009
FGUS74 KHGX 172156
ESFHGX
180957-
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON, TX
456 PM CDT Thu Oct 17 2024

...Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) long range
probabilistic outlook for the Colorado River Basin in Southeast Texas...


The Houston/Galveston National Weather Service Office has
implemented Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) for the
Colorado River Basin in Southeast Texas. AHPS enables the National
Weather Service to provide long-range probabilistic outlooks. This
service is also available on the internet.


In the table below, the 90 through 10 percent columns indicate the
chance the river could rise above the listed stage levels in the
next 90 days. Example: The Colorado River at Wharton has a flood
stage of 39 feet. There is a 50 percent chance the Wharton forecast
point will rise above 12.9 feet during the next 90 days.


           Chance of exceeding stages at specific locations
                  Valid 10/16/2024 - 01/14/2025


Location  fs(ft)       90%  80%  70%  60%  50%  40%  30%  20%  10%
------------------------------------------------------------------
Colorado River
 Columbus  34.0        9.5 10.2 12.1 12.6 13.4 15.0 17.8 22.7 33.1
 Wharton   39.0        8.3  9.1 11.4 11.9 12.9 14.7 18.4 24.1 35.6
 Bay City  44.0        3.8  5.1  7.0  7.6  8.7 10.6 15.2 20.0 30.3
 Matagorda  8.8        0.5  1.9  3.2  3.2  3.3  3.5  3.7  3.9  5.3


This long-range probabilistic outlook contains numbers that are
calculated using multiple scenarios from 50 years of historical
climatological and stream flow data. These numbers also take
into account current conditions of the river and soil moisture.
By providing the complete range of probabilistic numbers, the
level of risk associated with long-range planning decisions can
be determined.


Additional supportive data and explanation are available on the
internet at: https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/long_range.php?wfo=hgx
(internet address is all lower case).


Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued around the third
Thursday of every month.


$$