastward during the early
morning hours Thursday, it may only reach central MS by 12Z
Thursday and could largely bypass our forecast area to the south
later in the morning. However, the leading edge of a reinforcing
arctic airmass (building southeastward through the central Plains)
will reach our forecast area prior to sunrise, and elevated warm
advection (associated with WSW flow of 15-20 knots at the 850-mb
level) could lead to development of light precipitation. Should
this occur, forecast soundings suggest that sleet would be the
favored precipitation type, with a deepening warm nose in the
800-700 mb layer and high potential for evaporative cooling in the
low-levels.

Later in the day Thursday and into Thursday night, the mid-level
trough (across the southern Rockies) will dampen and accelerate
east-northeastward into the OH Valley in the flow to the east of
an amplifying wave over the central High Plains. As this occurs, a
second round of light precipitation will expand northeastward
from the Lower MS Valley into the southern Appalachians. Although
our CWFA may once again be on the northern fringe of this regime,
forecast soundings indicate that a light mixture of sleet and
perhaps some freezing rain could occur (particularly north of the
TN River, where temps are most likely to be in the lower 30s).

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 957 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

Light precipitation may be ongoing across much of the region on
Friday morning, but should gradually end from W-to E during the
afternoon hours as a decaying trough over the OH Valley advances
further northeastward. However, the risk for wintry precipitation
will quickly diminish after 12Z as the lower-middle tropospheric
column warms and moistens. With little change in the thermodynamic
properties of the boundary layer and another amplifying 500-mb
trough predicted to drop into the MS Valley by 12Z Saturday,
clouds and perhaps some sprinkles of rain may continue for much of
the region, but should end throughout the day on Saturday as the
trough axis shifts eastward and a drier airmass enters the region.

During the Sunday-Monday timeframe, there is considerable
uncertainty regarding the path and speed of an upstream clipper
system that will quickly progress from the central Plains into the
southeastern U.S. Present indications are that southerly return
flow ahead of this system will begin early Sunday morning, with
cloudy skies and perhaps some showers possible later in the day.
Clouds may continue on Sunday night and perhaps into Monday as
northwest flow in the wake of this system draws a colder/drier
airmass southeastward into the region once again.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 439 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

An area of -RADZ will continue to move east this morning as a cold
front passes through. Winds have shifted to the northwest at
8-12kt behind the front with a few gusts of 15-20kt. Ceilings
below 010agl (IFR) will slowly lift above 010agl (MVFR), but this
remains uncertain and amendments may be needed. Clearing is
forecast to slowly arrive tonight from west to east, entering
KMSL and KHSV from ~05-06Z. Patchy BR and FZFG is forecast to
develop as the wind diminishes late tonight. At this time, have
left out of KHSV and KMSL due to low confidence in exact
placement.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KTW
SHORT TERM....70
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...17