Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
813 FXUS66 KHNX 281751 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 144 AM PST Fri Feb 28 2025 && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. High Wind Warning through 7 PM this evening for the Grapevine. Wind gusts at higher elevations above 60 mph. Gusts to 40 to 50 mph along the I-5. 2. There is a high probability for above normal maximum temperatures Today. 3. Cool down begins later this evening lasting into early next week. 4. Precipitation chances increase this weekend, with another round midweek. && .DISCUSSION... The ridge that has been over the Golden State is being displaced by an upper low pushing into southern California. The primary impact issue will be Grapevine wind. The higher elevations are gusting into the warning levels early this morning. The probability of gusts above 60 mph is 15 to 40 percent through the morning hours. The probability of gusts above 45 mph is 40 to 70 percent for the highway level through late morning. Otherwise it is back to maximum temperatures approaching record levels again this afternoon. A table of records and probability of exceedance (PoE) is below: Location Record Year Set PoE of Record Merced 80 2020 10% Madera 82 2020 1% Fresno 83 2020 1% Hanford 80 1924 20% Bakersfield 83 2020 15% On Saturday the upper low moves across southern California this brings a 10 to 20 probability of rainfall to the Kern County Mountains and Desert region. Less than 10 percent elsewhere. Temperatures will be seven to ten degrees warmer still for the region with increasing cloud cover and possibilities of showers. Sunday a shortwave from the Pacific drops into Central California on Sunday. The PoE of a tenth of an inch of rainfall from the San Joaquin Valley is 40 to 60 percent, the Sierra 60 to 90 percent, and less than 10 percent for the deserts. Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) increases late in the afternoon and early evening. The low top thunderstorm index also supports thunder during this time period. The probability of thunder is the highest in the San Joaquin Valley at 10 to 15 percent. The storms are anticipated to have very low impacts main hazard will be brief heavy rainfall. Probability of snowfall in excess of eight inches remains fairly low for the Sierra mainly 20 to 40 percent. China Peak and the highest elevations have a 40 to 70 percent chance. Will have to monitor for possible winter highlights for the Sierra on Sunday. On the Desert side wind becomes an issue again. The probability of winds exceeding 60 mph along the Mojave Slopes is 50 to 85 percent. After today`s event finishes a watch or warning looks to be certain starting Sunday and continuing through Monday. The upper low exits the area on Monday with residual precipitation lasting into the afternoon before ridging builds into the region. The is not expected to kick temperatures up much with them remaining near seasonal average. Tuesday the ridge remains over the region for another day. Wednesday and Thursday another upper low moves through the region for more precipitation. The probability of greater than quarter inch of rainfall in the San Joaquin Valley during the period is 20 to 50 percent. Snowfall in the High Sierra ranges from 20 to 40 percent for more than a foot of snow. && .AVIATION... 18Z Friday update: VFR conditions will prevail throughout the Central California interior for the next 24 hours. Through 03Z expect gusty wind to 35 mph across the Kern County Desert. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... ISSUED: 02/27/2025 15:26 EXPIRES: 02/28/2025 23:59 On Friday February 28 2025, Fireplace/Wood Stove Burning Status is: Burning Discouraged in Fresno, Kern, Kings, Madera, Merced, and Tulare Counties, and Kern (Greater Frazier Park Area) and Sequoia National Park and Forest. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is low. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... High Wind Warning until 7 PM PST Friday for CAZ335. && $$ Operations...Proton DSS/PIO......DS weather.gov/hanford