823
FGUS74 KHGX 161459
ESFHGX
170259-
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON, TX
859 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2025

...Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) long range
probabilistic outlook for the San Bernard River Basin in Southeast Texas...


The Houston/Galveston National Weather Service Office has
implemented Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) for the
San Bernard River Basin in Southeast Texas. AHPS enables the
National Weather Service to provide long-range probabilistic
outlooks. This service is also available on the internet.


In the table below, the 90 through 10 percent columns indicate the
chance the river could rise above the listed stage levels in the
next 90 days. Example: The San Bernard River near Boling has a flood
stage of 18 feet. There is a 50 percent chance the Boling
forecast point will rise above 14.4 feet during the next 90 days.


           Chance of exceeding stages at specific locations
                  Valid 01/15/2025 - 04/15/2025


Location       fs(ft)      90%  80%  70%  60%  50%  40%  30%  20%  10%
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
 East Bernard   17.0       9.1 10.9 12.0 14.1 14.6 15.5 16.1 16.5 17.5
 Boling         18.0       7.0  9.6 10.4 12.8 14.4 15.1 16.4 19.0 21.9
 Sweeny         16.0       1.7  1.7  1.7  2.4  2.5  3.0  4.3  5.9  7.7


This long-range probabilistic outlook contains numbers that are
calculated using multiple scenarios from 50 years of historical
climatological and stream flow data. These numbers also take
into account current conditions of the river and soil moisture.
By providing the complete range of probabilistic numbers, the
level of risk associated with long-range planning decisions can
be determined.


Additional supportive data and explanation are available on the
internet at: https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/long_range.php?wfo=hgx
(internet address is all lower case).


Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued around the third
Thursday of every month.


$$