794
FXUS64 KHGX 162349
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
649 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

Forecast for this afternoon remains on track, as many of you can
feel right now with the Texas summer heat. Upper 80s/90s highs with
heat indices breaking the triple digits are still on the tap for
this afternoon, threatening to break daily high temperature records
and several locations. Looking past the heat nowcast, we`ll also be
monitoring the position of a cold front, dry line and sfc trough
currently over central Texas. The consensus of CAM guidance keeps
these boundaries closer to the Dallas/Fort Worth area, with
convection firing off along the line and tracking east/east
northeast. Guidance suggest that this activity could clip our
northeastern counties this evening (7PM-12AM window) as activity
broadly starts to fizzle out. SPC respectively has the northern
fringes of our CWA under a Marginal (level 1/5) Risk for severe
weather this evening. Overall the severe weather threat looks
incredibly slim, especially given how late in the evening it is,
though non-zero and at least worth a mention. If we get a "Little
supercell that could" then we`d have to watch for damaging winds
and hail, though again this threat is very slim and unlikely to
manifest.

Ridging across the Gulf of America amplifies with mid level heights
progged to rise to 587-590 dam. NAEFS mean 500mb heights and 850mb
temperatures are progged to still be over the 90th climatological
percentile, potent enough to keep these abnormally hot conditions in
place throughout the day. Short range guidance is still pessimistic
on the notion of mixing, even after several days of dewpoints mixing
into the 60s. More interestingly, 925mb dewpoints in the HREF show
some moisture convergence near Central/East Texas. Greater low level
moisture around this area seems to at least partially mitigate the
effects of mixing, though not completely. Regardless, we`re still
starting down highs in the upper 80s/90s and heat indices in the
upper 90s to triple digits.

The combination of WBGT and heat risk indicate that this level of
heat will primarily impact groups more sensitive to heat, though it
would be wise to practice heat safety regardless if you plan to
spend an extended amount of time outside. In addition, make sure to
look before you lock your car.

03

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 1251 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

Deep mid/upper ridge remains in place over the Gulf into early
next week, keeping the hotter than normal regime in place through
Tuesday. So expect more humid conditions with highs mostly in the
90s until then. However, the flow pattern over Texas will be in
flux by Tuesday thanks to a mid/upper trough over W CONUS ejecting
eastward into central CONUS. The resulting surface low over the
Central Plains should push eastward towards the Ohio River
Valley. But the trailing cold front is expected to push southward
towards the Gulf. Question is, will capping limit convection or
could we have enough lift on Tuesday to foment convection
(showers/thunderstorms)? Another question I have for Tuesday is
how hot could SE Texas temperatures get? A well mixed LL veering
wind profile could enhance WAA, giving Tuesday`s temperatures a
boost. Maybe we could see upper 90s in some areas. The post
frontal air mass appears less humid. At a minimum, that would
equate to cooler nights and less stifling days. But some guidance
suggests would could see a more substantial cool down than what
we have in our official forecast. We shall see if we are so lucky.

Self

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 631 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

Bit of a rinse and repeat forecast:

- Currently VFR inland, MVFR at the coast with CIGs around
  1800-2000ft
- After sunset, MVFR conditions will spread from the coast inland
  with much of the region seeing CIGs around 1800ft by 6z. IFR
  conditions will be possible south of I-10 overnight with CIGs
  down to 800ft possible. Patchy fog will also be possible, but
  main driver of flight conditions will be CIGs.
- VFR conditions return Sunday mid-morning inland, but MVFR
  conditions may persist at GLS through the afternoon.
- Southeasterly winds around 7-10kt will prevail overnight with
  gusts to 20-25kt returning late Saturday morning.

Fowler

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1251 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

Generally light to moderate onshore flow is expected over the next
several days. A steepening pressure gradient is expected to
result in somewhat higher winds on Monday into Tuesday, especially
at night and during the morning hours. Caution flags may be
warranted. Considering the long fetch, we cannot rule out seas
reaching Small Craft criteria over Gulf on Monday and Tuesday.
Winds may shift more north to northeast by Wednesday and Thursday
thanks to a passing frontal boundary.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 255 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025

With multiple days of near record to record breaking heat
possible going into early next week, here`s a look at the daily
high temperature records through Tuesday (May 20th).

May 16th High Temperature Records
---------------------------------
- College Station: 95F (2003)
- Houston/IAH: 94F (2022)
- Houston/Hobby: 94F (2022)
- Palacios: 88F (2010)
- Galveston: 90F (2022)

May 17th High Temperature Records
---------------------------------
- College Station: 96F (1925)
- Houston/IAH: 96F (2018)
- Houston/Hobby: 94F (2018)
- Palacios: 93F (2003)
- Galveston: 90F (2020)

May 18th High Temperature Records
---------------------------------
- College Station: 98F (2022)
- Houston/IAH: 95F (2022)
- Houston/Hobby: 94F (2022)
- Palacios: 89F (2022)
- Galveston: 90F (2022)

May 19th High Temperature Records
---------------------------------
- College Station: 94F (2022)
- Houston/IAH: 95F (2003)
- Houston/Hobby: 94F (2008)
- Palacios: 89F (2024)
- Galveston: 90F (2022)

May 20th High Temperature Records
---------------------------------
- College Station: 96F (2022)
- Houston/IAH: 95F (2020)
- Houston/Hobby: 95F (2008)
- Palacios: 95F (1943)
- Galveston: 91F (2022)

Batiste

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  76  95  75  96 /  20  20  20   0
Houston (IAH)  77  95  78  93 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  77  87  78  85 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through late Saturday night for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 1 AM CDT Saturday for
     GMZ370-375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM....Self
AVIATION...03
MARINE...Self