119
FXUS64 KHGX 052338
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
638 PM CDT Sat Oct 5 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Sat Oct 5 2024

Passing showers will continue mostly over the Gulf waters through
Sunday morning as the now Tropical Storm Milton, located over the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico, slowly moves north-northeastward. For
tonight, clear to partly cloudy skies are expected with lows mainly
in the upper 60s to low 70s inland and the mid to upper 70s along
the coasts. Winds will be light and variable overnight, but the NE
flow is expected to strengthen again to around 06-12 mph during the
day Sunday. Sunnier skies and warmer conditions are on tap for
Sunday with highs in the low to mid 90s inland and in the upper 80s
along the immediate coasts. As Milton continues on its relaxed pace
towards the Yucatan Peninsula later on Sunday, drier air will push
into Southeast Texas and help keep apparent temperatures (what it
will feel like) similar to the highs. Tranquil conditions expected
Sunday night with more locations seeing lows in the upper 60s. The
coasts will remain in the mid 70s.

24

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Sat Oct 5 2024

Ridging over the Four Corners/Western CONUS will bring another day
of clear skies and warm weather to SE Texas. Highs will be in the
upper 80s to mid 90s across the region, with dewpoints in the 60s to
70s during the afternoon. Thankfully this will be our last day of
humid, summer-like conditions, as a backdoor cold front is expected
to push across SE Texas some time late Monday night through Tuesday
Morning. Low PWs at or under 1" and modest stability should result
in a dry frontal passage with near-zero rain chances. Northeasterly
flow brought by this cold front should bring highs down slightly,
though they`ll still be warm, ranging from the 80s to lower 90s
through the end of the work week. However, dry air from the cold
front will put dewpoints in the 40s/50s, ushering in cooler lows in
the 50s/60s. This will be our first taste of proper "fall-like
Weather" across SE Texas, with guidance suggesting that these
conditions will persist through the end of the work week at least.
Onshore winds are progged to slowly return Friday/this weekend as
surface high pressure settles in over the Ohio Valley/Mid Atlantic
coast.

03

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 638 PM CDT Sat Oct 5 2024

Staying VFR this evening and overnight with decreasing clouds and inland
winds become mostly light and variable (winds at GLS staying at around
5-10 knots). Cannot totally rule out some patchy fog development late
tonight, but not confident enough to include in any TAF. VFR tomorrow
with gradual clearing from N to S as the day progresses. Mainly N to
NE winds increasing to around 10 knots. Looking at mostly clear to clear
skies tomorrow evening through Tuesday morning with light winds. 42

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 300 PM CDT Sat Oct 5 2024

A coastal trough will bring scattered storms and east-northeasterly
winds around 10 to 20 knots through early next week. Caution flags
are currently in effect and Small Craft Advisories may be needed by
Monday morning as winds creep above 20 knots offshore and seas
approach 4 to 6 feet. Gulf facing beaches may see increased tide
levels, resulting in minor coastal runup, and a high risk of rip
currents up through Monday night. A cold front should push off the
coast on Tuesday, keeping light to moderate northeasterly flow in
place over the next several days.

03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  70  94  67  94 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  73  93  71  94 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  77  88  77  88 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for TXZ436>439.

     Beach Hazards Statement through late Sunday night for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through late Sunday night
     for GMZ350-355-370-375.

&&

$$MARINE...03