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FXUS64 KHGX 072329
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
529 PM CST Fri Feb 7 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 356 PM CST Fri Feb 7 2025

The warm and humid streak continues...and if you`re like me, then
your sinuses have felt the impacts of this. Since Monday, the mold
spore count has increased by ~250%...they thrive in humid conditions
so that lines up. If you`re sneezing every few minutes, now you know
what to blame. The weather pattern remains effectively unchanged
from the past few days with southwesterly flow aloft (WAA) at 850mb
leading to 850mb temperatures reaching their MAX percentiles. This
anomalously warmer air gets mixed down to the surface and we have
our well above normal/near record temperatures. For more on the
potential record temperatures, see the Climate section down below.
We`re battling some mid-level cloud decks this afternoon though
around the Brazos Valley, which should at least delay temperatures
from reaching the mid 80s. It could prevent that entirely and we end
up with high temperatures just in the low 80s up there, that`s all
dependent on how long the cloud cover blocks out most of the solar
radiation. Either way, expecting most locations to top out in the
upper 70s to low 80s this afternoon.

Tonight, we`re expecting low temperatures to bottom out mainly in
the mid to upper 60s along with yet another round of patchy dense
fog. The fog tonight "should" be relegated mainly to the coast as a
25-35 kt LLJ moves in overnight which will keep inland winds
elevated enough to inhibit most fog development. Along the coast
though, we`re already seeing sea fog roll back in along the
beaches...so it`s only a matter of time before it scoots back
inland. Temperatures on Saturday are expected to be a bit warmer
since we`ll get more solar radiation reaching the surface,
especially north of I-10. Expect mid to UPPER 80s north of I-10
tomorrow and low to mid 80s elsewhere (except along the immediate
coast where highs will be in the 70s). Winds will be calmer on
Saturday night especially south of I-10, so yet another round of
radiation fog/sea fog is expected. Low temperatures will be in the
mid to upper 60s again, but portions of the Brazos Valley may drop
into the low 60s depending on the progression of a cold front. I`ll
be at our doorsteps early Sunday morning...you can read more about
that in the long term discussion below.

Batiste

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 356 PM CST Fri Feb 7 2025

A shallow cold front will be making its way into northern parts of
the CWA Sunday evening along with some isolated showers. There is
considerable uncertainty just how far south it`ll make it before
stalling Sunday night. Was hoping for a better model consensus
today, but that ain`t happening. NAM12, which typically does
decent with these shallow airmasses, takes it pretty close to the
coast, while several others suggest along/north of I-10. So,
temperature forecasts will be quite the challenge - not only
Sunday night but into midweek as this boundary will waffle north-
south through midweek. Have mixed in a blend of NBM/NAM12 temps
into the grids, but proportion of the colder guidance may be
warranted near and to the north of where the boundary is situated
on a daily basis. Rain chances will initially be low, but substantially
increase Tuesday and Wednesday as surges of Gulf moisture make
their way inland and interact with the front and some upper level
disturbances moving overhead. By late Wednesday, surface high
pressure will build southward thru the Plains and give the front a
much needed push offshore. Rain chances should taper down and
temps return to near seasonable levels in its wake. 47

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 521 PM CST Fri Feb 7 2025

GLS is disappearing into the sea fog already...and though it may
not be consistently slammed in until the evening, a prevailing
1/4SM is the most appropriate description already. Fog should
remain an issue tonight for coastal sites LBX and GLS for sure.
Farther inland, focus should be more on low stratus rather than
fog as developing low level jet just west of due southerly helps
keeps winds up. This is most confident north of metro at CLL and
UTS. More of an open question as to whether limiting factor will
be fog or stratus at CXO, IAH, HOU, and SGR. Expecting winds to
favor low CIGs, but do have some modest VSBY reductions here as
well, not too different from persistence.

Tomorrow, should get gradual improvement as the sun rises through
the morning, finally breaking out into VFR in the afternoon.
Gustier conditions (10G20KT) I introduce in the overnight up north
should become an area-wide feature mid-morning as well.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 356 PM CST Fri Feb 7 2025

Patches of dense fog near the coast will expand in coverage later
this evening then move into the southern and central bays
overnight. It should erode in the bays in the mid morning hours
then linger in the Gulf during the day. A general repeat scenario
is anticipated through the weekend. Otherwise, light onshore
winds and low seas will prevail into early next week. A weak,
nearly stalled front may meander around the coast Tuesday and
Wednesday, finally getting a much needed push offshore late
Wednesday. 47

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 356 PM CST Fri Feb 7 2025

Yesterday, February 6th, was quite the record-breaking day! All of
our local climate sites set records with Houston/Bush
Intercontinental, Houston/Hobby, College Station, and Galveston
setting a new record high maximum temperature. Palacios also set a
new record for a daily high minimum temperature. The records for
today (February 7th) are a bit out of reach for most
locations...Palacios will likely come the closest. Either way it`s
notable that we`ll be continue to be near record temperatures at
least through Saturday. Through the first week of February, we`re on
track for the warmest February on record for all sites (except
Galveston where it`s currently #2 behind 2017). It`s still early on
so that`ll likely change, but it`s definitely worthy of a mention!

In case you`re curious, the average first day with high temperatures
above 80F for the City of Houston is Valentine`s Day (February
14th)...how lovely! However, since 1995, we`ve reached 80+F sixteen
times in January...which is around 53% of the time during that 30
year period. Only thing more shocking than that is realizing that
1995 was 30 years ago.

High Temperature Records for February 7th:

-College Station: 90F (1891)
-Houston/Bush Intercontinental: 86F (2017)
-Houston/Hobby: 85F (2017)
-Palacios: 80F (1957)
-Galveston: 80F (2017)

High Temperature Records for February 8th:

-College Station: 86F (2017)
-Houston/Bush Intercontinental: 87F (2017)
-Houston/Hobby: 86F (2017)
-Palacios: 81F (1950)
-Galveston: 79F (2017)

Batiste

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  68  87  65  77 /   0   0  20  10
Houston (IAH)  68  84  67  81 /   0   0  10  10
Galveston (GLS)  64  77  63  72 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST Saturday for GMZ350-355.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Batiste
LONG TERM....47
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...47