463
FXUS64 KHGX 070945
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
345 AM CST Thu Nov 7 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 345 AM CST Thu Nov 7 2024

Warm front and higher dewpoint air is moving back inland.  Areas of
fog and drizzle are expanding in coverage...esp west of I-45 (and
moreso south of I-10). May need a short fuse dense fog advsy there
in the not too distant future. Isolated to sct shra and maybe an
embedded storm will be possible today near and to the north of the
warm frontal boundary. Otherwise, look for warm, muggy conditions
today with low cloudiness slowly lifting and scattering as the day
progresses.

Continued unseasonably warm tonight and again Friday with overnight
lows in the 70s and daytime highs in the 80s. Mid-upper trof
currently situated across the Desert Southwest will make some
gradual eastward progress. It`s associated front/dryline should make
its way toward Southeast Texas late in the day Friday and into the
overnight hours bringing with it a band of showers and
thunderstorms. Overall setup for severe wx looks fairly low, but
high PW`s between 1.5-2.0" will be resident in advance and some
localized heavy downpours can`t be ruled out. TS/H Rafael will
probably be situated 350-400 miles offshore to our SE, but other
than partially contributing to the higher PW`s across eastern parts
of the region, it shouldn`t be much of a factor for inland areas.
47

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 345 AM CST Thu Nov 7 2024

Saturday is FROPA day with a cold front pushing through in the
morning hours. Now stop me if this sounds familiar...but the front
will stall just off of the coast and linger around there going into
early next week. We just went through that with the previous cold
front! The cause is the upper level low providing the push for the
front will steadily track northeastward from the Central Plains up
towards the Great Lakes, so there`s not much left to push the front
further southward. As a result, chances for showers/storms and cloud
cover stick around into Sunday afternoon.

On the positive side, we will see some cooler temperatures with
highs on Saturday ranging from the low 70s to low 80s and low
temperatures ranging from the upper 50s to low 70s on Saturday
night. The upper 60s/low 70s on Saturday night are a bit uncertain,
because it depends on how much moisture is pulled in from the
northern side of Rafael along the stationary frontal boundary
offshore. The good news though is that the front will be our shield
and keep Rafael to our south, so we are still not expecting any
impacts from Rafael other than increasing wave heights from swells,
elevated tidal levels, and increased risk of rip currents over the
weekend. Moisture from Rafael though is expected to keep broken to
overcast cloud cover along the coast on Saturday night leading to
above normal temperatures overnight.

Slightly drier air will be in place on Sunday along with plentiful
sunshine leading to decreasing rain chances and slightly warmer
daytime temperatures with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Partly
cloudy skies, light winds, and drier air on Sunday night should
allow us to cool slightly more with low temperatures in the upper
50s to mid 60s. Brief ridging builds in early next week as upper
level high pressure over northern Mexico expands northward along
with a return of onshore flow. This takes us on a warming trend with
high temperatures trending towards the mid to upper 80s by Tuesday.
With rain chances remaining on the slim side, plenty of peeks of
sunshine, and 850mb temperatures around or above the 90th
percentile, I did bump temperatures up above guidance a little bit
for Monday and Tuesday.

Model guidance remains in good agreement on a strong cold front
pushing through Southeast Texas midweek with cooler and much drier
air filtering in behind it. Chances for showers and storms return
along the frontal boundary though, but we`ll take that for a return
to more seasonal temperatures. Not going to throw out any
deterministic numbers this far out, so let`s take a probabilistic
approach! As of right now, the probabilities for low temperatures
below 60F is 75% or greater for inland locations on Wednesday and
Thursday night. The odds are in our favor at the moment for some
sweater weather and I`m here for it! Let`s just hope that this trend
persists...I`ve been hurt before. Keeping my fingers, toes, and eyes
crossed!

Batiste

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 345 AM CST Thu Nov 7 2024

IFR/LIFR ceilings and fog will prevail into the mid morning hours,
with just some gradual improvement in the late morning time period.
Spotty areas of dz/-ra might also be around, but better chances of
shra can probably be expected closer to CLL today. Expect ceilings
to lift into VFR territory early this afternoon areawide followed by
a gradual return of MVFR/IFR stratus filling back in overnight. 47

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 345 AM CST Thu Nov 7 2024

Some patchy fog around Matagorda Bay early this morning has prompted
a Marine Dense Fog Advisory. There is potential for Galveston Bay to
be added to the advisory as well if decreased visibilities become
more widespread. Visibilities may continue to gradually deteriorate
towards 6 AM, then begin to improve shortly after sunrise.
Southeasterly winds this morning will transition to easterly by the
afternoon and prevail going into the weekend. Wind speeds increase
to moderate Thursday night into Friday with conditions being
borderline for caution flags. Chances for showers and storms
increase late Friday/Saturday as another cold front moves through
the region and brings another period of northeasterly winds.

Wave heights increase to 6-9 feet by late Friday due to swells from
from Hurricane Rafael, which will likely necessitate Small Craft
Advisories in the Gulf waters over the weekend. Rafael`s swells are
also expected to bring elevated tidal levels and an increased rip
current risk over the weekend. Seas begin to subside in the latter
half of the weekend with onshore flow returning by early next week.
A stronger cold front looks to push offshore midweek bringing
moderate to strong offshore flow in its wake.

Batiste

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  84  71  82  64 /  40  20  60  80
Houston (IAH)  85  74  84  70 /  30  10  40  70
Galveston (GLS)  82  76  81  73 /   0  10  30  60

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for GMZ330.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...47
LONG TERM....Batiste
AVIATION...47
MARINE...Batiste