Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
055 FXUS64 KHGX 052332 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 632 PM CDT Tue Aug 5 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 138 PM CDT Tue Aug 5 2025 - This week will be slightly drier, but a a daily risk remains for coastal morning showers, and afternoon scattered showers and thunderstorms inland along the sea breeze. Most of this activity will remain along and south of the I-10 corridor. - Turning hotter in the next few days with highs in the mid to upper 90s. - There is a moderate risk of strong rip currents along all Gulf- facing beaches most of the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 138 PM CDT Tue Aug 5 2025 Latest visible satellite imagery shows a widespread field of Cu clouds, indicating a less stable atmosphere. This is likely driven by a weak surface trough, increasing convergence along the coast, and a passing upper-level shortwave. As a result, scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms are developing and will slowly continue to move inland, mainly along the sea breeze, in the next few hours. Vorticity is fairly low in our area, but cannot rule out isolated weak funnel clouds developing along the coast and coastal counties. Most of this activity will remain along and south of the I-10 corridor, though a few showers are possible further north. Showers and storms are expected to dissipate by sunset as diurnal heating ends and the shortwave moves out of the region. A strong upper-level ridge remains anchored to our west. This ridge will be the dominant synoptic feature and will gradually expand eastward, bringing an increase in subsidence, resulting in drier and hotter conditions. While drier air entrainment will be a factor, it will not be enough to completely suppress convection. With decent PW values still in place, particularly over our southern counties (south of I-10), the potential remains for morning coastal showers with a few storms, and afternoon thunderstorms developing inland along the seabreeze convergence zone. Temperatures will generally remain in the low to mid-90s, increasing to the upper-90s Wed - Friday. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 625 PM CDT Tue Aug 5 2025 Remnant scattered tstms along the seabreeze should dissipate in the next hour or two with the loss of heating. In the meantime, they`re throwing out some outflows which are kicking up wind gusts in the 10-22kt range in the metro area (variable directions depending on specific site location). Otherwise, remainder of the evening should see VFR conditions and light winds. Like last night, we anticipate some scattered shra/tstm development offshore and near the coast in the late night into mid morning hours. Have left the mention of precip out of the TAFs for locations north of Interstate 10 overnight and on Wed, but we could see a few cells sneak as far north as HOU/SGR area and have included some PROB30s there in the 14-19z timeframe. 47 && .MARINE... Issued at 138 PM CDT Tue Aug 5 2025 Light onshore winds and low seas will prevail throughout the week. Light to occasionally offshore winds are expected late night into early morning due to the land breeze. This will also result in morning showers with isolated thunderstorms. This pattern of showers and isolated storms in the morning with a few cells along the coast in the afternoon can be expected in the next 7 days. A few storms could become strong, producing strong winds and brief heavy downpours. JM && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 75 95 75 97 / 0 10 0 10 Houston (IAH) 77 95 78 96 / 20 30 10 30 Galveston (GLS) 83 91 82 91 / 40 40 20 30 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None.&& $$ DISCUSSION...JM AVIATION...47 MARINE...JM