Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
396 FXUS64 KHGX 151845 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 145 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - Low daytime relative humidity values and dry vegetation will lead to enhanced fire weather concerns today. - Unseasonably warm weather continues as high temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s persist through the weekend. - A slight chance of isolated showers and storms is back in the picture Friday and Saturday before a weak cold front moves into the area early Sunday ushering in a return of drier weather. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 145 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025 If you want to find a cloud to mar today`s clear sky, you`re going to want to head to the Gulf coast (or hop on a boat and head offshore), because that`s the only place satellite indicates we`ve got any cloud action whatsoever going on. As a result, we`ve got temperatures in the 80s area-wide at 1pm, on our way to highs around 90 degrees for all but the immediate coast today. While temperatures are more reminiscent of late summer, northeasterly winds also being observed, and we are continuing to see yet another day of low humidity. This stretch of low humidity is nice in helping the unseasonably high temps feel less oppressive than we would otherwise expect around here. Unfortunately, given the dry vegetation around the area, it also increases the potential for new fire starts. For more on the fire weather situation, check that section down below. While this situation has been the deal since the last cold front, today will mark the end of this phase of our late summer/early fall pattern, as winds will veer to restore a Gulf connection late tonight into tomorrow. We`ll see dewpoints and precipitable water rise into Saturday, but not too unusually high levels for mid- October. We may see our first isolated seabreeze shower or two as early as tomorrow afternoon, but almost certainly by Friday afternoon. At the same time, we`ll see another weak, kinda back- doory front makes its way towards the area. Saturday, we should see a relative peak of heat, humidity, and two focal points for convection, and I`d expect scattered showers and storms to erupt, particularly the farther east you go in the area. As you look westward beyond I-45, and especially the Brazos and San Bernard rivers, rain potential will drop off. Even where rain chances are best, expect the character to be a smattering of scattered showers and storms popping up here and there, but favored closer to the front and seabreeze. Widespread rains are not anticipated. On the back side of the front...or at least, once this barely cooler but noticeably drier air mass moves in behind what remains of the front, we`ll begin the cycle anew with temperatures that are a bit cooler but still above average and very low humidity returning. We`ll get a little break from fire weather AFD sections shortly, but don`t get used to it - they`ll be back for early next week. Beyond that...it`s beyond this forecast period, but there will be another front later next week. Will it be any more effective at cooling things down? Actually...maybe it will! But that remains fairly speculative at this point, let`s get through this weekend front first. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 626 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025 VFR conditions continue today with NE to E winds during the day, becoming light and variable overnight. && .MARINE... Issued at 145 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025 Beginning tonight, we will transition from a light, daily land/seabreeze cycle to a more persistent onshore flow pattern into the weekend. Seas should be 3 feet or less for most of the work week, but gradually increase to around 4 feet on Friday into the early part of the weekend as the more persistent fetch sets up. Rain chances return by the end of the work week and remain through early Sunday when a weak cold front pushes into the area. At the beaches, we`ll also see potential for coastal hazards begin to tick upward as onshore flow becomes established for a longer period. The most dangerous conditions for rip currents and/or high tide levels will be Saturday, with onshore winds at their peak before the arrival of a weak cold front. Of the two, the rip current risk appears to be the most threatening at this time. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 145 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025 Very dry conditions persist for one more day today with minimum RH values in the 25-35 percent range for inland areas. This will exacerbate the dry fuel conditions - particularly for fine fuels such as grasses. Please exercise caution when working with open flames or equipment that can cause sparks. We will see the first hints of improvement tonight with winds becoming more onshore, and Gulf moisture begins to gradually move in. RH recovery tonight should be better than previous nights, and set us up for min RH values tomorrow generally above 40 percent, except very far inland in the Piney Woods and portions of the far northwest around Caldwell and Bryan/College Station. Rain chances will remain very low to near zero through Thursday, then gradually increasing Friday into the weekend, when a weak front is expected to move in. This front is expected to again be a relatively weak one, with scattered, rather than widespread rain development tempering the help we may see from the front`s approach. On the backside of this front, the incoming airmass again does not look much cooler but will be drier, returning us to very low humidity conditions again on Sunday. In our early fronts so far this fall, winds post-front have not been terribly strong, mitigating fire weather concern. That should again hold for most of the area this weekend, though there are some indications we could potentially see an overlap of dry enough air and just strong enough winds for some elevated fire weather conditions to emerge in the far northwest on Sunday afternoon. We`ll continue to evaluate this potential as we approach the weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 60 87 65 88 / 0 0 0 30 Houston (IAH) 66 86 70 87 / 0 0 10 40 Galveston (GLS) 76 83 76 84 / 0 20 30 40 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Luchs AVIATION...Adams MARINE...Luchs