747
FXUS64 KHUN 050324
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
924 PM CST Wed Dec 4 2024

...New NEAR TERM...

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of tonight)
Issued at 924 PM CST Wed Dec 4 2024

A weak disturbance will clip the Tennessee Valley overnight,
bringing low to medium (20-50%) chances for light rain showers
over the next 3-5 hours (before tapering off after 2-3 AM from
north to south). A cooler and drier air mass will filter into the
region in wake of the precipitation as temperatures will drop off
into the low to mid 30s in most locations by early Thursday
morning. Adjusted PoPs up slightly though Midnight to account for
the latest radar trends, but everything remains on track.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday night)
Issued at 114 PM CST Wed Dec 4 2024

Dry weather will persist through the short term period, but the
main concern will be the arrival of the coldest airmass we have
felt since this past winter. A brutally cold and dry airmass will
advect into the region on Thursday as gusty northwesterly winds
keep wind chills in the 30s all day. It will certainly be a day to
bundle up if spending time outdoors as well as protecting yourself
from the colder wind which could gust up to 25-30mph at times.
Single digit dewpoint temperatures will arrive tomorrow afternoon,
making for not only a cold but a very dry airmass through the end
of the work week. Highs will range from the upper 30s/mid 40s each
afternoon while overnight lows drop into the mid teens and lower
20s. The coldest night will be Thursday night into Friday morning,
where lows range from 15-19 degrees area wide and wind chills
approach the single digits. Although the current forecast does not
meet the new Cold Weather Advisory criteria of 5 degrees, this
cold air will pose a threat to those without adequate
heating/clothing and cold related illness may occur for those
spending long periods of time outdoors, especially tomorrow night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 417 AM CST Wed Dec 4 2024

A transition in the broader scale longwave pattern is still
expected to unfold this weekend that will result in a return to
warmer/wetter conditions across the TN Valley. This will occur as
the persistent longwave trough (across eastern North America)
begins to lift out to the northeast, while an upstream trough
evolves across the western/central CONUS. A weak cutoff upper low
(initially across the southwestern U.S. deserts) will be ejected
northeastward into the central Plains by Sunday afternoon ahead of
the amplifying longwave trough to its immediate northwest. As
this occurs, rain within a warm conveyor belt to the east of the
system will expand northeastward from south TX into central AR
Saturday night, with the leading of this precipitation regime
expected to reach the western half of our forecast area by late
Sunday afternoon.

Precipitation will become fairly widespread region-wide during
the morning hours on Monday as synoptic scale lift will be
enhanced by a sheared mid-level trough (remnants of the cutoff
low) that will shift east-northeastward early next week. In the
wake of this initial round of rainfall (which should be ending
early Monday afternoon), additional showers and perhaps even a few
thunderstorms may develop along another cold front that will drop
southeastward into the CWFA Tuesday afternoon. Storm total
rainfall amounts look to be in the 1-2" range, which will provide
some beneficial relief from the recent drought. As we have
mentioned previously, warmer temps are in store over the course of
the extended period, with highs reaching the l-m 60s Monday and
lows warming into the l-m 50s by Tuesday morning.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 613 PM CST Wed Dec 4 2024

VFR conditions will continue until late this evening when low
stratus move in as ceilings lower to between 1.5 to 2.5 kft after
Midnight (along with low chances of a few light showers). Winds
will also become gusty out of the WSW to west around 15-20 kts,
with some LLWS possible at KMSL between 03-08z. Low status will
begin to scatter out by mid-morning and a return to VFR
conditions is expected.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...AMP.24
SHORT TERM....25
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...AMP