403
FXUS64 KHUN 080258
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
858 PM CST Fri Feb 7 2025

...New NEAR TERM...

.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 858 PM CST Fri Feb 7 2025

Overnight, a frontal boundary to our south will begin moving
northward and contribute to increased cloud cover. This, in turn,
should mitigate fog formation throughout the Tennessee Valley. A
dry forecast was kept through the morning with a very low chance
of fog mostly along sheltered river valleys (however, confidence
is low due to cloud cover and light winds). Low temperatures are
forecast to be in the upper 40s to lower 50s-- rising into the
mid to upper 50s by daybreak.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 1235 PM CST Fri Feb 7 2025

Despite a cloudy day, as the surface warm front lifts north of the
area, a stout southwest surface-8h wind flow will produce strong
warm air advection. 8h temps will reach the 12-15C range by late
in the day with highs in the lower to middle 70s with dew points
soaring into the lower 60s. If sunshine were to break through the
overcast, temperatures certainly would go a bit higher and
approach records. But for now, the clouds may hold readings back a
bit. Zonal flow at 5h will buckle slightly in the upper Midwest
owing to a surface wave that will rapidly move from OK SAturday
into the upper Ohio Valley by evening. An attendant cold front
will drop southeast Saturday evening into middle TN into far
northwest AL, shifting southeast of our forecast area by 06-09Z. A
stout capping inversion between 800-700mb will keep convection
very shallow. The best chance of rain will occur post-frontal, and
we may need to adjust from convective to more of a shallow
stratiform variety (-RA or DZ). Will monitor these trends as we
move forward.

Low clouds and a cool north wind will keep high temperatures in
the 50s for most areas Sunday. But it won`t take long for
overrunning to develop again Sunday night with a deep westerly
flow above the shallow cool air. So have kept low chance PoPs in
for this prospect.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 411 AM CST Fri Feb 7 2025

The long term portion of the forecast will feature a pattern that
will be conducive for heavy rainfall in the region. On Monday, a
largely zonal upr flow pattern will be present across the
Central/Eastern CONUS. A low-level synoptic boundary draped east-west
across the region may help to instigate a little lgt rain/shower
activity, but forcing will be relatively weak overall with limited
upper level support. However, on Tuesday the situation will begin to
change as an upr wave advancing across the southern tier states will
begin to move into the TN Valley region. Broad scale forcing for
ascent and moisture advection will lead to the development of a swath
of rain ahead of a mild N-Pac cold front. Rainfall amounts around 2-3
inches appear possible with this bout of rainfall from Tuesday into
early Wednesday, before a break occurs in the activity. A synoptic
sfc boundary is likely to be just south of the area keeping generally
NE flow present at the sfc, thus relegating any instability
primarily to layers aloft. However, the exact location of the sfc
boundary, which would factor into the presence of any sfc-based
instability is still uncertain. With that stated, instability aloft
is rather limited as well. Slight chances for thunderstorms were
only included for some southern portions of the area late
Tuesday/early Wednesday, in closer proximity to the sfc front.

On Wednesday and Thursday, a deeper trough will take shape over the
Central CONUS while a warm front surges northward into the region.
Once again, broad scale lift and deep moisture advection will give
rise to the development of a broad swath of rain across the region.
Precipitation amounts with the next round will largely total around
1-2 inches by the end of the forecast period. Considering the
preceding rainfall event, this could lead to some instances of
flooding and river flooding as we approach the mid to late week
period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 552 PM CST Fri Feb 7 2025

A frontal boundary near the I-20 and I-22 corridors will return
northward as a warm front tonight. As it passes, light N-NE winds
will become SE, then southerly after daybreak Sat. An area of low
pressure forming east of the Front Range of the Rockies, should
reach the western Ohio Valley in the afternoon. This will result
in SW winds increasing into the 10-20kt range and at times gusty
from the late morning into the afternoon. A stratus layer over
the region should hold firm, with CIG values fluctuating from MVFR
to VFR tonight. The clouds should lift and/or break up Sat
morning, with VFR conditions expected for much of the day.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 552 PM CST Thu Feb 6 2025

Moderate Risk for Much Above Normal Precipitation:

The Climate Prediction Center has included the entire Tennessee
Valley region in a Moderate Risk for Much Above Normal Precipitation
between February 15-16, 2025. Precipitation exceeding 1.0 to 1.5
inches is possible during this period.

More information on the CPC U.S. Hazards Outlook can be found at:
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/threats.php

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HC
SHORT TERM....25
LONG TERM....KDW
AVIATION...RSB