440
FXUS66 KHNX 011021
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
321 AM PDT Tue Oct 1 2024


&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

1. Dry conditions and warmer than average temperatures will
prevail until next week. There is a 70 to 90 percent chance of
triple digit heat returning to the Central Valley by the middle
of the week.

2. A Heat Advisory is in effect for the San Joaquin Valley, West
Side Hills, and Sierra Foothills from 11 AM PDT this morning
through 11 PM PDT Thursday.

3. Low afternoon humidity will occur in many locations along
with poor to moderate overnight recoveries in the mountains and
desert.

4. The 6-10 and 8-14 day temperatures outlooks from the CLimate
Prediction Center express a 60 to 90 percent chance of above
average temperatures across the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

An upper level high pressure ridging pattern is continuing to
dominate over central California this morning. As the week
progresses, the ridge will gradually move into the western
United States, bringing warmer-than-average temperatures and dry
conditions to the local area as the air aloft stagnates. A Heat
Advisory is in effect for the San Joaquin Valley, West Side
Hills, and Sierra Foothills valid from 11 AM PDT this morning
through 11 PM PDT Thursday due to triple digit heat up to 20
degrees above normal for this time of year. The following are
probabilities to reach or exceed 100 degrees for select
locations in the San Joaquin Valley this week.

              Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday
Bakersfield     55%      75%      75%     50%      15%
Coalinga        30%      85%      75%     15%       5%
Fresno          75%      85%      90%     60%      30%
Hanford         70%      85%      90%     65%      40%
Madera          75%      95%      95%     65%      45%
Merced          55%      90%      85%     50%      30%
Visalia         55%      60%      75%     40%      15%

In addition to the above probabilities, temperatures this week
have a chance to exceed all time October monthly records.

                October       Year of      Chance to
              Record High     Record      Break Record
Bakersfield       104          1933            5%
Fresno            102          1980           65%
Merced            102          1905           70%
Madera            101          1961           90%
Hanford           101          1996           85%

A slight cooling trend is conceivable towards this weekend as
the aforementioned ridge centers over the Four Corners region
starting Friday. The anticyclonic flow around the area of high
pressure, combined with cyclonic flow around a weak upper level
low in the eastern Pacific, will shift winds to the southwest
over central California. This change in winds will contribute to
afternoon highs falling below 100 degrees again Saturday and
Sunday, but temperatures will remain up to ten degrees above
average. Little movement is expected from the upper level high
pressure system, continuing these conditions and driving down
temperatures into next week.

These conditions appear favorable to extend into the longer
term, with minimal deviation anticipated. This is backed up by
the Climate Prediction Center, which expresses a 70 to 90
percent chance for above normal temperatures in the 6-10 day
period and a 50 to 70 percent chance in the 8-14 day time frame.


&&


.AVIATION...
MVFR conditions are possible in and around areas of wildfire
smoke. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail across the
Central CA Interior over the next 24 hours.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ISSUED:  09/30/2024 14:13
EXPIRES: 10/01/2024 23:59
None.



&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM PDT Thursday
for CAZ300>322.
&&

$$

public/aviation...SM
IDSS.............VJP

weather.gov/hanford