450
FXUS64 KHUN 191134
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
534 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 420 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025

The surface low over eastern Georgia and the Carolinas finally
starts to move quickly northeast through the eastern CONUS today.
As it does so, light precipitation continues to develop in most
model guidance on the backside of it. Temperatures are still
above freezing in most locations, but have fallen to freezing in
some locations in southern middle Tennessee at this hour. This
precipitation will start out as rain/drizzle before transitioning
to scattered areas of very light snow based on most sounding
profiles. Most guidance shows the bulk of this precipitation
occurring more over southern middle Tennessee and near or just
south of the TN/AL border and lasting into the mid afternoon hours
before ending.

Highs will likely be close to current values in the lower to mid
30s and should slowly drop today. Temperatures should drop into
and remain in the upper 20s to lower 30s in most locations through
the day, especially with the persistent cloud cover and scattered
precipitation expected. Very little snowfall accumulation is
expected, but a dusting to maybe around a half of an inch mainly
in highest elevations along the Cumberland Plateau. With NW winds
of 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 20 mph at times, temperatures
will feel colder, only the teens to lower 20s today.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 420 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025

The bitterly cold Arctic air really settles into northern Alabama
and southern middle Tennessee tonight into Monday. Models continue
to show extremely strong cold air advection tonight with 925 mb
temperatures falling to between 8 and 16 degrees below zero. The
strength of this cold air advection should push surface temperatures
into the upper single digits to lower teens. Winds will drop off
slightly overnight to around 10 mph gusting up to 20 mph briefly
at times. This will setup an even more dangerous situation if
outside. Resulting wind chill values will make it feel like
temperatures drop into the -5 to 5 degree range early Monday
morning. Thus, a Cold Weather Advisory remains in effect from
midnight tonight through noon on Monday. If temperatures drop a
few degrees or winds are slightly more elevated, then wind chill
values between 5 and 10 below zero might become widespread enough
in some counties east of the I-65. A Extreme Cold Warning may be
needed for portions of the area if the forecast trends that way.

Despite sunny skies on Monday, with the very strong cold air
advection expected with this arctic airmass shifting further
southeast, highs will be hard pressed to reach the lower to mid
20s. With NW winds 5 to 10 mph and maybe a few gusts up to 15
mph, wind chill values will likely be hard pressed to get out of
the lower to mid teens in some areas (mainly NE AL and southern
middle Tennessee).

Models continue to be consistent with a storm system developing
in the Gulf of Mexico Monday night through Tuesday night. The
trend continues to be that the surface low in the Gulf forms in
the southern portion of the Gulf of Mexico and moves E or ENE
during that period. This would keep the bulk of any precipitation
along Gulf coastal states and likely only as far north as
southern/central Georgia and Alabama given the strong push of the
arctic airmass (much colder/drier air) southeast in guidance.

Mid/high clouds north of the storm system in the Gulf of Mexico
will likely make it into central and northern Alabama Monday
night into Tuesday, and some virga may creep into northern Alabama
in the afternoon. This should help to modify dewpoints a tad and
help to keep overnight lows Monday night into Tuesday a bit warmer
- mid teens. However, it will also help to keep highs on Tuesday
below freezing in most locations (upper 20s).

As the surface high shifts into the northeastern U.S. on Tuesday
night into Wednesday, winds should become lighter and skies should
be clear. This produce a better radiational cooling setup for the
Tennessee Valley region. Thus, overnight lows could drop lower
into the single digits to lower teens again. We could be flirting
with wind chill values Tuesday night into Wednesday dropping to
zero to 5 below again. The good news is that highs might finally
get above freezing Wednesday afternoon with abundant sunshine
expected.

 &&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 420 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025

A continued slight warming trend is expected into the end of next
week. Model guidance is drier Thursday through Sunday as a dry
clipper system pushes through the area. This builds a second large
cold area of high over the southeast. This doesn`t look quite as
cold as the previous shot of cold air. With abundant sunshine
highs will finally climb back into the upper 30s to 40s again.
Lows will moderate back into the lower 20s. A warming trend
continues into early next week, as zonal flow aloft become
entrenched over the area.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 420 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025

A continued slight warming trend is expected into the end of next
week. Model guidance is drier Thursday through Sunday as a dry
clipper system pushes through the area. This builds a second large
cold area of high over the southeast. This doesn`t look quite as
cold as the previous shot of cold air. With abundant sunshine
highs will finally climb back into the upper 30s to 40s again.
Lows will moderate back into the lower 20s. A warming trend
continues into early next week, as zonal flow aloft become
entrenched over the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 534 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025

IFR to MVFR CIGS will continue through 21Z or 22Z at both
terminals. There is a low chance (~20-30%) of -RA moving into
northern Alabama between 12Z and 14Z. Any precipitation should
quickly change from a mix of -RASN to -SHSN between 14Z and 20Z.
Chances are too low to include -SN or -RA specifically at this
time. Models have CIGS lifting and becoming VFR, shortly after the
precipitation moves east of the terminals around 21Z/22Z. NW
winds of 10 to 15 knots gusting up to 25 knots should lessen after
9Z at both terminals and remain around 10 knots through the
remainder of the TAF period.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KTW
SHORT TERM....KTW
LONG TERM....KTW
AVIATION...KTW