145
FXHW60 PHFO 070641
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
841 PM HST Sun Apr 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Breezy trade winds will persist through much of the week, with
clouds and showers favoring windward and mauka areas overnight
and during the morning hours. A band of moisture associated with
a remnant front drifting south over the islands, along with a
developing upper-level trough later in the week, may lead to
periods of enhanced windward showers from Monday night through the
second half of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Short-term guidance remains in good agreement, indicating a
weakness forming in the surface ridge late Monday through Tuesday
night as a cold front passes well north of the islands. This will
lead to the pressure gradient relaxing slightly, causing breezy
trade winds to ease into the moderate to locally breezy range.
While showers will remain limited through Monday, coverage may
increase from Monday night through Tuesday night as a shallow band
of moisture moves into the area. Given the shallow nature of this
boundary, rainfall accumulations will be light, with little
reaching leeward areas, especially as trades weaken.

By Wednesday and through the latter half of the week, guidance
shows the surface ridge re-strengthening as a 1035 mb high
builds to the north. This will lead to the return of breezy
northeast trade winds across most of the state, particularly over
the western end, where the remnant boundary may continue to
linger. Windward areas can expect periodic showers, driven by this
lingering shallow moisture and an evolving broad upper trough
over the region.

&&

.AVIATION...
Breezy to locally strong easterly trades will persist into
Monday, then slightly weaken late Monday through Tuesday as the
surface ridge weakens. Clouds and showers will favor windward and
mauka locations, with very little reaching leeward areas. A band
of moisture associated with a remnant front drifting south over
the islands could lead to an uptick in windward showers Monday
night into Tuesday. Periods of MVFR, or even brief IFR conditions,
can be expected in showers. Otherwise, VFR conditions will
prevail.

AIRMET Tango remains in effect below 8000 feet for low-level
turbulence over and downwind of terrain due to the breezy to
locally windy trades across the state.

&&

.MARINE...
A large north swell combined with fresh to strong trade winds
will keep rough seas in the forecast through Monday. Small Craft
Advisory conditions are expected across all Hawaiian waters
through Monday before gradually improving as the north swell
decreases. Trade winds are forecast to weaken slightly from Monday
night to Tuesday, then strengthen by late Wednesday. Winds and
seas should drop below Small Craft Advisory levels by Tuesday for
most marine zones.

Due to the strength and direction of this northerly swell
(340-360 degrees), moderate to heavy harbor surges are
anticipated to continue in north facing harbors into Monday. A
marine weather statement remains posted for this hazard, and this
statement may need to be extended for another 12 hours.

The current large north swell will continue to produce warning
level surf to most north and east facing shores through tonight,
with advisory level surf expected for many exposed west facing
shores. Latest nearshore and offshore buoys continues to show a
gradual decline in surf tonight through the middle of the week.
Surf heights will likely drop to advisory levels along north
facing shores on Monday. A small medium period swell may give a
slight boost to north and west shore surf late Thursday and
Friday, with small surf expected for next weekend.

A series of overlapping small south swells should bring a small
boost to south shore surf starting on Monday and continuing
through the middle of the week. Surf should return to small
mostly background levels Friday into next weekend.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Surf Warning until 6 AM HST Monday for Niihau-Oahu North
Shore-Olomana-Maui Windward West-Kauai North-Kauai East-Koolau
Windward-Molokai Windward-Molokai North-Maui Central Valley
North-Windward Haleakala-Big Island East-Big Island North.

High Surf Advisory until 6 AM HST Monday for Kauai Leeward-
Waianae Coast-Maui Leeward West-Molokai West.

Wind Advisory until 10 PM HST this evening for Lanai Mauka-
Kahoolawe-Maui Windward West-Maui Leeward West-Kohala-Lanai
Windward-Lanai Leeward-Maui Central Valley North-Maui Central
Valley South-South Haleakala-Big Island South-Big Island
Southeast-Big Island North.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Monday for all Hawaiian
waters-

&&
$$

DISCUSSION...Gibbs
AVIATION...Thomas
MARINE...Bohlin