462
FXUS64 KHGX 150509
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1109 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 156 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024

Ridging aloft across the Plains and broad surface high pressure at
the surface will keep quiet weather in place across SE Texas through
the end of the work week. With clear skies and light offshore flow,
lows tonight/Friday morning will be in the lower 40s/lower 50s
inland and mid 50s/lower 60s along the coast. Portions of the Brazos
Valley/Piney Woods area could see lows drop below 40 degrees. The
aforementioned ridge axis aloft and associated surface high are
expected to drift easterly throughout the day on Friday. As a
result, winds will veer southeasterly Friday evening, initiating WAA
and moisture return heading into the weekend. Highs for Friday will
be in the 70s, with isolated spots approaching the 80 degree mark.
Lows for Friday night/Saturday morning will be in the 40s/mid 50s
inland and upper 50s/mid 60s along the coast.

03

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 156 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024

Onshore flow returns by Saturday as surface high pressure drifts
northeastward towards the Ohio River Valley and ridging aloft
persists. As a result, we`ll see a gradual increasing trend in
temperatures and low-level moisture over the weekend. By Sunday,
we`ll have high temperatures back in the low to mid 80s along with
chances for scattered WAA rain showers west of I-45. Overnight low
temperatures will see a similar climb as well. You know how high
temperatures are in the 70s for most of the short term period?
Yeah...that`s gonna be our LOW temperatures Sunday night. Gotta love
good ol` WAA, overcast clouds, and breezy winds overnight preventing
our temperatures from seeing much in the way of "cooling". On the
plus side, we`ll only have one night of absurdly warm overnight
temperatures as we have our next cold front on the way that looks to
bring us the coldest air of the season so far.

Let`s dive deeper into this cold front...first up is what`s causing
it. An embedded upper level low moving eastward across the
southwestern CONUS/northern Mexico over the weekend will generate
surface cyclogenesis in west Texas late Sunday/early Monday. This
tightens up the pressure gradient leading to increasing
southeasterly winds along with increasing low-level moisture within
the warm sector of the developing low. That`ll be the cause of the
streamer showers on Sunday and into Monday ahead of the front.
There`ll be quite the strong LLJ extending from central Texas to
north Texas on Sunday night/Monday, and some of those strong winds
aloft (40-50 kts) will extend into the Brazos Valley. There won`t be
much instability to pair with this excess of speed shear, but there
will likely be enough shear for at least a small chance for an
isolated thunderstorm ahead of the front to be capable of some gusty
winds. The SPC has a 15% probability (equivalent of a slight level
2 out of 5 risk) on Monday just to our northwest, so it wouldn`t
surprise me to see a marginal risk (level 1 out of 5) for portions
of the Brazos Valley due to the strong wind potential if these
trends hold as the event nears.

Timing for the surface front looks to generally be on Monday
afternoon with showers and isolated thunderstorms along the frontal
boundary. PW values will surge up to 1.7-2.0" along the boundary, so
locally heavy rainfall will be possible in any of the stronger
showers/storms. This should be a fast moving front though given the
temperature gradient behind it. We`ll see low temperatures fall into
the 50s/60s on Monday night, but the real push of cold air happens
on Tuesday afternoon with the passage of the 850mb front. After that
front, high temperatures will be relegated to the 60s for high
temperatures (and maybe even the upper 50s north of I-10). Low
temperatures are expected to be the coldest of the season so far
with lows in the 40s/50s on Tuesday night and in the 30s/40s on
Wednesday/Thursday night. It hasn`t felt like fall much this
season, so I`m checking off as much as I can on my cold weather
list: drinking hot cocoa, baking cookies, Christmas movie
marathons (I know we haven`t made it to Thanksgiving yet....don`t
@ me), and wearing jackets/hoodies/sweaters ALL day rather than
just in the morning time.

Batiste

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1108 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024

VFR/SKC. Light N to NE winds tonight becoming E to SE at around 5 to
10 knots tomorrow. SE winds heading into tomorrow night (around 5 knots
inland TAFs, around 10 knots GLS), and it looks like we will be seeing
increasing low clouds (potential MVFR ceilings) as the overnight hours
progress (late Friday night into early Saturday morning).  42

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 156 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024

Moderate northerly winds and elevated seas will gradually decrease
throughout the day. Caution flags remain up for the Gulf waters
through the afternoon hours, but those will drop off before sunset.
Winds gradually become more easterly by Friday, then southeasterly
by Saturday morning leading to onshore flow prevailing into early
next week. This persistent onshore flow combined with the full moon
will lead to elevated tide levels. During high tide, water levels
could get up to ~4 ft above MLLW beginning Friday and continuing
into the weekend. Coastal Flood Advisories will be likely for this
time period. Winds and seas begin to increase on Sunday ahead of the
next approaching storm system that will bring us our next cold front
on late Monday/early Tuesday. Showers and isolated thunderstorms
will accompany the front as it passes through. Advisories and/or
caution flags will be needed both ahead of the front and certainly
afterwards. Strong northerly winds and elevated seas will prevail in
the wake of the front with the potential for some wind gusts to gale
force through midweek.

Batiste

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  42  77  48  80 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  48  77  53  79 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  60  75  65  78 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$