466
FXUS64 KHGX 061127
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
627 AM CDT Sun Oct 6 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday Night)
Issued at 351 AM CDT Sun Oct 6 2024

There`s not as much activity over the coastal waters this morning as
there has been the last couple of overnight/early morning hours. All
of this is likely due to the exiting upper jet as well as a slightly
drier air mass filtering down into the region from the NE. So...this
pattern will produce less clouds, lower humidity, and warmer daytime
temperatures across SE TX today and tomorrow.

For temperatures, highs today and tomorrow will range from the upper
80s to lower 90s across the Piney Woods and along the coast, but for
locations west of I-45 (including much of Metro Houston), we will be
pushing into the mid 90s. Some records could be broken if these num-
bers verify. See below.

Lows the next couple of nights will run from the mid 60s over our N/
NE counties... the upper 60s to lower 70s for the rest of the inland
areas...and then the lower to mid 70s at the beaches. 41

                Record Highs

       Today (10/6)       Mon (10/7)

CLL      100/1892          97/1922

IAH       94/1928          95/1956

HOU       92/2005          95/1956
             2009
             2018

GLS       91/1897          91/2019

PSX       95/2005          94/1956

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 351 AM CDT Sun Oct 6 2024

A pattern shift finally arrives on Tuesday as a cold front
extending from a surface low over the Northern Great Lakes pushes
into the area. While the passage of this boundary is not expected
to bring any rainfall thanks to a lack of instability and
relatively low total PW values. With moderate northeast winds
prevailing in the wake of the front, a significant intrusion of
cooler and much drier air is expected to bring about conditions
more typical of early October with conditions otherwise being
uneventful for the remainder of the week and into the weekend.
High temperatures through Saturday will remain confined to the
upper 80s to near 90 inland and the low to mid 80s along the
immediate coast. Overnight lows will generally sit in the upper
50s across the far northern zones, the lower 60s along the I-10
corridor, the mid 60s in inner metro Houston (due in part to the
urban heat island effect), and the upper 60s along the coast.
Perhaps a more noticeable effect will be a significant dropoff in
humidity, with dew points dropping into the 40s and 50s over the
course of the week. Surface winds will generally diminish over
the course of the week as a broad area of surface high pressure
settles into the Central CONUS. Given limited moisture
availability and a lack of forcing, no rainfall is forecast for
SE TX through at least Saturday.

Cady

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 620 AM CDT Sun Oct 6 2024

Will be continuing with VFR conditions this package. NE Winds will
be increasing to 7-12kts this afternoon...decreasing this evening/
overnight. 41

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 351 AM CDT Sun Oct 6 2024

Elevated east winds will continue into Monday, which has prompted
an extension of the caution and the issuance of a Small Craft
Advisory for the offshore zones today. Additional cautions and/or
advisories are likely to be needed on Monday as wind speeds remain
near 20 knots. On Tuesday, a cold front will move into the area
with moderate northeast winds developing behind the advancing
boundary. Aside from the limited chance of a shower or two well
offshore today, no rainfall is expected throughout the course of
the upcoming week.

Cady

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  94  67  94  64 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  93  71  94  69 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  88  77  88  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through this evening for
     GMZ350-355.

     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this
     evening for GMZ370-375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....Cady
AVIATION...41
MARINE...Cady