777
FXUS64 KHGX 300935
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
435 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 223 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024

If you got tired of the hot temperatures earlier this month and had
a "wake me up when September ends" moment, then you`ll be less than
thrilled to see the same summer-like temperatures for the last day
of the month as third summer is in full swing. With an upper level
low currently over the Ohio River Valley weakening and drifting
northeastward, the associated trough axis will do the same. This
will allow for low level moisture to gradually increase early this
week (PW values up to 1.1-1.3" by late Tuesday)...but not enough to
generate any inland rainfall. On top of that, 850mb temperatures
will be at or around the 90th percentile through the short term
period leading to above normal temperatures. Expect high
temperatures today in the low to mid 90s, and add about a degree or
so on top of that for Tuesday. Some locations along and west of the
Brazos River could see high temperatures in the upper 90s on
Tuesday. With the increased low level moisture in place, we`re
looking at heat index values near the 100F mark on Tuesday. If
you`re confused on why it`s still hot even though we`re more than a
week into fall, then I`d like to formally welcome you to Houston
where seasons are just a suggestion!

There will be a similar warming trend in the overnight temperatures
as we add on about 1-3F each night and ending up with lows mainly
in the low to mid 70s on Tuesday night. Speaking of Tuesday night,
that is when rain chances return to the forecast...but not for
inland areas. As a shortwave trails offshore, it will eventually run
into an area of greater moisture availability which will be enough
to generate some rain showers for Nemo and his pals. That shortwave
won`t do much for inland areas other than bring a slight increase in
clouds...how exciting! While we`re on the topic of clouds, another
consequence of the increasing low level moisture is the potential
for patchy fog. The best chances for decreased visibilities will be
south of I-10 and west of I-45, but these impacts could extend to
our usual trouble spots in and around the Piney Woods as well.

If you made it this far, you`ve officially made it to my "passing
time on a mid-shift rambling" section. In today`s edition, we`re
taking a look into October heat! After seeing the forecast, you
might be thinking to yourself "how often do we see the 90s in
October"? Well...for the City of Houston, the last time that we`ve
had an October WITHOUT 90+F temperatures was 2001. On the flip side
of that, October is the month where we usually get our first real
cold front. For the City of Houston, there has been at least one
night at or below 51F since 1964. I`m liking those odds! All of
that to say, even though it`ll feel like summer yet again to kick
off the month of October...there`s hope on the horizon that at some
point during the month that we`ll get some real sweater weather down
here. After all, October has been a rather exciting month for
Houston in recent years... ;)

Batiste

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 223 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024

Disturbances/weaknesses aloft toward the end of the week should allow
for increasing shower and thunderstorm coverage across parts of the
area with the better concentration looking to set up closer to the
coast and especially offshore. By the end of the weekend, mid/upper
level ridging looks to build back into our area from the west resulting
in a drier/warming trend. No significant change in temperatures is anticipated
at this time, with lows generally in the low to mid 60s inland and in
the low to mid 70s near the coast, and with highs generally in an upper
80s to lower 90s range inland and around the mid 80s along the coast.

We will continue to monitor the latest Tropical Weather Outlook from
the National Hurricane Center concerning possible Gulf of Mexico development.
At this time, it is looking like whatever does develop will stay well
east of our area.  42

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 435 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024

VFR conditions expected throughout the TAF period, but there is
potential for intermittent decreased visibilities due to patchy
fog at the usual trouble spots (CXO, LBX, SGR) through 13-14Z.
Light and variable winds will persist throughout the day for
northern sites, but sites IAH and southward will see winds become
southeasterly around 7-10 knots behind the sea breeze this
afternoon. Winds will trend back towards light and variable after
sunset, and there is potential for another round of patchy fog
tonight/early Tuesday morning for the usual trouble spots.

Batiste

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 223 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024

Mainly light and variable winds and low seas can be expected through
Tuesday. A few showers and storms will be possible across the offshore
waters beginning on Tuesday night as moisture levels begin to rise on
strengthening east to northeast winds. Rain coverage is expected to
increase through the remainder of the week as a system begins to organize
in the Gulf of Mexico. Caution flags might be needed for strengthening
winds and building seas.  42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  95  67  96  67 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  95  71  96  73 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  88  76  89  76 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Batiste
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...Batiste
MARINE...42