Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
020 FXUS64 KHGX 161643 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1143 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - Daytime relative humidity values higher today, but dry vegetation keeps moderate to high fire danger rating for the area. - Unseasonably warm weather continues as high temperatures in the mid 80s to lower 90s persist into early next. - Chances for isolated to scattered showers and storms Friday and Saturday. Isolated activity expected today. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1101 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 The warm and mostly dry pattern continues today, with temperatures generally skewing about 5 degrees warmer than average. That translates to afternoon highs in the mid/upper 80s, with a few spots up around 90 degrees. However, a plume of higher PWATs is pushing towards the region, increasing atmospheric moisture over SE Texas. Isolated showers, primarily at the coast and offshore, are expected today as a result. Moisture levels increase further on Friday and Saturday ahead of an eastward progressing deep-layer trough in the mid/upper levels and a frontal boundary at the surface. This should result in a better chance of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms on both days. PoPs generally average 30-40% across the CWA both days. We cannot rule out isolated stronger thunderstorms on Saturday. For now, the best dynamics for strong to severe thunderstorms is expected to be north of our region. That being said, the Storm Prediction Center has placed our northern Piney Woods counties in a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms. The flow pattern for next week appears to be somewhat amplified and progressive, with the SE Texas atmosphere being intermittently influenced why eastward moving troughs and ridges. We find ourselves on the backside of the aforementioned mid/upper trough on Sunday, before a ridge takes hold late Sunday into Monday. But this may be short-lived, as another trough looks to eject eastward from the Rockies into central CONUS by Tuesday. A frontal boundary on Tuesday could bring isolated to scattered showers to the region. Afternoon temperatures expected to remain in the mid/upper 80s to low 90s into early next week. However, we could be talking about some of the "coolest" air of the season by the second half of the week. But by "coolest" I mean highs mostly in the low/mid 80s with lows ranging from the mid 50s to low/mid 60s. So the current predicted cooldown is more of a reversion to normal for a couple days. Self && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 608 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 A returning southeast flow will begin transporting Gulf moisture back into the region today. Along with it comes some increasing cloud cover, albeit VFR between now and the overnight hours. Some of the hires guidance depicts some spotty, weak shra from time- to-time along/south of the I-10 corridor, but overall coverage and impacts don`t support the mention in this set of TAFs. As low level moisture increases overnight, we could see some fog development...moreso the Brazos Valley area (and the more susceptible outlying non-metro terminals). Model forecast soundings suggest to look for potential intermittent ceilings somewhere around 2500ft developing elsewhere before sunrise. Next shift might need to begin mentioning some PROB30s in regards to daytime shra/tstm potential Friday. 47 && .MARINE... Issued at 1101 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Light to moderate east to southeast winds should increase somewhat as we head into Friday and Saturday. Winds today are expected to average 7-12 knots with seas of 1-3 feet. Isolated to widely scattered showers expected as well. For Friday into Saturday morning, winds are expected to average 12-17 knots with Gulf seas building to 3-5 feet. Winds are expected to decrease somewhat while gradually veering to the south and south-southwest on Saturday as a frontal boundary approaches. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected on both Friday and Saturday. Drier conditions expected in the front`s wake on Sunday, with winds veering from the west to north, northeast, east, then southeast between Sunday morning and Monday morning. Southeasterly flow is expected to persist until a cold front brings the potential for moderate northeasterly winds (15-20 knots) by Wednesday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1101 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Atmospheric conditions are generally improving regarding the fire weather risk. This is due to higher moisture levels bringing higher relatively humidity. That being said, vegetation remains dry, providing plenty of fuel. Therefore, the fire risk remains enhanced despite the improving atmospheric conditions. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 64 87 69 92 / 10 20 0 30 Houston (IAH) 71 86 73 90 / 20 30 10 40 Galveston (GLS) 77 84 77 85 / 30 30 10 30 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Self AVIATION...47 MARINE...Self