141
FXUS64 KHGX 011743
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1243 PM CDT Tue Oct 1 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 336 AM CDT Tue Oct 1 2024

Seasonally warm but otherwise mostly benign conditions will prevail
in the immediate term. Surface high pressure continues to dominate
the Central CONUS, promoting an easterly surface wind over SE TX.
Over the course of the next 48 hours, the eastward shift of this
surface high will promote the gradual return of an onshore flow
regime and thereby a return to more summer-like moisture levels by
tomorrow night. Despite the presence of a fairly pronounced midlevel
shortwave just to our east, convective development will be largely
inhibited by a lack of surface instability. Forecast soundings also
indicate the presence of a fairly stout capping inversion through
the afternoon today, solidifying PoP values near zero over land. A
few scattered storms can`t totally be ruled out over the Gulf waters
(20-60 mi offshore), where both instability and moisture
availability are more favorable. Temperatures will reach the mid 90s
across the area this afternoon, approaching but likely not reaching
daily record values. Overnight lows will sit mostly in the upper
60s/low 70s.

A similar outlook is expected for Wednesday, with highs again
reaching the low/mid 90s and lows remaining in the upper 60s/lower
70s. The further eastward shift of surface high pressure will bring
back low-level moisture in earnest, an effect that should be
noticeable by Wednesday evening as surface dew points approach the 70
mark across portions of the area. Isolated rain chances will
continue to linger near the coast. Increasing moisture may also
favor the development of some overnight fog.

Cady

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 336 AM CDT Tue Oct 1 2024

Heading into Thursday, things will be rather uneventful with yet
another day of above normal temperatures with highs in the low to
mid 90s. One of the main stories of the long term period will be
increasing moisture from the south as a trough of low pressure
drifts through the Gulf of Mexico late in the week and going into
the weekend. This will lead to increasing rain chances, especially
for coastal and offshore locations. Rain chances do increase inland
as well as there are indications on PW values in excess of 1.6-2.0"
making its way into Southeast Texas over the weekend. This moisture
will be able to interact with upper level diffluence/divergence
along with PVA from passing shortwaves to generate showers and
thunderstorms. On the positive side, the increasing chances for rain
means that there will be a gradual decreasing trend in temperatures
as highs over the weekend will be relegated to the upper 80s/low
90s. Low temperatures remain rather mild in the upper 60s to mid 70s
range through the weekend.

Speaking of temperatures...at the tail-end of the long term period,
model guidance continues to suggest a cold front to at least
approach Southeast Texas on Monday. The reason that I say "at least
approach" is because the parent surface low will be well far north
of us in the Northern Plains and skirting eastward through the Great
Lakes region, so we`d be catching the tail-end of it. The associated
upper level trough only dips as far south as the Ohio River Valley
as well. However, there is a noticeable downward trend in
temperatures. The probabilities are on our side though! Through the
weekend, the general probability for temperatures below 70F is
around 30%...but that probability increases to 70+% down to the
coast early next week. While it`s still too early to lock in a
FROPA, there are at least some good signs pointing in its
favor...stay tuned!

Batiste

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Tue Oct 1 2024

Starting to see some mid/high clouds across the CWA, but the forecast
will remain mostly VFR through this TAF package. N/NE winds are going
to eventually prevail this afternoon (6-11kts) before decreasing this
evening once again (2-6kts). Patchy fog should develop overnight once
again...mainly at our usual spots (LBX/CXO). 41

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 336 AM CDT Tue Oct 1 2024

Light winds and lows seas will continue through tonight. Going into
Wednesday morning, northeasterly to easterly winds become
established and may increase enough to warrant the occasional
issuance of caution flags in the Gulf waters. This is the result of
a trough extending from the Bay of Campeche into the north central
Gulf midweek into the weekend. Seas will gradually build as well,
especially going into the weekend. Chances for showers and storms
will be on the rise throughout the week with the highest chances
occuring Friday onward.

Batiste

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  95  68  93  65 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  95  72  93  68 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  89  77  85  76 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cady
LONG TERM....Batiste
AVIATION...41
MARINE...Batiste