Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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682
FXUS64 KHGX 120822
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
322 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 250 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025

That upper-level low that has been stalled out over eastern Texas
into Louisiana over the last several days will finally be pushing
to the east today as high pressure builds over the Southern
Plains. While the main story last week was cooler weather with
continued chances for showers and storms, the story this week will
be unseasonably hot, summer-like weather (and no chance of rain
for quite awhile).

Temperatures today will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday as
clouds clear with the departing low pressure system and winds
begin to switch to the south. Highs this afternoon will be in the
low to mid 80s along and east of I-45, and mid to upper 80s west
of I-45. Low temperatures tonight will be in the low to mid 60s
for most areas, and then upper 60s to low 70s in the Houston Metro
and along the coast. Temperatures take a drastic increase on
Tuesday as the high pressure builds and breezy southwesterly
winds develop. High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 80s
along the coast, low to mid 90s for much of the region, and then
approaching the upper 90s west of the Brazos River, but north of
I-10. Heat indices will be rising into the mid to upper 90s during
the afternoon. Overnight lows Tuesday into Wednesday will be in
the low to mid 70s.

Fowler

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 1154 PM CDT Sun May 11 2025

Mid to upper level ridge will dominate the local weather pattern
through at least the end of the work week and will limit the
development of showers over SE TX. Although conditions will be
tranquil, expect summerlike temperatures mid-week as S-SE surface
winds and a W-SW low level jet increase our local temperatures.
We could be looking at high temperatures reaching 100 deg F over
portions of the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods region on Wednesday,
while the rest of the inland portions reach the mid to upper 90s
and the upper 80s to lower 90s over the immediate coast.

For the rest of the week, we can expect the highs to remain in
the mid to upper 90s over areas north of I-10, the low to mid 90s
over areas along and south of I-10, and the upper 80s to lower 90s
over the coasts. As stated in the previous discussion, the Heat
Indices will be in the lower 100s for most days, and even if this
range does not hit the Heat Advisory Criteria, it is recommended
to take the necessary precautions if you plant to work or spend
time outside given that we are not yet acclimated to these
temperatures. Take additional breaks and limit sun exposure,
drink plenty of water, and stay in the shade if possible. Be aware
of the symptoms of heat exhaustion.

With respect to the nighttime/early morning temperatures, the low
temperatures will also increase, going from the low to mid 70s on
Wednesday night to the mid to upper 70s by the end of the work
week.

Our next best chance for rain may occur during the weekend as a
few upper level shortwaves through TX. The bad news is that much
of this activity is mainly focused over the NE counties (in and
around Houston County).

Cotto - 24

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1154 PM CDT Sun May 11 2025

VFR throughout the TAF period. The western edge of a low pressure
system meandering over the LA region, continues over SE TX and
will lead to winds shifting mainly between 310 and 030 for the
next few hours. Once the low shifts more eastward, winds will
turn NW. UTS/CXO could have some lower cloud decks early Mon
morning and may lower to MVFR, although confidence is low. Expect
NW winds at 5-10 KTS and sunny to partly cloudy skies after 16Z
Monday.

Cotto - 24

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1154 PM CDT Sun May 11 2025

Light to occasionally moderate offshore winds and seas of 3 feet
or less is expected to prevail through Monday morning. Onshore
flow should return late Monday and strengthen mid-week as the
local pressure gradient tightens. Caution flags and Advisories
will be needed. The stronger winds will lead to a rise in seas,
the risk for strong rip currents along the beaches, and slightly
higher water levels. Winds will relax back to the light to
occasionally moderate range near the end of the work week and
into the upcoming weekend.

Cotto - 24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  83  62  97  72 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  84  66  94  73 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  82  74  84  77 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Fowler
LONG TERM....Cotto /24/
AVIATION...Cotto /24/
MARINE...Cotto /24/