Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
643 FXUS64 KHGX 061056 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 556 AM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1201 AM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025 - Rain/storm chances will be lower, but not quite zero today, with the best potential occurring closer to the seabreeze front in the afternoon. - Rain and storm potential bounces back Monday and Tuesday with the arrival of a disturbance from the east. - Look for an eventual transition to a hotter and drier summer pattern later in the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1201 AM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025 Well, a description of what I did with the forecast will not take very long - with broad agreement amongst the guidance and no unusual weather considerations through the week, my focus was mostly on taking care of NBM`s issues and quirks, while leaving its qualitative forecast and trends intact. Perhaps the most effort was put into short term rain chances, mainly to generalize the over-deterministic PoPs showing isolated convection in the NBM. Instead, I had more of a broad-brush slight chance region largely holding tight to the seabreeze boundary in the afternoon. Temperatures I replaced NBM deterministic with the NBM median to better mitigate the Piney Woods torchy blob, then worked in other consensus guidance to further mitigate that and also alleviate land/sea interface issues. And, of course, I made a wholesale replacement of NBM dewpoints, particularly for its continuously problematic afternoon values. Okay, with that out of the way, let`s talk actual meteorology! The key thing here is that weather will be rather seasonable through the next week, which means the upper pattern is generally dominated by the subtropical ridge, modulated by nuances in just how that ridge presents day to day. The little vort max and 850/700 mb low that helped enhance rain mostly in the western third to half of the area Saturday will be...not quite gone...but not quite meaningful for our area anymore either. So while Sunday shouldn`t be dry, I`d expect any isolated pop-ups in the afternoon to be more tightly tied to the seabreeze boundary, rather than to that feature out west. Now, that feature has bedeviled numerical guidance, but WV imagery seems to indicate that it is finally weakening/splitting, so I`m more confident in letting it work itself out of the picture for our area specifically. Now, while that sounds like we will finally get an opportunity for ridging to assert more control, just wait! We`ve got an upper trough over the Northeast Gulf right now that will be making its way over to our corner of the Gulf by Monday, this will keep us in a relative weakness in the subtropical ridge for at least a couple more days, and PoPs will actually bounce back up for those days. Eventually, we should see that trough fill and the ridge assert itself, but we`ll keep dwindling rain chances in the picture through most all of the forecast period, as it`s not entirely clear how long it will take for this process to occur. But...once it does, temps should go up and rain chances should end, and the forecast broadly reflects that trend...even if I don`t quite commit fully to it on the PoP side just yet. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 529 AM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025 Brief, isolated MVFR cigs/patchy fog will be possible early today, but should start to clear with sunrise. Southerly winds prevail during the day with low rain chances during the afternoon. Light and variable winds can be expected again overnight with VFR conditions dominating across the region. 03 && .MARINE... Issued at 1201 AM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025 Light to occasionally moderate onshore winds and relatively low seas will prevail over the next week. However, winds will occasionally be gusty, with gusts of 15 to 20 knots possible at times. The daily risk of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue through the forecast period. The next best chance of isolated to scattered showers and storms will be Monday and Tuesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 91 73 91 74 / 20 10 20 10 Houston (IAH) 93 76 92 75 / 20 10 40 10 Galveston (GLS) 90 82 90 82 / 10 10 30 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Luchs AVIATION...03 MARINE...Adams