Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
641 FXUS64 KHGX 141137 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 637 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1205 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025 - Low daytime relative humidity values and dry vegetation will lead to enhanced fire weather concerns through midweek. - Slight chance of isolated showers and storms Friday and Saturday before a weak cold front moves into the area on Sunday ushering in a return of drier weather. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1205 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025 The unseasonably warm and very dry conditions will persist through at least Wednesday as a ridge of high pressure builds over the Southern Plains. Afternoon high temperatures will be in the upper 80s to low 90s (cannot out rule some isolated hotter spots) with afternoon relative humidity values dropping into the 25-40% range. Winds will remain light helping to mitigate the fire weather danger somewhat, but more on this in the Fire Weather section below. By Thursday, the upper level ridge begins to shift to the east beginning a period of southerly flow aloft and at the surface leading to increased moisture moving into the region. This increase in moisture plus daytime heating will lead to isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms. An upper-level low will be making its way through the Southern Plains Saturday into Sunday, which will increase PVA over our region. This should allow for a slight increase in shower and thunderstorms activity Saturday into Sunday, but still limited enough coverage to cap PoPs around 40%. The associated cold front will push into SE Texas sometime Sunday (current guidance ranges from Sunday morning to Sunday night) ushering in slightly cooler temperatures, but much drier conditions from the start of the new work week. Fowler && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 634 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025 VFR conditions at all terminals with VFR expected to prevail through the period. Winds today will be light out of the NE with coastal terminals transitioning to an E/SE flow this afternoon with the sea breeze. Adams && .MARINE... Issued at 1205 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025 Light winds and low seas will prevail through the rest of the week. Winds will be more east to northeasterly through Wednesday, becoming predominately southeasterly Thursday into the weekend. There may be a brief period of moderate onshore winds Thursday night into Friday (around 15kt). A slight chance of showers and storms returns to the coastal waters as early as Thursday night with continued chances through the weekend. A weak boundary will approach, possibly slide through, the coastal waters late Sunday into Monday. Fowler && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1205 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025 Afternoon minimum relative humidity values is expected to be even lower Tuesday and Wednesday with inland areas dropping into the 30- 40% range on Tuesday, and then 25-40% range on Wednesday. Areas near the coast will be moderately higher, around 50%. Light northeasterly to easterly winds are expected during this timeframe, which is helping to mitigate some of the fire weather danger, but very dry vegetation plus the low RH values will lead to quick fire starts in the region. Please exercise caution when working with open flames/equipment that can cause sparks, especially in dry spots. The Texas A&M Forest Service Fire Danger index is in the moderate-very high territory. Some relief is expected Thursday into Friday as winds become more southerly ushering in higher moisture. Minimum RH values inland on Thursday will be around 40-50%, then 50-60% Friday and Saturday. There will even be some isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms Friday into Saturday. A weak cold front is expected to move into/pass through the area on Sunday bringing a return of the drier conditions. Fowler && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 91 61 90 60 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 90 66 89 66 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 86 73 84 76 / 0 0 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Fowler AVIATION...Adams MARINE...Fowler