Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
330 FXUS66 KHNX 161646 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 946 AM PDT Fri May 16 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Slightly above average temperatures with dry conditions prevail today. 2. A cooldown occurs this weekend, with gusty winds by Saturday afternoon over the mountain ridges and peaks, as well as the Kern County desert. Elsewhere, winds will be noticeably stronger. 3. A 10-15 percent chance of afternoon and evening thunderstorms exists in the Sierra Nevada on Saturday. 4. Increased winds combined with low humidity on Sunday and Monday will lead to a risk for large grass fires in the San Joaquin Valley. 5. Above normal temperatures are expected next week. && .DISCUSSION... Some high clouds are moving over our portion of Central California at this time. Today will be slightly warmer than yesterday, though not unseasonable. Noticeably cooler temperatures and stronger winds occur on Saturday and Sunday as an upper-level trough passes over Northern CA into the Great Basin. Much of the moisture and dynamics will pass to our north, although a slight chance of thunderstorms is forecast for the Sierra Nevada, though mainly in the higher elevations. The chances for Saturday are around 10-15 percent, while Sunday`s have lowered to around 5-10 percent. Precipitation amounts are even lighter for Saturday, or up to a few hundredths of an inch with a dusting of snow over the highest elevations. Strong and gusty winds develop this weekend in the Kern County desert and over the ridges and peaks along the Sierra Nevada crest, with the highest impacts likely at the Mojave Desert slopes (including Mojave). In addition, the risk for large grass fires exists in the Central Valley for this weekend, though with a better chance for Sunday due to the combination of lower humidity with the stronger winds. Winds on Monday won`t be quite as strong, but the temperatures will be warmer than on Sunday and will keep daytime humidity low. So, we can`t rule out the possibility for grass fires on that day as well. Enjoy the mild, more spring-like temperatures while they last, as a longer period of above average temperatures commences Tuesday. A ridge of high pressure will build and remain anchored over much of the Southwestern U.S. for the rest of next week. Probabilities for highs in the 90`s in the warmest locations are at a minimum of 70 to 90 percent for Tuesday until at least the next few days. Triple digit heat becomes a possibility once again by Thursday, including in both the SJ Valley and Kern County desert, or at 20-40 percent chance. Other locations besides Kern County could see their first triple digit day for this year by then. While probabilities for triple digit readings are a bit lower for next Friday (about 10-30%, with the best chances in the desert), summer-like temperatures could persist for quite some time, based on the latest 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks from the Climate Prediction Center, with a probability of above 50 to 60 percent of above average temperatures. && .AVIATION... 18Z Update: VFR conditions along with light winds will prevail for the next 24 hours across the Central California Interior. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... None. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... High Wind Warning from 2 PM Saturday to 2 AM PDT Monday for CAZ338. Wind Advisory from 2 PM Saturday to 2 AM PDT Sunday for CAZ337- 339. && $$ BSO/EW weather.gov/hanford