185
FXUS66 KHNX 100018 AAA
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
418 PM PST Sat Nov 9 2024


...Updated Air Quality and Aviation Section...

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

1. There is a 75 to 95 percent chance of a high temperature of
at least 70 degrees through Monday in the San Joaquin Valley
before lowering less than 10 percent on Tuesday. The
probabilities climb back up to 25 to 55 percent for Wednesday
and Thursday.

2. There is a 40 to 70 percent chance of a tenth of an inch of
rain or more between Monday afternoon and Tuesday morning for
most of the San Joaquin Valley north of Kern County. Chances
are 20 to 40 percent for Kern County.

3. There is a 30 to 45 percent probability of 2 inches of snow
or more above 7000 feet between Monday afternoon and Tuesday
morning near Yosemite with lower probabilities and snowfall
amounts further south in the Sierra Nevada.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
A weak upper level ridge is currently centered over the western
United States, continuing seasonable conditions across central
California today that will prevail through the remainder of the
weekend. Maximum afternoon temperatures in the San Joaquin
Valley are projected to be in the low 70s today and Sunday,
around two to five degrees above normal for this time of year. A
weak upper level trough in the eastern Pacific will slowly
approach the region this evening, but is expected to break down
on approach. Some moisture associated with the trough will
entrain across California, resulting in slightly increased cloud
cover overnight, though no precipitation is expected. The lack
of moisture associated with this trough will struggle to raise
the relative humidity in the San Joaquin Valley, with minimum
values during the day remaining around 15 to 25 percent and as
such, there is still an elevated risk for fire danger in the
area.

A pattern change will come Monday into Tuesday as a stronger
upper level low pressure system tracks into the Pacific
Northwest region. A deep trough is anticipated to extend south
along the west coast from the center of the trough, entering
central California late Monday into Tuesday morning. Conditions
during the day on Monday ahead of the trough will be mainly
representative of the weekend, with temperatures a few degrees
above normal for this time of year. However, there will be
increased moisture associated with this early week trough due to
stronger southwesterly winds aloft. The National Blend of
Models expresses a 40 to 70 percent chance for 24 hour rainfall
totals to exceed one tenth of an inch for the San Joaquin Valley
north of Kern County; Kern County has a 20 to 40 percent chance
of these values.

Snow levels have trended down from the previous few days to
6,500 to 7,000 feet on the front side of the trough to below
5,000 feet behind the central axis. The combination of
additional moisture and these lowered snow levels will bring a
moderate to high chance for snowfall to the Sierra Nevada. The
following are probabilities from the Weather Prediction Center
for various snowfall total thresholds associated with this
system.


                 >=0.1"     >=1"      >=2"      >=4"
Tioga Pass         89%      71%       42%        3%
Tuolumne Meadows   86%      64%       29%        0%
Yosemite Valley    63%      30%        8%        0%
Badger Pass        76%      44%        9%        0%
Wawona             44%       7%        0%        0%
Glacier Point      63%      26%        6%        0%
Crane Flat         33%       0%        0%        0%
Huntington Lake    64%      25%        3%        0%
Wishon Lake        47%      15%        1%        0%
Lodgepole          37%       5%        0%        0%

Along with the probabilities for precipitation, the trough will
bring increased winds to central California, particularly the
Sierra Nevada crests Monday evening, followed by the Kern County
Desert and Mojave Slopes on the backside of the system Tuesday.
Areas including Tioga Pass and Mammoth Lakes have a 60 to 70
percent chance to experience wind gusts greater than 40 miles
per hour. Meanwhile, there are similar probabilities for wind
gusts to exceed 50 miles per hour in and around the town of
Mojave Tuesday. These elevated wind gusts Tuesday will be due to
winds on the backside of the trough directed from the
northwest. These winds will also bring a cooldown to the region,
with the San Joaquin Valley struggling to get out of the 60s;
NBM ensemble guidance shows a 70 to 90 percent chance for
temperatures to remain below 67 degrees Tuesday afternoon.

In the midweek period, a weak ridge of high pressure will warm
temperatures back near normal with a 70 to 90 percent chance to
exceed 67 degrees Wednesday and Thursday. Otherwise, conditions
will be similar to those experienced over this weekend. Cluster
analysis from the Weather Prediction Center continues to point
towards another trough propagating into central California from
the Gulf of Alaska. In contrast to the system earlier in the
week, this late week system appears favorable to deepen further
southward, driving additional moisture and colder air into our
region.

&&


.AVIATION...
0Z Update

VFR conditions will prevail across the Central CA Interior for the
next 24 hours.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
On Sunday November 10 2024, Fireplace/Wood Stove Burning Status is:
No Burning Unless Registered in Fresno, Kern, Kings, and Madera
Counties. Burning Discouraged in Merced and Tulare Counties, and
Kern (Greater Frazier Park Area) and Sequoia National Park and
Forest.




&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

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