177
FXUS64 KHGX 041126
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
626 AM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday Night)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

On Thursday, we set record high minimum temperatures at ALL of
our climate sites. Based on how temperatures are trending this
morning (still in the mid to upper 70s as of ~3am), we`re going
to break a few more of those records today as well. Temperatures
as you walk out the door this morning will again be in the mid 70s
and with PW values above the 90th percentile, we`ll continue to
see those misty conditions. Right in that area where it`s not
enough for an umbrella, but just enough to be an annoyance. You
should keep an umbrella with you though for later today. Latest
surface analysis shows the quasi-stationary frontal boundary right
along the northern edge of the Brazos Valley, but it will retreat
50+ miles northward later this morning before reapproaching again
going into the afternoon.

As the front reapproaches the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods this
afternoon, the 00Z/06Z CAM`s show a line of showers with a few
embedded thunderstorms developing along the boundary. While this
is going on, the maxima of a 45-55 kt LLJ will be passing through
the region from south to north. The HRRR and the NAM are
indicating that we could see some convection pop up along the I-10
corridor this afternoon as that area falls into the left entrance
region providing additional lift through UL divergence. The
capping inversion is stronger further to the south, so it will be
a matter of if there is enough lift to overcome it. Convection
along the front is a safer bet, and if a storm is able to reach
its maximum potential then it could become capable of producing
all severe hazards. The SPC has a slight risk of severe weather
(level 2 of 5) for areas generally north of a Brenham-Huntsville-
Onalaska line and a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) between the
previously mentioned line and a Columbus-Conroe-Livingston line.
Damaging winds and large hail will be the primary hazards in any
of the stronger storms, but an isolated tornado cannot be ruled
out.

Temperatures this afternoon will top out in the mid to upper 80s
once again...and expect it to be another windy day as well. The
previously mentioned LLJ is expected to bring even windier
conditions later this morning into the afternoon, so another Wind
Advisory is in effect for the central and southern portions of
Southeast Texas from 7am-7pm. If winds overperform, I wouldn`t be
surprised to see the Wind Advisory expanded further northward. As
the front FINALLY begins to push into the region late tonight,
we`ll see rain chances climb along with a drop in temperatures in
the Brazos Valley. Low temperatures up there will be in the low to
mid 60s behind the front. Ahead of the front, another night of
near record high minimum temperatures as we bottom out in the low
to mid 70s...but there`s change on the horizon.

The cold front will continue pushing through Southeast Texas on
Saturday morning into the early afternoon. The latest CAM`s depict a
line of showers/storms right along the frontal boundary...and
some of the embedded thunderstorms have the potential to become
strong to severe as they move through. Once again, all hazard
types will be possible in any of the stronger storms but damaging
winds and large hail will be the primary hazards. For Saturday,
SPC has the majority of Southeast Texas in a slight risk of
severe weather but parts of Polk County are in an enhanced risk
(level 3 of 5). Just think of it as, the potential for storms to
become strong to severe increases the further east you are due to
a more favorable overlap of shear and instability. The front will
push offshore by the late afternoon/early evening hours, but we
could see some lingering showers into late Saturday night as an
upper level low tracks through the state. That takes us right
into Saturday night`s temperatures which look to be the coolest
we`ve had in about two weeks as we bottom out in the 40s/50s.

Batiste

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

Cooler and drier conditions to start the new week. Strong cold air
advection will take place behind the departing front, leading to
cooler northwest winds by Sunday. In addition, the main upper trough
will be moving north of the region; therefore, some wraparound
clouds will be expected mainly in the morning. Lastly, windy
conditions will continue. Tight pressure gradient will persist
behind the FROPA, resulting in breezy to windy conditions. Breezy
northwest winds and mostly cloudy skies will result a cold Sunday
morning with wind chills in the 30s across the Brazos Valley.
Temperatures will only climb into the upper 50s across our northern
counties to mid 60s across the coastal counties during the day.
Skies should gradually clear, especially across our southern
counties as the main upper forcing moves to the east. Make sure to
keep your jacket handy as temperatures are expected to drop into the
upper 30s to upper 40s Sunday night into Monday.

Winds will be weaker by Monday as pressure gradient relaxes and
surface high pressure moves overhead. A gradual warming trend is
expected after Tuesday as high pressure shifts to our east and
southerly flow returns to the region. Highs will gradually warm into
low 80s by the end of the week. Overnight lows mainly in the 50s and
60s. Ridging aloft and PWs below 1.0 inch will result in a
relatively dry week.

JM

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 626 AM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

MVFR conditions will prevail throughout most of the morning. As
winds begin to pick up, some sites could see intermittent periods
of VFR conditions later this morning into the early
afternoon. Southerly to southeasterly winds will be gusty again
today with sustained winds around 15-20 kt with 25-30+ kt gusts
through the afternoon. A line of showers with a few storms is
expected to develop just north of the area and drift into our
northern sites later this afternoon. For now this has been covered
in a PROB30 group as confidence on thunderstorm development is low
at the moment. This is especially the case for areas further south
where some 00Z high resolution model guidance is depicting some
potential convection. However, model guidance has backed off on
this solution during the 06Z run...but it`s worth mentioning that
there`s a non-zero chance for some convection to develop just east
of the Houston metro area this afternoon. Ceilings fill back in
overnight with widespread MVFR to IFR conditions prevailing.
Chances for showers/storms increase as a frontal boundary begins
to move in from the northwest on early Saturday morning.
Confidence in thunderstorms is much higher tomorrow along the
front, so be sure to keep an eye on future TAF updates for timing.

Batiste

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 340 AM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

Difficult to hazardous marine and beach conditions continue this
week and will likely persist into the weekend. A long fetch of
moderate to strong winds across the western Gulf will continue to
develop seas around 6 to 10+ ft along the Upper TX coast. Seas will
occasionally reach 12+ft as a cold front moves through by late
Saturday afternoon/early evening. Small Craft Advisories remain in
effect for the Bays and all Gulf waters. Rain and storms will be on
the increase on Saturday along and ahead the cold front.

High water levels during times of high tide will potentially lead to
minor coastal flooding along Gulf-facing beaches. Areas more prone
to be impacted by minor flooding could be those near Highway 87/124
along the Bolivar Peninsula, Western Galveston Island, Bluewater
Highway and Surfside. In addition, there is a high rip current risk
along all Gulf-facing beaches. A Beach Hazards Statement remains in
effect.

JM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  88  66  75  45 /  40  70  90  10
Houston (IAH)  88  74  83  51 /  20  30  90  30
Galveston (GLS)  83  74  80  54 /  10  10  70  50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ200-210>214-226-
     227-235>238-300-313-335>338-436>439.

     Beach Hazards Statement through late Saturday night for
     TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ330-335-350-
     355-370-375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Batiste
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION...Batiste
MARINE...JM