107
FXUS64 KHUN 161931
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
231 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

...New NEAR TERM and Updated LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 855 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

 - High chances for showers return Saturday night into Sunday
   with a low chance of strong to severe storms.

 - Gusty winds 20-25 mph are expected Saturday afternoon through
   Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

Temperatures at present are in the upper 70s to lower 80s across
the local area. Clear skies with several more hours of heating
this afternoon make our forecast highs (lower to mid 80s) still
reasonable. Thus, the forecast remains on track with no major
changes needed.

Previous Discussion:

Upper level ridging and surface high pressure will persist over
the region today, leading to another mostly clear, dry day for the
Tennessee Valley. Highs are forecast to be a touch warmer today,
reaching the lower to mid 80s. For tonight, mostly clear skies
with light winds are expected. Even with mostly clear skies that
would lead to good radiational cooling, dew point depressions look
to be fairly large, leading to low confidence in much fog
development. Overall, no impactful weather is anticipated today,
but please keep an eye on the weather this weekend as storms
return to the forecast (see more details in the long term
discussion below).

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday)
Issued at 855 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

Upper level ridging will dominate the Southeast on Friday, but
begin to shift east Friday evening and through the day on Saturday
as an upper trough approaches the region. Similarly, surface high
pressure will begin to shift east on Saturday as a surface cold
front approaches the Tennessee Valley. No rain is forecast
through Saturday, but that will change come Sunday evening/night
(see discussion below). Highs in the lower to mid 80s are
forecast, increasing into the mid to upper 80s along and west of
I-65 on Saturday as moisture increases ahead of the aforementioned
cold front.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 939 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

[230PM Thu Oct 16 UPDATE] - SPC has expanded the marginal risk
(level 1 of 5) to areas west of I-65 for Saturday (night) into
Sunday. A few things we are watching are how quickly the upper
trough and surface cold front move through the Tennessee Valley.
This will affect timing of the storms through the local area and
also the amount of surface based instability for storms.
Currently, there looks to be a cap in place during overnight hours
on Saturday and limited instability, which is during the bulk of
the anticipated timeframe mentioned this morning. However, there
is ample shear to sustain convection. We`ll continue to monitor
this, but please make sure to stay weather aware and check back
for updates. Have multiple ways of receiving warning information!

[9AM Thu Oct 16 UPDATE] - Current thinking for strong to severe
storms Saturday night into Sunday morning remains the same, with
the main threats being damaging winds and heavy rain. Confidence
is low in the occurrence of hail and any tornadoes, but this will
be monitored. Confidence in exact timing is also low, but at this
point 10PM Saturday (into NW AL) through 9AM Sunday (though NE AL)
is the main window. This will be refined in the next day or so as
Hi-Res model guidance comes in (Saturday night into Sunday is a
bit outside their range at present). Additionally, SPC has
recently outlooked the far northwestern portion of Alabama in a
marginal risk (level 1 of 5) of severe weather Saturday into
Sunday. Overall, make sure to stay weather aware and check back
for updates. Have multiple ways of receiving warning information,
especially since this looks to be an overnight event!

Our long stretch of dry weather comes to end Saturday night as a
sfc low pressure system moves across the Midwest with a cold front
draped to its south that is forecast to swing through the
Tennessee Valley. Expect high chances for showers to begin late
Saturday night into Sunday with the cold front passage. Chances
for thunderstorms remain low and the probabilities for strong to
severe storms appears very low at this time. If any strong storms
do develop along the front, gusty winds will be the primary
concern given good deep layer shear. However, forecast instability
remains quite low limiting the likelihood of deep convection.
Flooding threat appears low as well given the quick movement of
the front and the antecedent dry conditions.

As the front passes through the area, expect gradient winds to
increase 20-25 mph on Sunday. These will be ushering in another
Fall airmass with temperatures expected to drop Sunday night into
the low to mid 40s. The Fall weather pattern continues through the
middle of next week with afternoon highs topping out in the 70s
Monday through Wednesday. Model guidance is suggesting another
weak cold front passing through the area on Tuesday
night/Wednesday which may bring a low chance for showers, but
confidence remains low in precip given the lack of moisture return
ahead of the front.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1145 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period.
NE winds this afternoon will gust 10-15 knots before becoming
light and variable this evening.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM....26
LONG TERM....26/GH
AVIATION...GH