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FXUS66 KHNX 050131 AAA
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Hanford CA
531 PM PST Wed Dec 4 2024

.UPDATE...
Updated AIR QUALITY ISSUES section.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

1. Dry weather will prevail through the week with above average
temperatures.

2. A cooling trend will set up in the late weekend to early next
week with temperatures near average for this time of year. There
is a 10 to 40 percent chance for morning low temperatures below
freezing Tuesday morning in the rural areas of the San Joaquin
Valley.

3. Nighttime and morning fog, locally dense in the early
morning, remains possible each day through next week in the San
Joaquin Valley.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A stagnant upper level air pattern has set up over much of the
western United States today in the form of a Rex Block. In this
pattern, an area of high pressure sits to the north of our
region, with an area of low pressure to the south. Cyclonic flow
around the low and anticyclonic flow around the high is
diverting upper level moisture away from the Pacific coast
through mainland Canada and Baja California. The prevailing
conditions as a result of the blocking pattern will keep
conditions dry across central California with temperatures above
season averages through the weekend.

These stable conditions are conducive for the development of
Tule Fog each overnight and morning period in the San Joaquin
Valley through much of this week. Clearing conditions each day
will allow the surface and soil moisture to evaporate overnight,
condensing at the surface in large part due to minimal winds and
subsiding air aloft. Visibilities across the valley will
generally be less than a quarter mile with localized areas
experiencing less than 200 feet.

Though temperatures will remain above average, a slight
cooldown is expected to happen on Friday as the aforementioned
area of low pressure strengthens, digging deeper into the desert
southwest region. Cyclonic flow around this system will shift
winds from the north, pulling in cooler air from the Pacific
northwest. Temperatures will only vary by one to two degrees
across the region compared to the rest of the week. An upper
level ridging pattern will soon follow, warming temperatures
Saturday to around five degrees above normal.

A pattern change appears favorable in the late weekend to early
week period as a stronger upper level system pushes into the
Pacific Northwest region from the Gulf of Alaska. The system
will turn winds out of the northwest, with cooler air entraining
over central California as it digs southward on Monday.
Afternoon temperatures are expected to cool near normal for this
time of year. In addition, there is a 10 to 40 percent chance
from the National Blend of Models for lows to fall below
freezing Tuesday morning. This cooler, continental air mass is
unlikely to bring any significant precipitation to our region,
with the NBM showing less than a 20 percent probability for 0.01
inches of rainfall in the high elevations of the Sierra Nevada
through 4 AM PST next Wednesday.

The following are probabilities from the NBM to exceed 65
degrees each day through Sunday for various locations of the
San Joaquin Valley.

              Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday
Bakersfield      65%      30%      25%    40%     10%
Coalinga         80%      75%      55%    70%     20%
Fresno           20%      10%      15%    15%      3%
Hanford          50%      30%      25%    15%      4%
Madera           50%      30%      20%    15%      4%
Merced           50%      30%      25%    15%      3%
Visalia          20%      10%      15%     5%      3%

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR/VFR conditions for the area will continue through 04Z
Thursday. MVFR/IFR conditions are favorable to develop again for
KMCE/KMER/KFAT/KVIS in mist and fog 06Z through 19Z. MVFR
conditions for KBFL for haze during similar time period.

High Sierra/Foothills/Kern County Desert: VFR few high clouds
for the next 24 hours.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
On Thursday December 5 2024, Unhealthy in Kern and Tulare
Counties. Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups in Fresno, Kings, and
Madera Counties. Fireplace/Wood Stove Burning Status is: No
Burning For All in Fresno, Kern, Madera, and Tulare Counties. No
Burning Unless Registered in Kings and Merced Counties. Burning
Discouraged in Kern (Greater Frazier Park Area) and Sequoia
National Park and Forest.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

public/aviation...SM
idss..............EW

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