922
FXUS66 KHNX 072249
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
249 PM PST Fri Feb 7 2025

.UPDATE...
Air Quality and Aviation Sections Updated

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.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Gusty winds are anticipated along the Mojave Desert slopes
on Friday afternoon and evening. There is a 60 to 70 percent
chance of wind gusts exceeding 45 mph.

2. Cooler and drier weather is expected for the weekend into
the early portion of next week. There is a 30 to 70 percent
chance of freezing temperatures Sunday morning.

3. Rain and snow returns the middle of next week into the
weekend. There is a high confidence that this storm will be much
wetter and colder than average.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
This morning, we had a few remaining showers in the Sierra
Nevada and off the California coast. Some some showers are still
possible this afternoon but there is a 30 percent chance or less
of an accumulation of 0.05 inches or more in the Valley.
Tonight, we have colder air with mostly clear skies. However,
there is a 25 percent chance or less of freezing temperatures on
Saturday morning. This is thanks in part to the trough that
brought the latest storms to move eastward.

Model ensembles have a pattern of a dry trough over California
this weekend bringing cold air and dry conditions. There is a 30
to 70 percent chance of freezing temperatures on Sunday morning.
A Freeze Watch will be issued for Sunday morning. The ensembles
have a stronger trough sliding in Tuesday through the rest of
the week bringing in a stronger storm.

Right now, there is a high confidence that this storm will be
much wetter and colder than average. Majority of model solutions
are pointing to an impactful event but a few are not as
bullish. The divergence is due to the forecasted location of the
landfall and the strength of the atmospheric river. As of now,
there is a 55 to 95 percent chance of an inch or more of rain in
total from this storm in the Valley with a 25 to 60 percent
chance of 3 inches or more of rain in the foothills. In the
Sierra Nevada, there is a 40 to 90 percent chance of 24 inches
or more of snow. This bodes well with the CPC outlooks having a
33 to 50 percent chance of below average temperatures and a 40
to 70 percent chance of above average precipitation.

&&


.AVIATION...
00Z Forecast:
In the San Joaquin Valley, VFR conditions will be dominant
through 12Z with fog possible after 12Z in the eastern side of
the Valley. There is a 40 to 70 percent chance of fog along the
eastern side of the Valley from 12Z to 18Z.

In the Sierra Nevada and adjacent foothills, mountain obscuring
IFR in precipitation and low clouds will prevail thru 6z Fri.

In the Tehachapi Mountains, areas of mountain obscuring IFR in
precipitation and low clouds thru 06z Sat.

In the Mojave Desert portion of Kern County, VFR conditions will
prevail for the next 24 hours.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ISSUED:  02/07/2025 13:56
EXPIRES: 02/08/2025 23:59
On Saturday February 8 2025, Fireplace/Wood Stove Burning Status
is: Burning Discouraged in Fresno, Kern, Kings, Madera, Merced,
and Tulare Counties, and Kern (Greater Frazier Park Area) and
Sequoia National Park and Forest.



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.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 1 AM PST Saturday for CAZ338.
Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM PST Sunday for CAZ300>316.
&&

$$

public/aviation..........JPK
idss/pio.................DAS

weather.gov/hanford