276
FXHW01 KWNH 190741
PMDHI

Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
240 AM EST Sun Jan 19 2025

Valid 00Z Mon Jan 20 2025 - 00Z Mon Jan 27 2025

Moderate to brisk trade winds and generally light showers will
continue into early week. By Wednesday-Thursday though, the
guidance conitnues to indicate a cut-off upper low forming
near/north of Hawaii. The guidance has trended towards more
agreement with this setup the last few days, but continue to show
a lot of uncertainty in the specifics. The 00z ECMWF is the most
bullish with an upper low farther south/closer to the northern
islands, and as a result, stronger moisture transport and much
heavier rainfall over the central islands. While there is
agreement that a strong cold front will drop through Hawaii around
mid-week, bringing an uptick in precipitation, the coverage and
amounts of precipitation remain in flux. Gusty winds may also
accompany the frontal passage as well. At this point, would prefer
a solution closest to the ensemble means which are a good middle
ground between the farther north solutions and the ECMWF. This
setup will need to be closely monitored given the potential for
impactful weather. The low should lift out of the region by Friday
into Saturday, although the ECMWF does linger it longer. Another
cold front/amplified trough may approach the region Sunday into
Monday of next week.

Santorelli

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