517
FXUS64 KHGX 302344
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
544 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Colder and breezy conditions are occurring today in the wake of
  an overnight cold front. On the waters, Small Craft Advisories
  are in effect for all coastal waters through this evening, and
  on coastal Gulf waters until the morning.

- Chilly weather is in store for the first half of the week with
  overnight lows dropping into the 30s and 40s across the area -
  with some spots in the Piney Woods possibly dropping to freezing
  Monday night.

- There will be additional rain chances through the week: Monday
  into Monday night, and Wednesday night through Thursday night or
  Friday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 202 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

If most of our fall this year has felt more like an extension of
late summer, today`s conditions after the overnight/early morning
frontal passage are - finally - very much early SE Texas winter.
Temperatures have been mired around 50 degrees all day, and at
this point, things are only going to trend downwards. The entire
day has been socked in with cloud cover across virtually the
entire area, with gusty north to northeast winds and a smattering
of light showers near the coast and over the Gulf. After an
extended season of happy days for heat lovers, this week starts as
the time for those who like it chillier.

Tonight will be cold, but thanks to continued cloud cover and
winds only gradually beginning to diminish in strength, it
shouldn`t really be *that* cold. Indeed, my forecast lows tonight
are very close to seasonal averages in the upper 30s in the far
north to right around 50 degrees at the coast.

Tomorrow, things look to take today`s raw, true late
November/early December character and turn it up a notch. Look for
a weak coastal trough/low to spin up and make its way across the
northwestern Gulf. From a surface prog alone, it looks like it
would be far enough offshore that we`d end up nice and dry and
perhaps even fairly sunny. But then you take a glance up at the
850, 700, and 500 mb maps and you realize that`s not what we`re
gonna get.

Up in the midlevels, it looks like we`ll have a decently potent
little vort max stream over the Texas coast through the day,
helping support upward motion. and while surface level flow will
be northeasterly and dry, you don`t have to get very high off the
deck to see the cyclonic circulation fall apart and instead keep
onshore flow pumping in moist Gulf air into the north side of the
low (insert conveyor belt meteorological diagram here). With
moisture still being pumped into the column at fairly low levels
and into the cloud layer, precipitable water looks to actually
increase into tomorrow, rising to about an inch well inland, and
perhaps as high as 1.5 inches near the coast.

It`s a good thing we aren`t farther north where it`s colder,
because this is how you get those big ol` thumper snow bands to
set up 100ish miles north of the low center. Instead, we are just
going to get a cold, raw, rainy day where you`re probably just
going to want to stay inside with some warm comfort food. So,
uh...hopefully you saved onto those turkey bones and Thanksgiving
leftovers, because I`m forecasting a *prime* turkey soup day here.

Once the coastal low moves off, we`ll also see deeper offshore
flow setup and finally scour things out temporarily. On the one
hand, this means rain chances coming to an end and clouds
beginning to clear out. On the other hand, this means we`ll have
better cooling conditions overnight, and a bigger overnight chill
sets in. Key to just how cool we get looks to be the timing on
overnight clearing. For now...I`m sticking with the idea that we
won`t really see clouds break up for much of the area until late
Monday night. This should mean a cold night in the 30s for all but
the urban Houston core and right on the coast, but also would mean
that freezing temps should be confined to well north of the
Houston metro, perhaps even north of Huntsville.

For those who don`t love it quite that cold, some good news for
you as onshore winds should come back Tuesday evening, keeping
things from getting any colder Tuesday night, and starting a
warming trend through the midweek. I don`t want to get too too
into specifics here as we stay in a low amplitude, quite
progressive pattern aloft and that will make timing things out
extra difficult. But after a short stretch of fair weather, modest
warming and humidification, we`ll want to keep our eyes out for
the development of another coastal low late in the week to bring
us our next chances of showers and storms, particularly for the
coastal half of the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 539 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

Widespread MVFR conditions this evening are expected to trend IFR
as cigs drop overnight. Isolated to scattered SHRA activity is
expected to develop during the 07-09Z time frame, with more
widespread steadier RA occurring after 12Z. We could not rule out
a rumble of thunder. But any TSRA should be isolated, and not
common enough to warrant mention in the TAF. As the steady RA
settles in, vis is expected to average MVFR while cigs likely
stay in the IFR to lower end MVFR range through much of the rest
of the day. Could not rule out areas of LIFR tomorrow. Winds are
expected to remain NE and will be occasionally gusty.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 202 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

Gusty north to northeast winds with numerous lingering showers are
in place over the coastal waters following a frontal passage late
overnight and early this morning. Mariners are reporting winds of
20 to 30 knots through this morning and are expected to remain
elevated all day. Small Craft Advisories are in effect. Another
upper level disturbance will move through later tonight and Monday
bringing another round of rain and embedded thunderstorms.
Additional Small Craft Advisories are possible Monday night into
Tuesday morning as moderate to strong northeasterly winds develop
behind this exiting system.

At the coast, gusty offshore winds will likely result in some
negative tides for the next 2-3 low tide cycles for area ship
channels. For now, however, the winds do not look to push water
levels far enough below MLLW to reach thresholds for a low water
advisory.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  41  48  35  53 /  40  60  20   0
Houston (IAH)  44  50  39  55 /  50  90  50   0
Galveston (GLS)  51  58  46  57 /  50  90  60   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk until midnight CST tonight for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST tonight for GMZ330-335.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Monday for GMZ350-355-370-
     375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Luchs
AVIATION...Self
MARINE...Luchs