105
FXHW01 KWNH 300758
PMDHI

Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
358 AM EDT Mon Sep 30 2024

Valid 00Z Tue Oct 01 2024 - 00Z Tue Oct 08 2024

Latest models and ensembles continue to show a persistent trade
pattern with mostly light windward/mountain-focused showers as
precipitable water values fluctuate in the near to slightly below
normal range.  Consensus shows moderate trades through Thursday,
followed by a period of lighter winds around Friday-Saturday as a
front to the north weakens surface high pressure.  Then expect
trades to rebound somewhat Sunday-Monday as high pressure builds
to the north once again.  Guidance still shows upper ridging in
place early-mid week and then a general trend toward cyclonic flow
aloft but with a lot of uncertainty for where smaller-scale
troughs/lows and ridges may exist from about Saturday onward.  So
far, these differences aloft do not seem to produce meaningful
differences in rainfall forecasts in the guidance but certain
locations/depth of features may still have some influence.
Preference aloft remains with the ensemble means until better
clustering emerges for the details.

Rausch

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