Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
607 FXUS66 KHNX 101056 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 256 AM PST Fri Jan 10 2025 && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Dry conditions and seasonable temperatures continue for much of the next week. 2. The next best chance for strong winds is Monday through next Wednesday with a shortwave trough impacting the Kern County Desert and Mojave Slopes. 3. Possible widespread freezing temperatures Monday and Tuesday morning in the San Joaquin Valley with a 40 to 80 percent probability of dropping below 32 for several hours outside of urban areas. && .DISCUSSION... A riding aloft is being broken down by a shortwave moving through PacNW. As the wave moves through and turns northerly aloft. The pattern should keep the Tule Fog away from the region. This allows for temperatures to fall to near freezing outside of the urban areas. This morning and Saturday morning with the upper wave moving through keep enough mixing to keep temperatures up. The only threat area is the southwest section of the San Joaquin Valley with a 20 to 40 percent probability of falling below 32 degrees this morning and Saturday morning. Sunday into Tuesday another inside slider drops through the Great Basin, however this time is anticipated to develop a cut- off by Wednesday morning off the coast of Southern California. No precipitation is expected through the period. The impacts will be Kern County Desert/Mojave Slope wind and San Joaquin Valley freezing temperatures. The flow aloft weakens under the upper low. This will allow for more radiational cooling and if the skies remain clear and we avoid the Tule Fog temperatures will fall to at or below 32 degrees outside of the heat islands. The probability of falling below 32 goes up to 30 to 95 percent for the rural areas Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday mornings. The threat of a Freeze products is very high nightly for those mornings. The issue would be fog/stratus development that would keep temperatures up just enough to avoid freezing. Wind for the Kern County Desert and Mojave Slopes the peak threat looks like Tuesday night into Wednesday. The upper cross the Sierra and is off shore at this time. A strong 1040 MB high will be somewhere in the northern Great Basin with low pressure off shore. The pressure gradient sets up across the Sierra for a low end Mono wind, advisory level is still a maybe, with probability of exceeding 45 mph for wind gusts at 15 to 30 percent at the highest elevations. The highest impact area at this time is near Jawbone and along Highway 14 and then US 395 where a probability of exceeding 45 mph is 30 to 75 percent on the NBM probs. Thursday and next Friday wind relaxes and temperatures moderate enough to reduce the threat of impacts in the region. The upper low weakens and gets caught up in the main flow and exits as another piece of upper level energy beings to slide down towards the region from the north. The CPC 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks continue the trend of normal to below normal temperatures and below normal precipitation for Interior Central California. && .AVIATION... 12z In the San Joaquin Valley, VFR is the general rule early on in the forecast with the exception of KVIS-KHJO where VSBY will be MVFR to 20-30 percent probability of IFR/LIFR through 18Z. 18-06Z VFR. AFT 06Z the region has a 20-40 percent probability of MVFR for all locations and KVIS 60-80 percent. IFR 20-30 percent for the same time period for all locations and then KVIS 30 to 50 percent. Elsewhere, VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... ISSUED: 01/09/2025 13:36 EXPIRES: 01/10/2025 23:59 On Friday January 10 2025, Fireplace/Wood Stove Burning Status is: No Burning Unless Registered in Fresno, Kern, Kings, Madera, Merced, and Tulare Counties. Burning Discouraged in Kern (Greater Frazier Park Area) and Sequoia National Park and Forest. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Operations...Proton DSS..........EW weather.gov/hanford