Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
496 FXUS64 KHGX 241026 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 526 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1106 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025 - Drier conditions expected through Monday, although isolated showers and thunderstorms are still possible over areas south of I-10. - High temperatures will rise into the mid 90s through Monday. Heat indices will remain in the lower 100s. - Chance of showers and thunderstorms should rise again midweek as another weak boundary approaches from the north. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1203 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025 Tranquil and warm conditions will continue into Sunday morning with light variable winds and low temperatures in the lower to mid 70s inland and the upper 70s to lower 80s along and near the coasts. A drier weather pattern will continue Sunday and Monday as the mid level high pressure that was anchored over the Four Corners last week begins to move south-southeastward into New Mexico and increases our local mid level heights to around 592 dams. In addition, we are expecting slightly drier air along the surface. In response to this, rain development over Southeast Texas will be limited. However, we may still have some isolated showers and thunderstorms developing in the late morning to late afternoon hours as diurnal heating and instability increases. If any storms do develop, outflow boundaries associated to them could also help trigger some additional storms although isolated in nature. In response to the drier air, rain rates are not expected to be as high as we have seen them to be the past few days, however, we cannot rule out a brief heavy downpour over areas south of I-10. A change in the weather pattern can be expected on Tuesday and could continue into the end of the work week as a weak boundary moves in from the northeast and stalls over or near Southeast TX. How much rain is expected each day, however? Well, models still have the mid level high pressure anchored over TX through the end of the work week, so I believe we will have to see where the weak boundary moves and how much of an influence it will have over our local area in order to determine if storms will be more isolated or scattered to widespread. What will help the boundary enhance our rain chances are PWs bouncing back to 1.8-2.2 inches and afternoon instability. With the amount of moisture expected to be in place, we could have some efficient rain makers out there and result in periods of moderate to heavy rainfall. This could lead to ponding of water along roadways and areas of poor drainage, thus, be sure to check the radar and traffic conditions before you start your commute as heavy rain and frequent lightning could create some driving hazards. With respect to temperatures, the rising mid level heights and sunny to partly skies will bring up the heat and rise our high temperatures into the mid 90s for many locations on Sunday and Monday. Luckily, the drier air will help maintain heat indices between 100-103 deg F...but this could still pose a heath risk if you plan to work or spend time outdoors. Thus, be proactive and continue to practice heat safety. We are expecting temperatures to lower back into the upper 80s to lower 90s Tuesday into the end of the week thanks to the increased rain activity and cloud coverage. Cotto && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 523 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025 Drier airmass is in place today than yesterday. Can`t completely rule out a rogue shra/tstm in the 21-24z timeframe, it`s probably not worth the mention in the TAFs at this point. VFR conditions and light winds should be the rule today and tonight. 47 && .MARINE... Issued at 1203 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025 We will continue to see a landbreeze and seabreeze wind pattern through Monday morning. Onshore winds will become more predominant late Monday into the end of the week. Seas generally between 1 to 2 feet will continue for much of the forecast period. Daily chance for showers and thunderstorms will continue through the end of the forecast period with slightly lower chances Sunday and Monday and increasing again by Tuesday. Strong variable winds/gusts and higher seas are possible in and around strong thunderstorms and outflow boundaries. Cotto && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 96 72 96 73 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 97 75 96 76 / 0 0 10 10 Galveston (GLS) 93 82 92 83 / 20 10 20 30 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Cotto AVIATION...47 MARINE...Cotto