255
FXHW60 PHFO 081334
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
334 AM HST Tue Jul 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong high pressure ridge north of the Hawaiian Islands will
keep breezy to windy trade winds in the forecast for one more day
today. The strongest winds will develop over the windier areas of
Maui and Hawaii Counties. Dry weather conditions will combine
with these strong gusty winds to produce elevated fire danger
across the state each afternoon, mainly over the drier leeward
slopes. Wind speeds will decrease from Wednesday onward. A slight
increase in shower trends remains in the forecast from Wednesday
night onward.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The satellite picture this morning shows bands of fairly stable
clouds moving into the windward mountain slopes of each island.
A ridge aloft will produce enough downward motions (subsidence)
to limit vertical cloud growth and thereby produce only brief
passing light showers across the Hawaii Region. Temperature
inversion heights today will range from 5,000 to 6,000 feet today
due to the stronger subsidence. These temperature inversion
heights will lift into the 7,000 to 8,000 foot range from
Wednesday onward as the high pressure ridge weakens, slightly
increasing shower trends statewide. An upper level low just
southwest of the island chain will produce bands of high level
cirrus ice crystal clouds across the state, enhancing sunrise and
sunset colors.

The main weather story today will continue to focus on the breezy
to windy easterly trade winds blowing across the state. A Wind
Advisory remains in effect until this evening for windier areas
of Maui and Hawaii Counties; including the summits of Mauna Kea
and Mauna Loa on the Big Island. The pattern will begin to change
on Wednesday as the high pressure ridge north of the state weakens.
These strong trade wind speeds will start to decrease to more
moderate to breezy levels for the rest of the week.

Relatively dry humidity levels will combine with these breezy to
windy conditions to elevate fire weather conditions across the
state, mainly over drier and windier leeward areas. Please refer
to the Fire Weather section below for more details.

&&

.AVIATION...
Stable conditions with breezy to windy trade winds will continue
across the state today. Passing showers will favor windward and
mountain areas in the overnight to early morning hours, bringing
the potential for brief MVFR conditions. Otherwise, VFR conditions
will prevail.

AIRMET Tango remains in effect for moderate low-level turbulence
over and downwind of island terrain. This AIRMET will likely
persist as strong trade winds remain in the forecast.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will remain nearly stationary far north of the
islands through today, which will support continued fresh to
strong trades across the area. The Small Craft Advisory remains in
effect for all Hawaiian coastal waters through 6 PM HST Tuesday.
The surface high will move eastward and weaken slightly during the
second half of the week, but winds are likely to remain breezy to
locally strong in the windier channels and waters of Maui County
and the Big Island. Therefore, the SCA will likely need to be
extended for these areas. Additionally, seas may also approach 10
feet at times in the Alenuihaha Channel over the next couple of
days.

South shore surf is expected to slowly decline as the current
small south swell fades. The next small, long- period south swell
is expected to arrive this evening and peak on Wednesday. This
swell may boost south-facing shore surf heights slightly from
Tuesday night through Wednesday before gradually easing again
through Friday. Guidance shows that another, smaller long-period
reinforcement could arrive Friday night into the first half of the
weekend.

Surf along east-facing shores will be rough and choppy for the
next couple of days in response to the gusty easterly trade winds.
As the trades ease a bit during the latter portion of the week,
surf along east-facing shores will also trend down.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Breezy to windy trade winds with stable and relatively dry
conditions will persist today. Minimum relative humidity at lower
leeward elevations will likely fall to around 45 percent this
afternoon, and with the temperature inversion dropping to as low
as 5,000 feet, winds will become gusty over and downwind of island
mountains. This will result in near critical fire weather conditions
over dry leeward areas in the afternoon hours, though no headlines
(watches or warnings) are due since the Keetch Byram Drought
Index will remain below the 600 threshold at Honolulu.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for windier areas of
Maui and Hawaii Counties, including the highest summits of the Big
Island.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for all
Hawaiian waters.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Bohlin
AVIATION...Bohlin
MARINE...Walsh
FIRE WEATHER...Bohlin