615
FXUS64 KHGX 112334
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
634 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 132 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

- Isolated to scattered showers and storms this afternoon should
  gradually taper off from south to north near sunset.

- Increasing rain and storm chances are expected this weekend with
  the best chances in the afternoon. A few strong storms will be
  possible.

- The pattern of daily showers and storms is expected to persist
  into early next week before a gradual decrease in rain chances
  and a potential increase in heat later in the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 132 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Showers and storms are continuing to develop across portions of
SOutheast Texas this afternoon. This activity is fueled by a
combination of increased moisture, ongoing moisture convergence at
the surface, favorable low to mid-lapse rates (~ 7 degC/km) and
passing weak shortwaves at mid-upper levels. Latest soundings and
observations show PWs at or above 2.0 inches around these storms,
suggesting ample moisture streaming in from the Gulf. Given the
amount of dry air aloft, evaporational cooling becomes more
efficient, producing gusty winds with the strongest storms this
afternoon. This activity will continue from south to north this
afternoon, ending near sunset. A muggy and warm night is anticipated
with a few lingering showers, especially over the coastal waters.

Saturday and Sunday bring increasing rain and storm chances across
most of the region. Southeast TX will remain positioned between two
ridges aloft, and some trough weakness over the area. Forcing aloft
increases a bit with an approaching trough from the west.
Furthermore, persistent southerly surface winds will continue to
increase moisture advection across the region with high PWs. With
these ingredients in place, scattered to widespread showers and
thunderstorms cannot be ruled out during the day. Uncertainty in
coverage, on the other hand, is still moderate to high. Forecast
soundings continue to suggest a layer of drier air still filtering
in from the west. This could lead to lower precipitation chances
and/or less widespread coverage. As of now, have continued with 50
to 70% chance of PoPs for both Saturday and Sunday, with the
greatest occurring in the afternoon due to peak daytime heating.

Next week will see a transition in the weather pattern with drier
and hotter conditions. The ridge to our east will strengthen as
the surface high shifts westward into our region. This pattern
will bring a more dominant subsiding airmass. However, we are not
expecting a completely dry forecast. A persistent onshore flow
from the Gulf will continue to advect ample moisture. This surge
in moisture combined with diurnal heating will support scattered
showers and thunderstorms at least through Tuesday. Isolated heavy
downpours and gusty winds are possible, mainly in the afternoons.

By mid-week, increased subsidence and compressed air will result in
hot conditions and less convective development. Ensemble tables
mean, particularly from the NAEFS and GEFS models, continues to
suggest temperatures near the 90th percentile of climatology for
Wednesday and Thursday. This is translated to highs in the mid to
upper 90s. Heat indices near the advisory levels will be possible.

JM

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 626 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Isolated showers will remain possible through sunset. VFR
conditions will prevail through midnight across the area, but some
MVFR conditions with CIGs down to around 1500ft may begin to move
into CLL and UTS late tonight into early Saturday morning. Patchy
fog will also be possible across the area near sunrise. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms will return Saturday afternoon following
a similar pattern to the past several days of starting near the
coast in the late morning then spreading inland through the
afternoon. SSW winds continue with speeds around 4-6kts overnight
increasing to around 8-12kt during the daytime hours. &&

.MARINE...
Issued at 132 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Light to moderate south to southeast winds with gusts from 15 to 20
knots will persist across the Upper TX coast within the next 7-days.
This persistent onshore flow is due to a sfc high pressure anchored
across the eastern/central Gulf. This pattern will continue to bring
more moisture inland, and a daily risk of showers and
thunderstorms. Therefore, expect scattered activity this
afternoon, before ending near sunset. Rain and storm chances
increase throughout the weekend as a disturbance moves over
central/southeast TX. Scattered to widespread activity can be
anticipated both Saturday and Sunday. Gusty winds and building
seas are possible near any thunderstorms. Seas will generally
remain 2 to 4 ft over the next several days, approaching 5 ft
offshore during the weekend. Onshore winds along with isolated to
scattered showers and storms can be expected at least early next
week.

Beach conditions: Use extra caution this weekend as there is an
increased risk of rip currents along all Gulf-facing beaches. Always
follow beach flag systems, swim near a lifeguard and away from
piers and jetties.

JM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  75  92  75  93 /   0  50  10  40
Houston (IAH)  78  91  77  92 /  20  70  10  60
Galveston (GLS)  83  90  82  90 /  30  60  30  50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through Saturday morning for
     GMZ330-350-370-375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...Fowler
MARINE...JM