625
FXHW60 PHFO 111359
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
359 AM HST Thu Dec 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

A front will move over Oahu this morning before stalling and
dissipating just north of the Big Island this afternoon and
evening. Limited rainfall is expected Friday. Moderate southwesterly
winds ahead of a stronger front will increase shower potential
along leeward areas Saturday. The highest potential for heavy
rainfall will develop over the western end of the state Sunday
through Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Current satellite and radar imagery shows a band of low level
clouds with embedded light to moderate showers, associated with a
front, moving over the north shore of Oahu early this morning.
Moderate northerly winds have filled in over Kauai behind the
front with light to moderate southwesterly winds ahead of the
front. Overnight rainfall totals for Kauai range from .25 to 1.0
inches along windward areas with a few leeward locations receiving
.01-.02 inches of rainfall. This front will continue to move SE
across Oahu this morning reaching Maui County by late morning and
early afternoon with mainly light to moderate showers expected.
The front will stall and dissipate over Maui County, just north of
the Big Island this afternoon and evening and winds will ease to
light speeds allowing land breezes to develop overnight. Dewpoint
temperatures will dip in the upper 50s tonight around Kauai and
Oahu as drier more stable air filters in behind the front.

Friday winds are expected to swing northeast over the western
half of the state with a light southerly surge developing over the
eastern half of the state. Lingering moisture from the front along
with afternoon seabreezes could trigger a few showers along
leeward and interior areas, especially around Maui County.

Saturday, moderate southerly winds will develop across the state
as a stronger front approaches from the northwest. By Saturday
night, a pre frontal convergence band may set up over the western
half of the state, increasing chances of showers. There appears
to be potential for isolated thunderstorm or two during this time
mainly near Kauai and south waters of Oahu so have add this the
forecast package this morning.

Sunday through Tuesday forecast remains on track with becoming
more dynamic. An upper level trough will become negatively tilted
and pinch off into a low supporting strong cyclogenesis at the
surface northwest of the state. The associated band of heavy rain
with the surface low will settle somewhere over the western end of
the state Sunday night through Monday night. The parent upper
level trough will remain rather progressive suggesting a 24-36
hour type of event. Upon the departure of supporting upper
dynamics on Tuesday, the surface low will move far north of the
state and weaken, leaving an orphaned frontal moisture band over
the area through mid- week, maintaining lingering showers over
the area. Southerly winds will prevail throughout this time
keeping leeward zones in the game for rainfall for at least the
next week.

Blocking high pressure over the Aleutian Island chain will
continue a southward- displaced Pacific jet stream that is
modeled by the EC, GFS, and machine learning guidance to settle
into the low latitudes (20-25N) by the end of the forecast period.
This ensures at least some potential for more active weather
continuing for the foreseeable future.


&&

.AVIATION...
Light west-southwesterly winds persist ahead of a front
approaching from the northwest, veering more northerly behind the
front. The front, currently between Kauai and Oahu, is expected
to continue propagating southeastward, reaching Oahu later this
morning, and then slowly diminishing over Maui County. Showers
along the front may bring periods of MVFR conditions, with brief
periods of IFR conditions possible. Otherwise, expect VFR
conditions to prevail.

AIRMET Sierra is currently in effect for mountain obscuration
across Kauai and Oahu as the front advances southeastward,
however, an update may be needed later this morning to remove
Kauai when the front fully passes over the island.


&&

.MARINE...
A weakening cold front that has moved through Kauai this morning
will slowly advance east across the Oahu and Maui County nearshore
waters through the day. Gentle to moderate northerlies will occur
in the wake of the front with light southwesterly winds
downstream of the front. The front is forecast to dissipate in the
vicinity of Maui County by early Friday morning. Another front
will reach the nearshore waters late Saturday into Sunday morning.
Light southeasterlies will veer more southwesterly Saturday as
the front approaches, becoming more westerly. Numerous showers
with locally heavy rain and isolated thunderstorms are possible in
association with this front Saturday night into early next week.

Wednesday`s moderate size, medium period northwest swell was
reinforced by an overnight north-northwest swell and has been
peaking this morning. Surf along many north and west-facing
shores will remain elevated through the day. Therefore, the High
Surf Advisory will remain in effect for these shores through the
afternoon. Swell will slowly decline from this evening through
Friday. Another moderate, long period northwest swell generated
from a developing gale low just northwest of the offshore waters
late Friday will travel around the islands Sunday and Monday. This
swell should produce advisory level surf from Sunday afternoon
through Monday morning.

Southern facing shores, especially southwestern exposures on Kauai
and Oahu, may receive a moderate wind swell chop this weekend from
amped up southwest winds leading an approaching front.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Conditions will remain below critical fire thresholds into the
weekend. Inversion heights slope from 9,000 ft this morning near
Kauai to 6,000 ft over the Big Island. Expect inversion heights
to increase ahead of a front that is currently moving through
Oahu and will settle and dissipate near Maui County this
afternoon and evening. Inversion heights should level out to near
6,000 ft behind the front and as the front dissipates later
tonight into Saturday.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Niihau-Kauai
Leeward-Waianae Coast-Oahu North Shore-Maui Windward West-Kauai
North-Molokai Windward-Molokai North-Molokai West-Maui Central
Valley North-Windward Haleakala.


&&

$$


DISCUSSION...Almanza
AVIATION...Pierce
MARINE...Blood
FIRE WEATHER...Almanza