Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
053 FXUS64 KHGX 142308 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 608 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 134 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025 - Low daytime relative humidity values and dry vegetation will lead to enhanced fire weather concerns through tomorrow. - Unseasonably warm weather continues as high temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s persist through the weekend. - A slight chance of isolated showers and storms is back in the picture Friday and Saturday before a weak cold front moves into the area on Sunday ushering in a return of drier weather. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 134 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025 Today is my first day back after a recovery weekend following midnight shifts, and...the forecast doesn`t really look all that different? Not that I`m complaining! If we`re going to get stuck in a prolonged pattern, we could do worse than long stretches of fair weather with above average daytime temperatures, punctuated occasionally by weak cold fronts to filter in some drier air and help make for some cooler nights. It`s still not all great, though, as the drier air takes RH down to some low numbers (well, by our standards anyway), and with a lack of rain to keep moisture in vegetation up, well...there`s a fire weather section below. It`s existence alone should signal that it`s a time to be cautious with flame and sparks outdoors. And ultimately, that becomes probably our major story of the forecast period. With light, mostly offshore flow but still lots of sun for daytime heating, we`re seeing not quite critically low RH today and tomorrow, but it`ll be down there. Fortunately, with high pressure dominating and the pressure gradient pretty slack, we don`t have a lot of wind to push any fire starts around very strongly. Heat could be another secondary concern, as temperatures are pretty persistently above average. The low humidity should help here though, as shade and breezes should be helpful to mitigate heat stress. Drier air will also allow for the heat to dissipate at night and give folks relief then. And, we also have a population acclimated to a long, hot summer as well. This is probably a spot where the experimental HeatRisk tool actually does capture the heat threat relatively well, as we`re mostly concerned about unseasonable temperatures. It chimes in with low to moderate risk. Not a widespread concern, but if you`re a person normally sensitive to heat, or will be spending more time out in the sun than you`re used to, it`ll be good to take it a bit easy and not push yourself beyond your limits. As we head deeper into the week, the threat for fire starts should begin to wane some as persistent onshore flow begins for the late week. This will boost humidity, which is maybe not as fun to experience as the more crisp, dry air, but will keep RH values higher and reduce the probability of new fires. As moisture gradually builds, we may see some slight chances for showers and storms return as early as Thursday afternoon`s seabreeze. Anything that early would be very isolated and weak - Friday afternoon should see a bit better chance. But, the best potential for rain in the next week will come as a weak front makes its way into the area this weekend. Like all the other fronts we`ve seen so far this fall, it will not be terribly vigorous, so we`re not really looking at widespread rainfall here, even in a wettest-case scenario. We`re more looking at scattered showers and storms using the front as a focus for initiation along with the seabreeze. Timing is still getting nailed down, but there`s enough confidence that I`d peg Saturday through Sunday morning as the prime window. After that front works through, some drier, though not much cooler air will filter back into the area, ridging will build back over the Gulf, and we begin the cycle anew. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 603 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025 VFR conditions will continue to prevail through the period with light/variable winds overnight, becoming northeasterly to easterly through the day on Wednesday (between 6-10kt). Some patchy fog is possible at LBX late tonight, but any fog that develops will quickly dissipate after sunrise. Fowler && .MARINE... Issued at 1252 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025 The landbreeze/seabreeze cycle should generally prevail for trough the middle of the week, but later into the week, a more persistent onshore flow will come to dominate. Seas should be 3 feet or less for most of the week. Rain chances could return by the end of the work week. At the shore, conditions are similarly relatively quiet, though not entirely so. Rip current risk is rather low, and looks to remain so until the end of the week when onshore flow strengthens ahead of an approaching front. The diurnal wind cycle is keeping water levels above astronomical norms, but not excessively so for now. For the next few days, high tide should be roughly in line with the highest astronomical tides. There are some indications that we may see another boost in water levels at high tide late in the week. This makes sense given the more persistent onshore flow expected, though there is still uncertainty in how much higher the water levels will be depending on the strength and direction of the fetch that sets up. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 134 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025 With the dry conditions in place, we have another window through Wednesday in which high fire danger is creeping into our portion of Southeast Texas. The main concern here will be for an increased number of fire starts. We`ll have low RH hitting minimums around or below 30 percent today and tomorrow for inland areas. This will directly impact fine fuel moistures, keeping them low, and prime a "thirsty" atmosphere with a modestly high vapor pressure deficit anomaly. With ERC values broadly in the 75-90th percentile indicating drier than usual fuels, all it will take is a source of ignition for a wildfire to begin. The winds, on the other hand, appear to be a bit of a mitigating factor. Winds less than 10 knots are anticipated through this dry stretch. So, while we may be in an environment conducive to fire starts, the lower winds should make them spread less quickly and be more receptive to firefighting efforts. Still, it`s best not to have the wildfire in the first place, so extra caution through tomorrow with flame and equipment that can generate sparks is the way to go. Later in the week, we should see improvement in the situation as winds become more onshore, and more humid air works back in from the Gulf. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 62 89 58 88 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 65 89 65 87 / 0 0 0 10 Galveston (GLS) 74 83 75 84 / 0 0 0 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Luchs AVIATION...Fowler MARINE...Luchs