Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
697 FXUS64 KHGX 302320 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 620 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1239 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 - Today (Monday) is the best chance of showers/storms for this week, then 10-20% chances of rain for rest of the work week. - Temperatures on the rise throughout the week with mid to upper 90s towards the end of the week with heat indices in the triple digits. - Saharan dust prevails throughout the week...current plume lasts through Thursday, then another plume Friday into the weekend. - 4th of July will be hot and mostly dry...no issues anticipated for the evening firework shows. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1239 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 One more decent chance of scattered showers/storms this afternoon and then we`re onto the heat! Moisture availability has been the greatest west of I-45 throughout the morning and into the early afternoon leading to the ongoing scattered convection. The CAMs (especially the HRRR) are still fairly consistent on additional convection developing around the Houston metro area sometime between 1-6pm this afternoon. PW values remain up to 1.9-2.0", so some locally heavy downpours will be possible. This is in spite of both mid to upper level ridging aloft building in (although the main ridge axis remains to our northwest for now) and a layer of Saharan dust remains overhead. On the plus side, these elevated rain chances for today will keep temperatures mainly relegated to the low 90s for high temperatures. As the ridge axis gradually slides eastward throughout the week, we`ll see rain chances drop to ~10-15% for the remainder of the work week...and we`ll see temperatures climb on up! 850 mb temperatures by midweek will be around the 90th percentile and that`ll pair with the persistent layer of Saharan dust. By the end of the work week, high temperatures will be in the mid to upper 90s...and yes this does include the 4th of July. Rain chances will be slim, but non-zero, so the main story heading into the holiday will be heat safety. I`m sure there`s a lot of you with outdoor plans, so keep in mind that you`ll want to take breaks from being out in the heat. When you are outside, dress accordingly and stay hydrated. If you`re including your pets in the festivities, keep in mind that the concrete will likely be too hot for their paws (and they may get spooked from the fireworks as well). Additionally, please LOOK before you LOCK your vehicle. Temperatures around the start of the firework shows will likely still be in the upper 80s to low 90s with heat indices in the 100s, which is hazardous in an enclosed vehicle with no circulation. The current plume of Saharan dust will drift eastward on Thursday, and we`re looking at another plume moving in on Friday and lasting throughout the weekend. Speaking of the weekend, temperatures are expected to reach into the upper 90s. There is a bit of uncertainty on whether the ridge will break down enough to allow a few upper level disturbances to come in and bring back notable chances for rain, but for now leaning towards heat being the main story. Dew points should continue to mix out into the 60s in the afternoon hours, so we`re anticipating reaching the heat advisory threshold at the moment through the forecast period. Batiste && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 617 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Scattered shra/tsra activity will diminish this evening. Patchy fog is possible early tomorrow morning, with the best chance being at SGR and LBX. Winds may start southwesterly tomorrow morning, before becoming south to southeast by the afternoon. Other than the patchy morning fog, VFR conditions are expected to prevail. && .MARINE... Issued at 1239 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Scattered showers/storms will continue to be possible throughout the afternoon hours, especially around Matagorda Bay and the adjacent Gulf waters. Wave heights in the offshore Gulf waters continue on a gradual decreasing trend as swells steadily subside. Wave heights at Buoy 42019 was at 6 ft for most of the morning and is now around 5 ft as of Monday afternoon. Generally light to moderate onshore flow will prevail throughout the forecast period. After today, chances for showers/storms drops to around 10% so any convection that develops will be isolated. Conditions will be hot and mostly dry coming up on the 4th of July. Batiste && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 74 94 75 95 / 10 10 0 10 Houston (IAH) 76 94 77 95 / 10 10 0 10 Galveston (GLS) 81 90 81 90 / 0 10 0 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Batiste AVIATION...Self MARINE...Batiste