402
FXUS64 KHGX 161705
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1205 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 312 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025

Warm air advection returns to the area, and thus temperatures are
expected to be a few degrees warmer than yesterday`s highs. Inland
areas will top out in the low to mid 80s while the coast will
experience highs in the mid to upper 70s. In addition to the WAA,
an uptick in dew point values will create more muggy conditions
for today.

Cloud cover returns overnight tonight, locking in that surface
level warmth and humidity. With limited radiational cooling,
lows will dip into the 60s inland to near 70 degrees along the
coast.

Thursday will begin a transition in the synoptic pattern as an
upper-level ridge axis moves overhead. Continued warm temperatures
are expected with partly to mostly cloudy skies. Highs for
Thursday will be in the 80s across much of the area. Locations
along the coast will be in the upper 70s to near 80 degrees. Cloud
cover Thursday night will act as a blanket over SE Texas, locking
in warmer temperatures during the overnight hours. Expect lows
for Thursday night to be in the upper 60s to low 70s with a muggy
feel.

Adams

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 312 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025

Warm and muggy weather continues on Friday thanks to southerly
flow at the surface bringing increased moisture and southwesterly
flow aloft. High temperatures on Friday will be in the upper 80s
to low 90s for much of the region with heat indicies rising into
the low to mid 90s. Afternoon high temperatures will be slightly
lower over the weekend into next week (generally around 3-5
degrees cooler) thanks to increased cloud cover, precipitation,
and possibly a weak frontal passage, but more on that in a minute.
Overnight low temperatures Friday night and Saturday night will
be in to low to mid 70s, and then down into the mid 60s to low 70s
beginning Sunday night.

A broad upper-level trough will be digging through the Four
Corners region on Friday, spawning a surface low in the Southern
Plains on Saturday with multiple, weak shortwave trough passing
over Texas. Some isolated showers are possible Saturday afternoon
due to daytime heating and these passing shortwave troughs, but
precipitation chances do not increase earnestly until Saturday
night into Sunday as the main disturbance passes to the north. The
best dynamics for thunderstorms, possibly strong, will be north of
the area, but cannot out rule the possibility at this time due to
uncertainty of the exact timing and location of the passing
disturbance. SPC does highlight areas north of Conroe in a 15%
chance of strong to severe thunderstorms for Sunday. The cold
front associated with the disturbance will either push through the
region Sunday night into Monday, or more likely stall before
getting off the coast. This stalled, weak boundary may lead to
continued chance of showers and storms along the coast through at
least Tuesday.

Fowler

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025

Southeasterly winds with gusts around 20 kt will prevail through
the afternoon hours. MVFR ceilings expected to build in over
northern sites (CXO and northward) after or around 08Z. Some sites
will likely intermittently fluctuate between high-end MVFR and
low-end VFR ceilings through Thursday morning. Ceilings return
back to VFR after the mid-morning hours as southerly winds
strengthen due to a 30-35 kt LLJ overhead. Expecting sustained
winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt going into Thursday
afternoon.

Batiste

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 312 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025

Onshore flow will persist through the start of next week. Light
winds are expected to continue today, but beginning Thursday it
will become moderate at times between 15-20kt with occasional
higher gusts. Low seas will also continue today, but the long
fetch of moderate southerly flow will lead to gradually
increasing seas of 4-6ft by Friday, then to 5-9ft over the
weekend. There will be increasing chances of showers and storms as
early as Saturday with greater chances Sunday into Monday as a
disturbance moves through the region.

Fowler

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  85  64  88  68 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  83  67  86  71 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  78  71  80  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Adams
LONG TERM....Fowler
AVIATION...Batiste
MARINE...Fowler