863
FXUS64 KHGX 281746
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1146 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday Night)
Issued at 212 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2025

Surface high pressure continues to sit firmly in place, so we can
expect a decreasing trend in cloud cover through out the day leading
into abundant sunshine. Temperatures this afternoon will be a bit on
the warm side as we top out mainly in the mid 70s...but not too warm
for those dressing up in western attire for Go Texan Day today
(yeehaw!). Weak onshore flow returns today as well leading to a
gradual increasing trend in low-level moisture. That means that
patchy fog is expected to make a return yet again later tonight into
Saturday morning mainly for locations near and south of I-10. Low
temperatures tonight will be mainly in the low 50s.

Onshore flow fully establishes on Saturday as we continue on the
warming trend leading to high temperatures in the upper 70s to low
80s across Southeast Texas for the first day of Meteorological
Spring. Water temperatures in the bays and nearshore Gulf waters
remain in the upper 50s, which dew points are expected to reach that
point some time on Saturday afternoon. As a result, we could begin
to see patches of sea fog begin to develop which could move inland
as we head into the evening/nighttime hours...but there is a
potentially inhibiting factor. Low temperatures will range from the
low to mid 50s in spite of a cold front backing into the area from
the northeast on Saturday night (parent surface low pressure in NE
CONUS/E Canada). You won`t really notice any differences as far as
temperatures go, but this front will briefly decrease dew points
overnight. This may actually decrease the sea fog threat around
Galveston Bay with dew points falling into the low 50s, but dew
points may remain elevated enough around Matagorda Bay for the sea
fog threat to persist.

Batiste

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 212 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2025

Increasing southerly flow will bring an influx of moisture into SE
Texas through the first couple of days of next week leading to
mostly cloudy skies and possible coastal fog. A weak shortwave
sliding through the Red River Valley Sunday evening into Monday
morning may bring some isolated showers to the Piney Woods - but
the best chance for rainfall will be to the northeast of our
region. A stronger upper level disturbance will be moving through
the Desert Southwest on Monday that will increase WAA and moisture
advection across SE Texas (PWATs will rise near 1.3" by Monday
afternoon/evening). This may lead to some isolated streamer
showers popping up Monday afternoon, but rain chances don`t
increase much until Tuesday morning/afternoon as the cold front
associated with that upper level disturbance slides on through.
Again the Piney Woods and areas to the north and east will have
the best chance of seeing showers and storms, but activity may
spread as far south as the coast. There is potential for some
isolated strong to severe storms to develop out ahead of and along
the cold front with the greater chances being in the Piney Woods
where SPC maintains a 15% chance of severe weather. Cooler/drier
weather is expected Tuesday night through the remainder of the
work week following the passage of that aforementioned front.

Fowler

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1135 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2025

VFR across the board through most of the period. Terminals near
the coast may experience a brief window of MVFR VSBYs (4-5 SM).
Otherwise, winds will be light and variable through most of the
period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 212 AM CST Fri Feb 28 2025

Light winds and low seas are expected to persist through Saturday
with increasing easterly winds of 15 knots with gusts to 20 knots
expected by Sunday. Onshore flow will persist through the first
half of next week until the passage of a cold front late Tuesday.
Small Craft Advisories (or at least small craft needing to
exercise caution) are possible as early as Monday night due to
strong onshore flow ahead of the front, and again possible
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning due to gusty northerly winds
following the passage of the front. A line of showers and storms
will also likely accompany the frontal passage, but otherwise most
of next week is looking rain-free.

With onshore flow returning by Saturday morning, the potential
for sea fog returns with periods of patchy fog remaining possible
until the passage of the cold front on Tuesday. However, the
moderate to occasionally strong southerly winds may help inhibit
fog development.

Fowler

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  74  51  80  51 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  76  54  80  54 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  66  56  67  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Batiste
LONG TERM....Fowler
AVIATION...Adams
MARINE...Fowler