Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
653 FXUS66 KHNX 292207 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 307 PM PDT Sun Sep 29 2024 .UPDATE... Air Quality Section Updated. && && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Dry conditions and warmer than average temperatures prevail until next week. There is a 70 to 90 percent chance of triple digit heat returning to the Central Valley by the middle of the week. 2. Low afternoon humidity will occur in many locations along with poor to moderate overnight recoveries in the mountains and deserts. 3. The 8-14 day temperature outlook from the CLimate Prediction Center expresses a 50 to 60 percent chance for above normal conditions in the San Joaquin Valley and Kern County Desert with a 60 to 70 percent chance for the central and southern Sierra Nevada. && .DISCUSSION... A strong shortwave has moved over Central California today, leading to slightly cooler temperatures and a touch stronger winds for the region. This shortwave will weaken by tomorrow with a ridge building in it`s place, which means the these temperatures will be short-lived. As the ridge builds into the west coast through the beginning of October, the San Joaquin Valley can expect afternoon highs to rise into the triple digit range, with the hottest days on Tuesday through Thursday. The probability for triple digits on those days are 70-90%. As we move into Friday, the ridge will have moved to the east, causing temperatures to drop below the 100 degree range. However, temperatures will still be well above normal for this time of year. Low humidities and poor recoveries will continue to be an issue for the next week, especially over the hotter parts of the mid week as temperatures warm up further. Winds will also continue to be mostly light and terrain-driven. The long term forecast is showing a slight cooling trend by mid next week, with current models seeing a 50-70% probability for 90 degrees or lower next Wednesday, but these temperatures are still expected to be above normal for the time of year. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions will prevail across the Central CA Interior over the next 24 hours. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... ISSUED: 09/29/2024 12:59 EXPIRES: 09/30/2024 23:59 None. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Public/Aviation/Fire Weather........EW DSS/PIO.............................CM weather.gov/hanford