Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
816 FXUS64 KHGX 300723 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 223 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday Night) Issued at 223 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 If you got tired of the hot temperatures earlier this month and had a "wake me up when September ends" moment, then you`ll be less than thrilled to see the same summer-like temperatures for the last day of the month as third summer is in full swing. With an upper level low currently over the Ohio River Valley weakening and drifting northeastward, the associated trough axis will do the same. This will allow for low level moisture to gradually increase early this week (PW values up to 1.1-1.3" by late Tuesday)...but not enough to generate any inland rainfall. On top of that, 850mb temperatures will be at or around the 90th percentile through the short term period leading to above normal temperatures. Expect high temperatures today in the low to mid 90s, and add about a degree or so on top of that for Tuesday. Some locations along and west of the Brazos River could see high temperatures in the upper 90s on Tuesday. With the increased low level moisture in place, we`re looking at heat index values near the 100F mark on Tuesday. If you`re confused on why it`s still hot even though we`re more than a week into fall, then I`d like to formally welcome you to Houston where seasons are just a suggestion! There will be a similar warming trend in the overnight temperatures as we add on about 1-3F each night and ending up with lows mainly in the low to mid 70s on Tuesday night. Speaking of Tuesday night, that is when rain chances return to the forecast...but not for inland areas. As a shortwave trails offshore, it will eventually run into an area of greater moisture availability which will be enough to generate some rain showers for Nemo and his pals. That shortwave won`t do much for inland areas other than bring a slight increase in clouds...how exciting! While we`re on the topic of clouds, another consequence of the increasing low level moisture is the potential for patchy fog. The best chances for decreased visibilities will be south of I-10 and west of I-45, but these impacts could extend to our usual trouble spots in and around the Piney Woods as well. If you made it this far, you`ve officially made it to my "passing time on a mid-shift rambling" section. In today`s edition, we`re taking a look into October heat! After seeing the forecast, you might be thinking to yourself "how often do we see the 90s in October"? Well...for the City of Houston, the last time that we`ve had an October WITHOUT 90+F temperatures was 2001. On the flip side of that, October is the month where we usually get our first real cold front. For the City of Houston, there has been at least one night at or below 51F since 1964. I`m liking those odds! All of that to say, even though it`ll feel like summer yet again to kick off the month of October...there`s hope on the horizon that at some point during the month that we`ll get some real sweater weather down here. After all, October has been a rather exciting month for Houston in recent years... ;) Batiste && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 223 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 Disturbances/weaknesses aloft toward the end of the week should allow for increasing shower and thunderstorm coverage across parts of the area with the better concentration looking to set up closer to the coast and especially offshore. By the end of the weekend, mid/upper level ridging looks to build back into our area from the west resulting in a drier/warming trend. No significant change in temperatures is anticipated at this time, with lows generally in the low to mid 60s inland and in the low to mid 70s near the coast, and with highs generally in an upper 80s to lower 90s range inland and around the mid 80s along the coast. We will continue to monitor the latest Tropical Weather Outlook from the National Hurricane Center concerning possible Gulf of Mexico development. At this time, it is looking like whatever does develop will stay well east of our area. 42 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1057 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024 VFR conditions will prevail for much of the area through the period, but there will be some patchy fog developing at LBX and possibly CXO and SGR in the late night to early morning hours. Visibility may be reduce to 1-3 miles at times, with LBX having the highest likelihood of that denser fog. Otherwise, clear skies and light winds through the morning with winds becoming SE through the afternoon at around 6-9kt. Winds become light and variable again by sunset. Fowler && .MARINE... Issued at 223 AM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024 Mainly light and variable winds and low seas can be expected through Tuesday. A few showers and storms will be possible across the offshore waters beginning on Tuesday night as moisture levels begin to rise on strengthening east to northeast winds. Rain coverage is expected to increase through the remainder of the week as a system begins to organize in the Gulf of Mexico. Caution flags might be needed for strengthening winds and building seas. 42 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 95 67 96 67 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 95 71 96 73 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 88 76 89 76 / 0 0 0 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Batiste LONG TERM....42 AVIATION...Fowler MARINE...42