Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
087 FXUS64 KHGX 131141 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 641 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1238 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025 - We`ll need to keep an eye on fire weather conditions into midweek. ` - Rain chances, albeit on the lower end, return to the forecast Friday into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1238 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025 Mid-upper ridging will continue to dominate into midweek...keeping rain chances close to zero inland (maybe a speck or two possible well offshore). This ridge will gradually be undercut by a westward moving inverted trof tracking under it across the southwestern Gulf heading into Mexico toward midweek. Ridge will then weaken and move to the east as a broad western trof gives it a nudge as it moves across the Rockies and into the Plains. This should eventually provide a less hostile environment for some isolated shower development across the region we head into Friday being able to tap into some of the returning Gulf moisture. Specifics in regards to when this mid-upper trof axis passes, or how deep it becomes, this weekend is still murky between individual models. There should be a surface frontal boundary in the neighborhood Sunday-ish. And some guidance is depicting a decent shot of storms passing through (I see you UKMET/ECMWF), but will maintain the blended solution at this time until consistency/confidence comes into better shape. 47 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 637 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025 All sites at VFR this morning. VFR prevailing through the period. Winds will be light out of the SE through most of the TAF cycle. && .MARINE... Issued at 1238 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025 Light to moderate southeast wind should generally prevail for most of the week (except Tue and Wed when a very diffuse frontal boundary sags into the waters and brings some northeast and east winds). Seas should be 3 feet or less. Some guidance is pointing to a possible frontal passage Sunday(ish), but overall confidence is on the lower end at this time. 47 && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1238 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025 With SE winds today, RH`s should be a touch higher than previous days - generally bottoming out 35-40% inland & 50% coast. Tuesday and Wednesday we`ll see slightly drier air move into the area from the northeast. With continued warm temperatures, RH`s will drop into the 27-37% range. Wind speeds will still be below Red Flag Warning criteria, but considering the dry fuels in place...please exercise caution when working with open flames/equipment that can cause sparks, especially in dry spots. The Texas A&M Forest Service Fire Danger index is in the moderate-very high territory. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 91 64 92 61 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 90 66 91 65 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 86 75 87 72 / 10 0 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...47 AVIATION...Adams MARINE...47