


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
682 FXUS64 KHGX 120822 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 322 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025 ...New SHORT TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday Night) Issued at 250 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025 That upper-level low that has been stalled out over eastern Texas into Louisiana over the last several days will finally be pushing to the east today as high pressure builds over the Southern Plains. While the main story last week was cooler weather with continued chances for showers and storms, the story this week will be unseasonably hot, summer-like weather (and no chance of rain for quite awhile). Temperatures today will be a few degrees warmer than yesterday as clouds clear with the departing low pressure system and winds begin to switch to the south. Highs this afternoon will be in the low to mid 80s along and east of I-45, and mid to upper 80s west of I-45. Low temperatures tonight will be in the low to mid 60s for most areas, and then upper 60s to low 70s in the Houston Metro and along the coast. Temperatures take a drastic increase on Tuesday as the high pressure builds and breezy southwesterly winds develop. High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 80s along the coast, low to mid 90s for much of the region, and then approaching the upper 90s west of the Brazos River, but north of I-10. Heat indices will be rising into the mid to upper 90s during the afternoon. Overnight lows Tuesday into Wednesday will be in the low to mid 70s. Fowler && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Sunday) Issued at 1154 PM CDT Sun May 11 2025 Mid to upper level ridge will dominate the local weather pattern through at least the end of the work week and will limit the development of showers over SE TX. Although conditions will be tranquil, expect summerlike temperatures mid-week as S-SE surface winds and a W-SW low level jet increase our local temperatures. We could be looking at high temperatures reaching 100 deg F over portions of the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods region on Wednesday, while the rest of the inland portions reach the mid to upper 90s and the upper 80s to lower 90s over the immediate coast. For the rest of the week, we can expect the highs to remain in the mid to upper 90s over areas north of I-10, the low to mid 90s over areas along and south of I-10, and the upper 80s to lower 90s over the coasts. As stated in the previous discussion, the Heat Indices will be in the lower 100s for most days, and even if this range does not hit the Heat Advisory Criteria, it is recommended to take the necessary precautions if you plant to work or spend time outside given that we are not yet acclimated to these temperatures. Take additional breaks and limit sun exposure, drink plenty of water, and stay in the shade if possible. Be aware of the symptoms of heat exhaustion. With respect to the nighttime/early morning temperatures, the low temperatures will also increase, going from the low to mid 70s on Wednesday night to the mid to upper 70s by the end of the work week. Our next best chance for rain may occur during the weekend as a few upper level shortwaves through TX. The bad news is that much of this activity is mainly focused over the NE counties (in and around Houston County). Cotto - 24 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1154 PM CDT Sun May 11 2025 VFR throughout the TAF period. The western edge of a low pressure system meandering over the LA region, continues over SE TX and will lead to winds shifting mainly between 310 and 030 for the next few hours. Once the low shifts more eastward, winds will turn NW. UTS/CXO could have some lower cloud decks early Mon morning and may lower to MVFR, although confidence is low. Expect NW winds at 5-10 KTS and sunny to partly cloudy skies after 16Z Monday. Cotto - 24 && .MARINE... Issued at 1154 PM CDT Sun May 11 2025 Light to occasionally moderate offshore winds and seas of 3 feet or less is expected to prevail through Monday morning. Onshore flow should return late Monday and strengthen mid-week as the local pressure gradient tightens. Caution flags and Advisories will be needed. The stronger winds will lead to a rise in seas, the risk for strong rip currents along the beaches, and slightly higher water levels. Winds will relax back to the light to occasionally moderate range near the end of the work week and into the upcoming weekend. Cotto - 24 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 83 62 97 72 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 84 66 94 73 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 82 74 84 77 / 0 0 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Fowler LONG TERM....Cotto /24/ AVIATION...Cotto /24/ MARINE...Cotto /24/