950
FXUS64 KHGX 191145
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
645 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday Night)
Issued at 238 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Another warm and breezy day is expected today as a disturbance to
the west leads to increased southerly flow across the region.
Increased cloud cover will keep temperatures slightly cooler than
yesterday, but still expecting highs in the mid to upper 80s for
most inland areas (and low 80s along the coast). There will be a
chance for some isolated streamer showers (and maybe a rumble of
thunder) in the Piney Woods/Brazos Valley due to passing
shortwaves aloft, but the best chances of showers and storms today
will be west of the I-35 Corridor. Another unseasonably warm night
is expected tonight due to the southerly flow and mostly cloudy
skies with lows in the low to mid 70s.

That upper-level disturbance to the west will exit into the
Southern Plains on Sunday with the associated cold front expected
to move into SE Texas Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. Showers
and thunderstorms associated with this front may reach the Piney
Woods/B-CS area as early as sunrise Sunday, but coverage is
expected to increase across most of the area by Sunday afternoon
due to a combination of daytime heating and the approaching front.
This slow moving front will continue to move into SE Texas Sunday
night continuing the showers and thunderstorms, and this front is
expected to stall before reaching the coast Monday morning. SPC
does maintain a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for strong to severe
storms Sunday afternoon and Sunday night along and north of I-10.
If any severe storms develop, strong wind gusts will be the main
concern, but cannot out rule other severe weather hazards. This
front is expected stall over the region leading into an active
work week ahead, but read more on that in the Long Term.

Fowler

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 238 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

SE Texas may still have to contend with the slow moving and
increasingly diffuse frontal boundary as we head into Monday.
However, there is some uncertainty regarding the amount of
shower/thunderstorm activity the region experiences during the first
day of the work week. The reason is due to the potential for the
atmosphere to be somewhat worked over by showers/thunderstorms that
occur late Sunday afternoon into the overnight and early Monday
morning. This may set the stage for a less warm and more stable
Monday. However, if we can manage more heating on Monday (or less
showers/storms the day/night before), the showers/storms could
re-fire during the afternoon. A potentially tricky set up that
relies on mesoscale processes that could be influenced by
Sunday/Sunday night`s weather.

But to those who want more rain, fear not! A series of disturbances
will keep a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast
through the long term. Tuesday`s activity looks isolated to
scattered and more diurnal in nature. Rain chances look to be higher
Wednesday and Thursday as a couple of more robust disturbances ride
the zonal flow aloft into SE Texas. We do need the rain. Therefore,
this forecast is mostly good news. But we cannot rule out a few
heavier thunderstorms along the way.

Self

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 637 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

MVFR conditions will generally prevail through this morning with
CIGs around 2000ft, with VFR conditions returning by the afternoon
with CIGs around 3500-5000ft. Southerly winds of around 10-15kt
will continue today with gusts to 20-25kt. MVFR conditions with
CIGs back down to near 2000ft return after sunset, expanding from
the coast northwards. A front approaching from the northwest will
bring showers Sunday morning with isolated thunderstorms beginning
to develop Sunday afternoon that will remain possible through
Sunday night.

Fowler

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 238 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

A large fetch of moderate to fresh winds continues to bring Small
Craft Advisory level winds and seas to the Upper Texas Coast and
adjacent Gulf waters. These winds and seas are expected to decrease
on Sunday into Monday. However, there will also be an increasing
chance of rain and thunderstorms on Sunday, and especially Sunday
night into early Monday. The pattern is expected to remain
relatively active through much of the upcoming week, with daily
shower and thunderstorm chances continuing through the forecast
period. Increasing onshore winds and seas are expected by the middle
half of the upcoming week. Rip current risk will remain high through
the weekend. Water levels will also be somewhat elevated, possibly
approaching 3 feet above MLLW during the high tide cycle over the
weekend.

Self

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  87  69  82  63 /  20  10  80  60
Houston (IAH)  86  72  85  69 /  10  10  70  70
Galveston (GLS)  81  74  81  73 /   0   0  40  50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ330-335-350-
     355-370-375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Fowler
LONG TERM....Self
AVIATION...Fowler
MARINE...Self