378
FXUS64 KHUN 051842
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
142 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

...New NEAR TERM...

.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 142 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

Afternoon Cu continues to develop across the CWA with only a
shower or two developing along the MS/AL state line so far. Any
convection that develops through the rest of this afternoon is
expected to remain west of I-65 and dissipate with sunset. Main
hazards in storms will be gusty winds up to 40 mph, heavy rainfall
and of course lightning.

We hope that everyone is having a fun and safe holiday weekend,
but stay weather aware aware. Remember, if you hear thunder or
see lightning, you are close enough to be struck. And with
temperatures peaking in the lower 90s this afternoon and heat
index values up to 100 degrees, heat safety is imperative. Take
breaks, stay hydrated and never leave a person or pet in a
vehicle. Otherwise, overnight lows will be near normal in the
upper 60s (NE AL) to the lower 70s (elsewhere) under mostly clear
skies.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday)
Issued at 1050 AM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

The upper low over the northeastern Gulf is shown by guidance to
retrograde west through Monday, with TS Chantal weakening into a
Tropical Depression and moving over the eastern portion of North
Carolina and Virginia during this time. Meanwhile, an upper
shortwave trough looks to progress slowly over the Midwest towards
the Ohio Valley by Monday before weakening. At the surface, a
cold front moves over the Midwest on Sunday, then over the Ohio
Valley by Monday morning. This feature will then approach the
Tennessee Valley through the day. Overall, little to no rain
chances are forecast on Sunday; although, would not be surprised
if a few showers/storms formed in the afternoon based on trends
from Friday the 4th as well as the current thinking for today.
This will be monitored, but have very low (10%) chances of
showers/storms Sunday afternoon.

On Monday, chances of showers/storms increase to be low to medium
(15-30%) as the aforementioned front approaches the region. Ample
instability with highs reaching the lower to mid 90s in most
locations as well as model DCAPE values between 1000-1300 J/kg
will prompt another day with the potential for a few stronger
storms capable of producing gusty downburst winds. With bulk shear
below 20 knots, no severe weather is anticipated. With highs in
the lower to mid 90s both Sunday and Monday and increasing
moisture ahead of the surface cold front, heat indices are
expected to reach the upper 90s to around 102 degrees by Monday
afternoon. Although this is below Heat Advisory criteria, it will
still be hot. Please stay safe and remember heat safety!

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through Friday)
Issued at 1010 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

High pressure will begin to break down just of the Atlantic coast
and begin building more over the Gulf to begin the work week.
This will ultimately result in increasing chances for diurnally
driven showers and storms beginning Monday. A weak frontal
boundary may begin to approach the area as early as Tuesday into
Wednesday, with PoPs increasing to 40-60% mainly focused during
the afternoon and evening hours. Chances will increase closer to
the frontal boundary on Thursday when it appears the front will
push through the TN Valley. Although not currently outlooked for
severe weather, some of these storms could be strong especially
toward the later half of the week. Heat will continue to be a
threat as afternoon heat indices remain between 100 and 105 each
day. Flooding may have to be monitored towards the end of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1206 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

VFR conditions were observed at the terminals at issuance. There
is a low chance (10-15%) of showers/storms along and west of I-65
this afternoon; however, confidence is low if these would impact
the TAF sites. Did not mention in the TAFs for now, but we`ll keep
an eye on this through the afternoon and make amendments as
needed. Any activity is expected to dwindle through the early
evening, with no rain overnight. While patchy fog may be possible
west of I-65 late tonight, confidence in lower VIS at HSV and/or
MSL is low. Outside of any storms, south to southeast winds around
5 knots or so today will become calm tonight. Winds will then
become more westerly and hover around 5 knots by Sunday afternoon.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JMS
SHORT TERM....26
LONG TERM....KTW
AVIATION...26