690
FXUS64 KHGX 012124
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
324 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hazardous marine conditions are anticipated into Tuesday as a
  coastal low crosses the northwestern Gulf, also fueling today`s
  rainy weather.

- Fair weather but with a chill in the air is anticipated Tuesday
  and early Wednesday. A light freeze is likely well north of the
  Houston metro for the next couple of nights, while much of the
  rest of the area sees lows in the 30s to lower 40s.

- Rain chances return Wednesday night and Thursday due to another
  coastal low and incoming cold front. Much like today, potential
  for excessive rain causing flooding issues is low, but not quite
  zero - less than 5 percent.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 323 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

A dreary, soggy day for much of Southeast Texas is beginning to
gradually start an improvement this afternoon...though there is
very much a strong emphasis on the "gradually" part here.
Widespread rains have largely exited the area, instead leaving
isolated (west of I-45) to scattered (east of I-45) showers about
the area. While rain is starting to draw to a close, the entirety
of the area remains socked underneath a curtain of low stratus
clouds, keeping temperatures in the 40s to around 50 at Galveston.
There is also still some patchy fog about, mainly in the
southeastern quarter of our area, but we`ve mostly transitioned to
being largely low clouds over fog.

Those rain chances will continue to wind down through the evening,
and the overcast sky should begin to break several hours behind
it, more in the overnight timeframe. Precisely how quickly this
happens is likely to have very big impacts on how chilly we get
tonight. For Houston`s urban core and generally coastward of I-10,
clouds will hang on the longest, and so while we`re still looking
at a chilly night given we`re still only in the 40s to around 50,
forecast lows here stay up in the upper 30s to around 40 degrees.

The farther north you go, the better chance you have at getting
some clearer sky to help shed what degrees we do have. A light
freeze is all but certain across large swaths of Houston County,
our northernmost county in the area on our way to low temps just
below 30 degrees. But even here, the number of hours below
freezing isn`t terribly long - looking to be just in the 2-4 hour
range. NBM probability of freezing temps is - perhaps
unsurprisingly - nearly 100 percent for Crockett and 90 percent or
higher for most all of Houston County. This does drop off pretty
rapidly as you head south, though. Caldwell`s probability is 18
percent, Livingston`s is 27 percent. Huntsville is only 9 percent!
Now, again this is NBM probability and not a true probability, but
it should get us something in the ballpark, and pretty solidly
shows the trend that sub-freezing temps look very likely to be
locked up in the north.

Tuesday through Wednesday morning will give us a short respite
from the unsettled weather and some more sun, albeit not enough
to warm us up *all* that much. Tuesday should get up into the 50s
for most all of the area, and Wednesday looks to sneak back mostly
into the 60s, and not that far short of seasonal averages.
Tuesday night does look chilly with enough open sky and lighter
winds. But those winds will also be turning back onshore, so I
don`t anticipate Tuesday night being any colder than tonight,
likely even a touch warmer. That near 100 percent NBM probability
of freezing temps at Crockett tonight? Already down to 78 percent
for Tuesday night.

Now, yes, once onshore flow is re-established, we`re going to
begin another rapid run through the cycle of unsettled weather
this week. For Wednesday night and Thursday another shortwave
trough ripples through the upper atmosphere, while another weak
coastal low spins up and traverses the NW Gulf. All in all, it
looks very much like a repeat of what we`re seeing today down to
the rough track of the low and level of precipitable water we
reach. So another round of numerous to widespread showers with a
few storms, concentrated more to the coast and Gulf than inland.
Heavy rain/flooding potential will be greater than zero, but
generally low, less than 5 percent.

The chance for rain looks to linger into Friday, but this could be
nice as it sets us up for some fair weather for the weekend.
Perhaps one key difference from the current situation is that the
post-frontal airmass on this late week system is more Pacific in
origin, so while we`ll cool back down again after warming up
through Wednesday, we shouldn`t be any colder than tonight/Tuesday
night, and quite likely a little bit warmer, with low temps
bottoming out more in the upper 30s and 40s, while the chilliest
afternoon on Friday looks to be in the 50s across the area.


&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 529 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

Poor flying conditions are expected today as rainfall develops
across the region. Heavy downpours are a possibility at times from
the metro area to the coast which could cause some reduced
visibility. Low end MVFR ceilings early this morning will likely
drop into IFR territory by mid morning with increasing rain
coverage. Cannot rule out LIFR at times near pockets of heavier
downpours (esp Hobby, Angleton, Galveston). Rain tapers off
early-mid evening followed by lifting ceilings from NW to SE.
Would anticipate most terminals be back to VFR by 9z or so. Mclr
skies anticipated Tue. 47

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 323 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

Marine conditions are currently in a relative state of
improvement on the coastal waters, though the emphasis here is
very much on the word relative. Winds and seas are still high
enough that small craft need to exercise caution on the nearshore
Gulf waters, and a small craft advisory remains in effect on the
offshore Gulf waters. Widespread rain and isolated thunderstorms
are also still occurring, mainly over the upper coastal waters -
Galveston Bay and adjacent portions of the Gulf out 60 nm and
beyond into the open Gulf.

This evening, look for winds to become more northerly and
increase again to 20 to 25 knots with gusts to 30 knots as the
coastal low moves off to the east. The Small Craft Advisory on the
offshore waters expands back to include all coastal waters through
tonight and into early Tuesday morning before winds and seas
begin to subside. Advisory-level conditions are expected to
continue on the Gulf waters through the morning while winds remain
above 20 knots, and on the offshore 20-60 nm Gulf waters into the
early afternoon before seas there are finally expected to fall
below 7 feet.

Despite a short respite Tuesday through Wednesday morning, the
unsettled weather pattern will mean another bout with rain,
storms, and potentially even periods of sea fog later in the week
as we deal with another coastal low and frontal passage.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  34  54  38  61 /  40   0   0  20
Houston (IAH)  38  56  41  65 /  70   0   0  20
Galveston (GLS)  45  59  52  70 /  70   0   0  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Tuesday
     for GMZ330-335.

     Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 6 PM CST this evening
     for GMZ350-355.

     Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to noon CST Tuesday
     for GMZ350-355.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CST Tuesday for GMZ370-375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Luchs
AVIATION...47
MARINE...Luchs