635
FXUS66 KHNX 222249
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
249 PM PST Wed Jan 22 2025

.UPDATE...
Aviation and Air Quality Sections Updated

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.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Dry weather will continue through Friday with above average
high temperatures and below average low temperatures across the
San Joaquin Valley.

2. There is a 15 to 45 percent chance of a tenth of an inch of
rain on Saturday through Sunday for the San Joaquin Valley.

3. The Kern County Mountains have a 50 to 65 percent chance of
an inch of snow or more above 4,000 feet and a 40 percent chance
of a dusting of snow at 3,500 feet over the weekend.

4. Sierra Nevada has a 25 to 45 percent chance of 2 inches or
more of snow over the weekend.

5. Monday morning through next Wednesday morning have a 30 to
60 percent chance of freezing temperatures.

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.DISCUSSION...
This morning, we had freezing temperatures again but are warming
up to above average high temepratures today thanks to the ridge
over us. Latest probabilities show a 35 percent chance or less
of freezing temperatures overnight tonight into Thursday morning
so the Freeze Warning was expired as of this morning.

Latest ensembles agree that a trough will slide south from
Canada beginning Friday into Saturday which will retrograde to
be over California Saturday into Sunday. This new trough brings
a 15 to 45 percent chance of a tenth of an inch or more of rain
in the Valley. However, this trough will be cold as snow levels
are forecast to drop to 3,500 to 4,000 feet by Sunday morning.
This does not bode well as there is a 50 to 65 percent chance of
an inch or more of snow for the Kern County mountain
communities including Pine Mountain Club and Tehachapi. Down
around 3,500 feet there is a 40 percent chance of a dusting of
snow Saturday night into Sunday. Both Tejon and Tehachapi passes
are possible to face impacts due to how much snow is expected
and how low the snow level is. Snow will also been in the Sierra
Nevada as there is a 25 to 45 percent chance of 2 inches or more
of snow above 4,000 feet Saturday through Sunday morning.

The ensembles have better agreement this afternoon as they keep
the trough over Southern California on Monday before slowly
sliding east. The ensembles have a weak tilted ridge moving in
too. The departure of the trough brings the possibility of
another round of Santa Ana winds to our south and easterly winds
to our desert area in Eastern Kern County. Freezing
temperatures make a return with a 30 to 60 percent chance of
freezing temperatures in the rural areas Monday morning through
Wednesday morning. Latest CPC outlook has a change in
temperatures from having a 50 to 70 percent chance of below
average temperatures in the 6 to 10 day outlook to having equal
chances of above and below average temperatures in the 8 to 14
day outlook. However, a drier pattern continues to hold as both
outlooks have a 33 to 50 percent chance of below average
precipitation.


&&


.AVIATION...
00Z Update:
VFR conditions will prevail through 6Z for the San Joaquin
Valley. Between 6Z and 9Z, MVFR conditions creep in for mist
with a 20 percent chance or less of LIFR to IFR visibilities in
fog between 12Z and 16Z. VFR conditions will return to the
Valley by around 18Z. For the rest of Central California, VFR
conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ISSUED:  01/22/2025 14:09
EXPIRES: 01/23/2025 23:59
On Thursday January 23 2025,  Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups in
Fresno County.  Fireplace/Wood Stove Burning Status is: No Burning
For All in Fresno County. No Burning Unless Registered in Kern,
Kings, Madera, Merced, and Tulare Counties. Burning Discouraged in
Kern (Greater Frazier Park Area) and Sequoia National Park and
Forest.



&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

JPK

weather.gov/hanford