093
FXUS64 KHGX 101015
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
415 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday Night)
Issued at 339 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025

Widespread showers slowly begin to tapper off from northwest to
southeast this morning as the coastal trough pushes off to the east.
By in-large the heavy rainfall threat is over, with steady
stratiform rain expected over the next several hours. Temperatures
early this morning are largely in the mid/upper 30s, though a few
areas north of Huntsville could briefly touch freezing as we reach
peak nocturnal cooling prior to sunrise. Precipitation should
largely be done over these locations by this time, though there
still exists a very narrow window for some wintry precipitation to
occur, with some forecast soundings showing a sub-freezing
isothermal layer from 950mb-850mb. Still, short-range models favor
keeping temperatures and dewpoints above freezing across nearly all
of SE Texas, with the freezing level located above 900ft. Even if
some wintry mix does occur, ground temperatures should be above
freezing, warm enough to prevent any kind of snow/sleet/ice
accumulation.

Northwesterly winds slowly diminish behind the aforementioned
coastal trough, enough to allow the Wind Advisory across the barrier
islands to expire at 6 AM as planned. However, breezy winds and
cloudy skies should continue throughout the day, keeping conditions
cool. Highs will be in the upper 30s/mid 40s, with max apparent
temperatures (wind chill) remaining in the 30s. Winds diminish and
skies clear out tonight/early Saturday as surface high pressure
builds in from the west. Light winds and cooled ground temperatures
may allow for patchy fog to develop over our northern counties. Lows
for Saturday morning are currently forecasted to reach the lower
20s/30s.

Surface high pressure moves overhead and pushes off to the east on
Saturday, allowing southerly flow to return. WAA and clear skies
should bring daytime highs in the upper 40s/mid 50s. Rising moisture
should put lows for Sunday morning in the 30s/lower 40s.

03

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 339 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025

A weak surface cold front will push into the area on Sunday, with
only a limited chance of associated rainfall concentrated along
and south of the I-10 corridor. While winds sill shift back to the
north in its wake, only a modest cooldown is expected to
materialize as advection remains fairly weak. Highs on Sunday
could perhaps break above the 60 mark at a few locations, with
overnight lows mostly in the 30s.

Cool and otherwise generally benign conditions should prevail for
several days thereafter. The overall synoptic pattern will not be
particularly active, as global models continue to show a
stagnant/retrograding upper low well to our west through mid-week
(in fact, this feature is placed even further west than in
previous days` packages). Furthermore, development of a coastal
trough/low near the TX/Mexico border is less pronounced in
tonight`s suite of global model runs, and as such PoP values have
been trimmed back offshore even further. Still, a sight chance of
rain will continue to linger about 20-60 miles from the coast
through mid-week.

Cool temperatures, with highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s to
lower 40s, will prevail through Thursday.

Cady

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1110 PM CST Thu Jan 9 2025

IFR remains the rule across the area under a raw, windy, rainy
sky. Isolated exceptions occur briefly, but not enough to be worth
chasing, or really even adding TEMPOs. Rain should wind down from
northwest to southeast early in the morning, with any lingering
showers wrapping up by mid-morning at the latest. However, CIGs
are expected to remain in the IFR categories until this afternoon,
before they also gradually join the improvement train...only the
MVFR. While clouds should eventually scatter enough to end CIGs,
it`s late enough that it can only be mentioned in the extended
portion for IAH.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 339 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025

Gale Conditions will continue to diminish over the next 1-2 hours,
and the Gale Warning will be replaced with a Small Craft Advisory
beginning at 6 AM CST. Gusty winds will nonetheless persist
throughout the day today, with sustained winds reaching as high as
25 knots at times with occasional gusts in excess of 30 knots.
This will be accompanied by seas of up to 8 feet. Winds will shift
to the south and relax on Saturday, before the passage of a cold
front will bring offshore winds and the chance of another Small
Craft Advisory on Sunday night.

Cady

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  41  26  53  32 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  44  31  52  36 /  10   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  45  34  51  45 /  30   0   0  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Wind Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST tonight for GMZ330-350.

     Gale Warning until 6 AM CST early this morning for GMZ335-355-
     370-375.

     Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST tonight for GMZ335-355-
     370-375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM....Cady
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...Cady