Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
660 FXUS64 KHGX 021757 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1257 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025 ...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1257 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025 - Isolated showers/storms possible throughout the work week. - Hot temperatures persist with highs in the 90s and heat indices in the 100s. - Saharan dust leading to hazy skies will prevail into the weekend. - 4th of July forecast still hot and mostly dry...can`t rule out a shower/storm but no issues anticipated for the evening firework shows, but continue to practice heat safety. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1257 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025 A quick summary of the forecast is brought to you by the letter H: hot, hazy, and hardly a chance of rain...at least for the next few days for that last part. With mid to upper level ridging in place and the main ridge axis continuing to nudge eastward over the Central/Southern Plains, we remain with increased subsidence. Combine that with the layer of Saharan dust today and we have a very slight chance that a rogue shower/storm could develop. Interestingly enough, this is the 3rd day in a row that the HRRR has been consistent on showing that the lone storm that develops will be right in the Houston metro area...because of course! Thursday features a rather decent chance of rainfall as an embedded shortwave trough along with a weak frontal boundary (don`t get too excited) breaches the ridging pattern. The best rain chances for Thursday will be west of I-45 and north of SH 30/US-190 (near Huntsville). Otherwise, the next best chances of rain come during the latter half of the weekend and into next week as mid-level high pressure slides off to the west allowing for various disturbances to drift into the area. A coastal trough looks to also come into play some time next week as well, so for this timeframe the best rain chances will be along and south of the I-10 corridor. That covers all of the rain...now let`s talk about the heat! High temperatures will top out in the low to mid 90s through Friday and then rise into the mid to upper 90s over the weekend as 850mb temperatures go on the rise. As y`all know...it ain`t Houston without the humidity. Dew points will be mostly in the mid 70s but will mix out into the upper 60s/low 70s during the afternoon hours. We`ll still see heat indices peaking into the 102-106F range, which is below our threshold for a Heat Advisory. Keep in mind though, that these temperatures still pose a hazard if you are outdoors for an extended period of time. The 4th of July still looks to be hot and mostly dry (slight chance of rain in the afternoon before the firework shows begin) with high temperatures mainly in the mid 90s. This`ll be a day where a lot of you will be outdoors for an extended period of time, so please have heat safety at the top of your mind. It`ll still be in the upper 80s/low 90s when the firework shows begin with southerly winds around 10 mph at most. Practice heat safety: know the signs of heat related illnesses, stay hydrated (with water), take frequent breaks from the heat, wear loose/light- colored clothing and sunscreen, and ALWAYS LOOK before you LOCK your vehicle. Don`t forget about your pets as well! If the ground is too hot for the palm of your hand, then it is too hot for their paws. While I still have y`all`s attention, I`m sure y`all have been noticing the grayish tint to the skies over the past few days due to the ongoing Saharan dust plume. The good news is that this plume will work its way out of here by Thursday...the bad news is that another plume will move in late Friday through Sunday...and there`s another plume that looks to move in around the middle of next week. The best news is that these constant plumes of Saharan dust will help to keep the Gulf quiet in terms of the forbidden T word (*whispers* "tropical"), but it does come at the price of decreased air quality along with irritants to eyes/sinuses for some of us...I`m scratching my eyes as I type this! Batiste && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 523 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025 With the exception of some early morning & late night fog, mainly outside of the main Houston terminals, VFR conditions and light winds are expected. There may be an isolated pop-up shower/tstm or two in the area in the 20-23 timeframe, but chances are too low to mention in the TAFs attm. 47 && .MARINE... Issued at 1257 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025 Generally light to occasionally moderate onshore flow and low seas will prevail throughout the week. Isolated showers/storms will be possible through the work week with the next best rain chances late in the weekend into next week. Conditions will be hot and dry for the 4th of July. Saharan dust will continue to produce hazy skies throughout the day today, and another plume is expected to move in Friday and persist through the weekend. Batiste Beach conditions: Use caution heading to the beach as a moderate risk of rip currents along all Gulf-facing beaches continues through Saturday. Always swim near a lifeguard and avoid swimming near piers and jetties. JM && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 75 93 76 94 / 0 30 10 10 Houston (IAH) 77 95 77 94 / 0 20 10 20 Galveston (GLS) 81 89 81 90 / 0 10 10 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Batiste AVIATION...47 MARINE...Batiste