405
FXUS64 KHUN 111017
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
417 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

...New NEAR TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1040 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

 - Low chances of precipitation return to the forecast Saturday
   night as a cold front pushes through the area.

- The precipitation late Saturday night could become a wintry mix
  before ending, as temperatures fall before daybreak Sunday.

 - Confidence is increasing in a potential of very cold conditions
   early next week (~25% probabilities for low temps in the teens
   Monday morning).

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 417 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

A longwave mid/upper-level trough encompassing much of eastern
North America will undergo gradual amplification later this
morning as a high-level speed max digs south-southeastward into
it`s base. Lift within the left exit region of the approaching
speed max will continue to result in periods of dense altostratus
and cirrostratus clouds through 13-15Z along with some virga.
Given the presence of very dry profiles below 10-12 kft AGL, we
are not expecting any precipitation from the reflectivity returns.
However, if any hydrometeors do survive the trip to the ground,
they would likely come in the form of snow flurries. Due to the
combination of clouds and a light NNW wind, temperatures currently
sit in the u20s-l30s in our TN zones and in the mid 30s
elsewhere.

As for the remainder of the day, mid and high-level clouds will
temporarily clear the region later this morning. However, with NW
flow aloft remaining in the 80-85 knot range, clouds will return
over the course of the afternoon as an axis of precipitation
redevelops to our northwest (in the vicinity of the warm front
attached to a developing surface low across the northern High
Plains). Some virga related to this regime may reappear in the
northern portion of our CWFA late this afternoon, but after
temperatures have reached afternoon highs in the 45-50F range.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday night through Saturday)
Issued at 1040 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

The storm system over eastern Canada should be exiting Labrador
Thursday night into Friday. Cold air wrapping around this system
will retreat more to our NE, with not as chilly conditions Thu
night. Lows should only fall into the 30s (lower 30s east to upper
30s west). Likewise, Friday should be a milder day with highs
rising into the mid/upper 50s. A clipper system moving to the SE
from the northern High Plains should move across the central
Cumberland Plateau Friday. A dry front trailing southward from it
should move across this area Fri afternoon and evening. Colder air
filtering in from the NW will bring slightly cooler conditions to
close out the week. Lows Friday night should fall more into the
lower 30s areawide. Highs Saturday will be in the low/mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 1040 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

The forecast will get tricky Saturday night into early Sunday, as
a moisture return plus much colder air filtering in could result
in a wintry mix before daybreak Sunday. The latest run of the NBM
was continuing a lower-level moisture feed from the Gulf region
to across the Tennessee Valley. This output appears close to what
the 00Z NAM was showing (both showed more moisture return compared
to the drier older GFS, Canadian, ECMWF. Going with those latter
deterministic models would result in a dry forecast, with
sufficient moisture for precipitation remaining staying south of
the region. The previous NBM was showing this but with a larger
coverage. Going with a wetter scenario, a moisture return should
be sufficient to get rain going Saturday evening across the area.

A mix of rain/sleet/freezing rain/snow should begin after midnight
Saturday night. Forecast temperatures begin falling to and below
freezing at midnight over our Tennessee counties, and the rest of
the area by 3 AM. The precipitation should end from NW to SE as
even colder and drier air filers in towards daybreak Sunday.
Elevated and grassy surfaces (including bridges and overpasses)
could receive a light accumulation, especially if liquid totals
over a few hundredths of an inch occur. The temperatures falling
into the 20s could also produce more accumulations too. The blends
run to run (moisture wise) were trending drier, so by the weekend
the precip threat could be south of this area - if the drier trend
continues. Forecast temperatures by sunrise Sunday will tumble
into the upper teens north to mid 20s south of the Tennessee
River.

A very cold start to a new week is expected, with high
temperatures only reaching the mid/upper 20s north to low/mid 30s
south. A blustery northerly wind of 5-15 mph with higher gusts
will produce wind chill values 10-15 degrees colder than the
actual air temperatures. Very cold conditions will continue Sun
night with lows in the low/mid teens. Winds thankfully should be
lighter by this time that will help in the wind chill department.
Still cold for the start of the work week, with highs struggling
to around 40. Another chilly period Monday night, with lows in
the low/mid 20s; and highs Tuesday moderating to around 50.

The models were all showing moisture return from the south Tuesday
night, bringing lower end chances of rain to the Tennessee Valley
Tue night into Wednesday. With temperatures moderating, this
should be an all liquid event. Lows Tue night should range in
the 30s (colder east), with highs Wed into the low/mid 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1146 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

VFR conditions will exist at the HSV/MSL terminals this forecast
period, as postfrontal stratus will remain situated to the
northeast of the region. Thus, we expect only a few-sct coverage
of mid and high-level clouds, with a lgt NNW wind that will become
calm close to 12Z.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...70/DD
SHORT TERM...RSB
LONG TERM...RSB
AVIATION...70/DD