616
FXUS64 KHGX 071138
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
638 AM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 339 AM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

Well, it`s been showing up in this discussion and in social media
posts for days and days, and we`re finally here - the much
advertised hot weekend! This visit of peak summer heat will be
fairly short-lived though, as more typical temperatures will
return along with the return of more significant rain and storm
potential starting on Monday. Some of the key points for tonight`s
forecast:
- Temperatures this weekend will be closer to records than they
  will be to average, and more like what you`d see in the hottest
  days of summer rather than early June. Expected heat index
  values today are in the 101-105 range away from the Gulf. This
  is a little shy of what typically prompts a heat advisory, but
  still hot enough that heat stress should be a factor to consider
  in planning your Saturday activities. Tomorrow, forecast heat
  indices are higher, in the 103-110 range, and a heat advisory
  may be needed as we refine our thoughts.
- Even without an advisory, there are three specific groups who
  should strongly consider the dangerous impacts of heat this
  weekend. Those are people who are more sensitive to heat, people
  who will be working/playing strenuously in the full sun, and
  those without access to air conditioning. Wet bulb globe
  temperatures are forecast in the high risk range, and HeatRisk
  is in the moderate to major impact range, highlighting a higher
  risk to these groups of people.
- At the least, potential for rain and thunderstorms goes up
  beginning Monday. While it puts an end to the high-end heat, we
  could also see an environment more supportive of severe storms
  and/or excessive rains. Please keep up with forecasts for the
  first half of next week as we continue to evaluate the potential
  for any stronger storms.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday Night)
Issued at 339 AM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

Water vapor imagery tonight paints a pretty clear picture for the
Texas Gulf coast - we are underneath the influence of ridging
aloft, and it is still a fairly humid environment. There is some
cirrus blown off of convection over Oklahoma and the Red River
Valley making its way across the area as a bit of flavor, but the
strength of the ridge will keep those storms far from Southeast
Texas and not a topic of concern for us. Like the past day or two,
the moisture-laden atmosphere may see an extremely brief shower
or two pop up from mid-morning to early afternoon, but will only
impact small areas for very brief amounts of time with only a
trace of rainfall. In fact, I don`t even have PoPs high enough to
trigger the wording for a slight chance of measurable rainfall.
The odds of managing to squeeze out 0.01 inches of rain at any
given point aren`t zero...but they`re not that much more than
zero, either.

Instead, we`ll be gauging just how hot is hot going to be this
afternoon. Aggravating the heat threat will be temperatures rising
into the middle 90s for most of inland Southeast Texas. This gets
us as close or closer to records than to average for early June,
and is more typical of conditions you`d see in the hottest days of
the summer in July and August. In addition to that, we`ll have
a mostly sunny sky and solar angle is not quite, but just a couple
weeks off of the most direct we`ll see. The unusualness of these
temperatures, both through the day but also at night is reflected
pretty directly in the experimental HeatRisk product. Today,
HeatRisk is a mix of moderate to major impact, and even tips
slightly over to more major impact tomorrow. This should be
particularly important to folks who are particularly sensitive to
heat and/or do not have regular access to air conditioning -
there does not look to be much opportunity from the atmosphere
itself to get relief. Folks in these groups should look to find
relief where they can, and if you know someone in these groups,
please check in on them and help them as best you are able.

It`s not all terrible news, and indeed, there are just enough
mitigating factors to keep us from issuing a heat advisory for
today. While humid, we are forecast enough drier air to mix down
during through the day that dewpoints look to fall to around or
just under 70 degrees in the afternoon. This looks to be enough to
keep the forecast heat index values more in the 101-105 range, and
when paired with what is typically a modestly drier SSW wind
around 10 mph, which should keep things from getting too out of
hand for folks outdoors not exerting themselves in shady spots.
That said...despite the humidity forecast and winds, the wet bulb
globe temperature forecast (which *does* consider these factors)
still rises into the high risk range - so if you are planning to
work hard (or play hard!) you`ll want to be more cautious than
those just hanging out outdoors. Consider postponing work that
can be postponed, or moving your activity to the morning or
evening hours when heat and solar intensity will be lower. At the
very least, plan to take frequent breaks for rest and hydration.

After another very warm night (see that note above on HeatRisk and
lack of opportunity for relief), Sunday looks to be as hot or
hotter than today. Temperatures look to rise a little bit higher
in the middle to upper 90s, and nudge even closer to record
values. Depending on how dewpoints trend through the day, forecast
heat index values are currently in the 103-110 range inland. This
is a fairly wide range, and we`ll need to refine those a little
more today/tonight before making a call on whether a heat advisory
will be needed for Sunday. Even if there is no advisory, it will
be about as close to an advisory-level day as you can get without
an advisory. All of those same vulnerable groups discussed above
will need to keep heat at the front of mind. Those who may not be
in those groups will still want to consider the threat of heat on
their activities, and they will almost certainly know someone in
those vulnerable groups - keep them in mind and lend a hand!

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 1157 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Mid-upper ridging that brought us the hot conditions will
gradually be suppressed to the s/sw as a larger trof dips further
swd into the Midwest/Great Lakes/ MS Valley area early next week.
Shower and tstm chances will gradually increase heading into the
early and midweek time period due to the combination of
prevailing moist onshore flow, less subsidence, daytime heating,
and the ability for some intermittent upper disturbances and/or
outflows from storms to our n/nw to make their way into the area.
And with the increased cloud cover and rain chances should lead to
temps lowering a bit closer to seasonable norms.

During the mid and late work week, we should see another mid level
trof take shape across West Texas and slowly track ene across the
Southern Plains which should allow chances for daily showers/tstms
to continue. 47

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 638 AM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

Key points for this TAF cycle will be exiting of any lingering
haze from high Saharan dust; S to SW winds, rising to around 10
knots with gusts to around 20 knots in the afternoon; and MVFR
this morning improving to VFR for most of the day, then MVFR CIGs
returning late tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1157 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

Fairly typical summer time pattern is anticipated for the next
several days with a prevailing onshore flow. Speeds should
typically be highest (14-17kt) at night in the Gulf and during the
afternoon/evening in the bays. Seas will mostly be in the 3-5ft
range. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  94  76  96  76 /  10  10   0  10
Houston (IAH)  95  78  97  79 /   0  10   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  88  82  89  82 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Luchs
LONG TERM....Adams
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...Adams