904
FXHW60 PHFO 090626
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
826 PM HST Fri Nov 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
The remnants of an old front will bring some showery weather to
Kauai tonight into early Saturday, while typical trade wind
conditions persist elsewhere. Stable and breezy trade wind
weather will then prevail through late next week, with bands of
low clouds and showers occasionally moving through the islands.
The showers will favor windward slopes and coasts, particularly at
night and during the early morning hours, with a few showers
reaching leeward areas at times.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Currently at the surface, a 1026 mb high is centered around 700
miles northwest of Kauai, with the remnants of an old front
draped across Kauai and the Kauai Channel. The gradient remains
tight this evening, with moderate to breezy trade winds in place.
Infrared satellite imagery shows partly to mostly cloudy
conditions across the state, with cloud coverage the highest over
windward and mauka areas. Radar imagery shows scattered to
numerous showers moving into windward areas, with a few of these
showers spilling over into leeward locales. Main short term focus
revolves around rain chances during the next couple days.

High pressure northwest of the state will shift east and merge
with a new building high to the distant northeast of the islands
by the end of the weekend. This high will weaken during the first
half of next week, while a new and stronger high settles in to the
distant north of the islands. Breezy trade winds will prevail
through the period, and could become quite strong late next week
as the high to the north of the state settles southward and closer
to the island chain.

As for the remaining weather details, the old frontal remnants
will focus over Kauai tonight and Saturday morning, with typical
trade wind weather overspreading the entire state by Saturday
afternoon. Fairly typical conditions will then prevail through
late next week, with bands of low clouds and showers occasionally
moving through the islands with the trades. Showers will favor
windward slopes and coasts, particularly at night and during the
early morning hours, with a few showers reaching leeward areas at
times as well.

&&

.AVIATION...
Breezy trade winds will continue through the weekend with brief
showers lingering in the forecast primarily affecting windward and
mountain areas. Ridging aloft is producing inversion heights
between 6,000 to 8,000 feet, and the breezy trade wind flow is
generating low level turbulence over and downwind of terrain on
all islands, where AIRMET Tango remains in place. A band of
moisture from a dissipated front will continue to affect the
western end of the island chain through Saturday.

AIRMET Sierra for mountain obscuration remains in effect tonight
for Kauai. Elsewhere, isolated MVFR conditions will be confined
to windward areas, while VFR will dominate leeward airfields.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure to the northwest of the state will shift to the
north of the state this weekend then hold in place and intensify
over the coming week. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) remains in
effect for the windier waters around Maui County and the Big
Island and will likely remain so for the foreseeable future. In
the extended, there is growing confidence for trades to further
strengthen as a north Pacific high becomes increasingly dominant.
Strong trade winds should become widespread during the second
half of next week with even gales possible for select channels.

A reinforcing medium period NW to NNW (320-340 degree) swell should
peak tonight through early Saturday, then gradually decline over
the remainder of the weekend. A moderate NW (325 degree) swell is
expected to fill in on Monday and will likely peak near advisory
levels late Monday. This swell will be followed by a slightly
larger NW (320 degree) swell on Wednesday, which should produce
advisory level surf for N and W facing shores next week Wednesday.

Surf along east-facing shores will remain rough and choppy through
the middle of next week due to the breezy trade winds. Long range
models are showing a significant increase of windswell towards the
latter half of next week due to a large fetch of strong trade
winds setting up over and upstream of the state. Surf could reach
the advisory threshold of 10 ft by the end of the upcoming work
week.

Surf along south-facing shores will remain small and near the
seasonal average through the middle of next week. Tiny long-period
pulses will be possible over the next few days.

Also with the peak monthly tides coming up towards the latter
half of next week (Nov 14th to Nov 18th) we could see coastal
inundation impacts during the early morning hours along all
coastlines. The large windswell combined with the peak monthly
tides could cause greater impacts along windward shores.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Saturday for Kauai Northwest
Waters-Kauai Leeward Waters-Kauai Channel.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Sunday for Maalaea Bay-
Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big
Island Southeast Waters.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Jelsema
AVIATION...Bohlin
MARINE...Bedal