737
FXUS64 KHGX 042338
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
538 PM CST Wed Dec 4 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 340 PM CST Wed Dec 4 2024

With the area of low pressure (and its associated warm front) contin-
uing to lift N/NE across SE TX this afternoon/evening, look for rain
chances to slowly taper off through the rest of the day. Moderate to
strong S/SE winds will prevail heading into the evening hours and we
could see some isolated WAA showers develop across the region before
it`s all said and done. But clouds are expected to linger heading in
to the overnight hours, and even with the light north winds develop-
ing in the wake of the exiting low...ceilings should be falling with
the relaxing gradient. The offshore flow (becoming more NE tomorrow)
will persist through tomorrow night and help to usher in much drier/
cooler air to SE TX.

As for temperatures, lows tonight will range from the low to mid 50s
north....mid 50s to around 60 for the central and southern counties.
Highs tomorrow will be in the 60s across the FA. Cooler temperatures
are on tap for tomorrow night with lows ranging from the mid 30s for
the Piney Woods...lower 40s from the Brazos Valley south to the I-10
corridor...mid and upper 40s across the Coastal Plains. 41

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 340 PM CST Wed Dec 4 2024

Expecting Friday morning to start out quiet. As the day progresses and
on into the weekend, the coastal low/trough will organize to our south
and eventually move up the Texas coast. This storm system will bring
increasing chances of showers and possible thunderstorms to the area,
probably peaking in a Saturday night through Sunday evening time period.
The current alignment has the higher weekend rainfall totals near and
east of the I-45 corridor (averaging 1 to 3 inches) and lower rainfall
totals west of the I-45 corridor (averaging 1 to 2 inches), with locally
higher amounts possible across both areas. Monday should quiet down
as the day progresses with lingering rains coming to an end, generally
from west to east. The next cold front moves through the area Monday
night.

Temperatures will start on the cool side on Friday (highs in the 50s!)
then will begin warming up over the weekend. After another cool night
on Friday night (lows mainly in the 40s inland and 50s coast), Saturday`s
highs (50s/60s) will warm into 60s/70s on Sunday followed by the 70s
to maybe close to 80 on Monday. Low temperatures will also trend upward
with Saturday night in the 40s/50s and Sunday night in the 50s to around
60. Monday night`s front will cool us back down (40s/50s), and Tuesday`s
highs look to be mainly in the 60s. Just a heads up...a good chunk of
the area could see lows both Tuesday night and Wednesday night dipping
into the 30s.  42

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 531 PM CST Wed Dec 4 2024

Messy, generally unfavorable aviation conditions anticipated for
the next 18-24 hours. Lingering pockets of -ra should persist for
the next 2-4 hours south of CXO. There`s a non-zero threat of an
isolated thunderstorm, though chances should mostly be
diminishing. IFR/LIFR conditions with low ceilings, drizzle and
fog will sag southward and into the metro and coastal areas
overnight and Thurs morning in association with a weak frontal
boundary and moisture trapped under a low inversion. Ceilings
should slowly lift, but only into MVFR range later in the
afternoon then perhaps VFR Thurs eveing as the depth of cooler air
increases.  46

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 340 PM CST Wed Dec 4 2024

The next cold front will move across the area tonight. Ahead of the
front, expect decreasing winds and gradually lowering seas along with
some showers and thunderstorms and some patchy fog. Increasing and gusty
north to northeast winds and building seas can be expected behind the
front along with possible rain Thursday through Friday. Over the weekend,
northeast to east winds will swing around to the southeast and south
and strengthen. Seas will remain elevated, and also look for increasing
shower and storm coverage, especially Saturday night through Sunday
night. Fog is possible too. Lower rain chances and possible fog will
be in the forecast Monday through Monday evening as winds shift to the
southwest. The next cold front moves across the area Monday night, and
anticipate strengthening north winds and building seas to develop in
its wake. Caution flags and Small Craft Advisories can be expected
through much of this forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  55  62  40  54 /  10  10   0  20
Houston (IAH)  59  64  42  55 /  50  10  10  10
Galveston (GLS)  62  66  48  58 /  50  30  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM CST this evening for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 6 PM CST this evening
     for GMZ330-335.

     Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST tonight for GMZ350-355-
     370-375.

&&

$$