438
FXHW01 KWNH 070744
PMDHI

Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
244 AM EST Thu Nov 07 2024

Valid 00Z Fri Nov 08 2024 - 00Z Fri Nov 15 2024

Various guidance differences over the past several days
(especially involving the ECMWF) have finally converged today to
yield a coherent forecast through the period.  A series of
mid-latitude surface highs will maintain brisk to strong trades
through the period, focusing showers primarily over
windward/mountain locales. Expect winds to be from the northeast
late this week and then turn more easterly from the weekend
onward, with greatest strength over western islands this Thursday
and then across the state next Thursday when high pressure to the
north should be the strongest.  As recently advertised by most
machine learning models, the dynamical models have come into very
good agreement regarding sheared shortwave energy initially
dropping through the area and forming a weak upper low that should
retrograde south of the state during the weekend into next week.
Consensus shows precipitable water values below climatology late
this week and then perhaps rising to around normal levels or so
for a time during the weekend/early next week due to the upper
low.  Moisture may remain close to normal on average through next
Thursday with some fluctuations as drier/wetter pockets move along
within the trades.

Rausch

$$