831
FXHW60 PHFO 100947
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
1147 PM HST Tue Dec 9 2025

.UPDATE...
High Surf Advisory has been issued. Marine section updated. All
other sections are from previous discussion.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Light winds with land breezes can be expected through tonight.
Winds will then become light southwesterly tomorrow as a cold
front approaches from the northwest. The front should reach
Niihau and Kauai Wednesday night, then stall near Maui Thursday
night. Passing moderate showers may accompany this first front.
Winds will turn light and northerly after the front passes then
potentially turn southerly again Friday into this weekend. Another
stronger front looks to approach this weekend, and heavy rain is
possible as this front could have more upper level support.

&&

.MARINE...
A ridge of high pressure north of Hawaii will erode from the west
as a front approaches the state from the northwest. The front
will enter the Kauai waters late Wednesday and move west to east
across the state through Thursday and stall and dissipate around
Maui County Thursday night. An increase of showers are expected
along and ahead of the front with moderate northerly winds
following behind it. Another front approaching from the northwest
will generate moderate southerly winds this weekend with an
increase of showers expected on Sunday.

Latest buoy readings from 51001 and 51101 are starting to run 1
to 2 feet above guidance as a new northwest swell (320 degree)
moves through. Thus, issued a High Surf Advisory for select north
and west facing shores. As this northwest swell slowly declines
Wednesday night, a reinforcing swell from the north- northwest is
expected on Thursday, keeping surf elevated. These swells will
slowly decline late Thursday into the weekend. Another moderate,
long period northwest swell (320 degree) should gradually fill in
on Sunday and could produce surf near the advisory threshold by
Sunday evening.

Small, choppy east shore surf will become minimal over the next few
days as trades near and upstream become disrupted by approaching
fronts. Expect minimal background surf for south facing shores, with
a minor south-southwest pulse expected Wednesday afternoon into
Thursday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 334 PM HST Tue Dec 9 2025/ A surface
ridge just to the N of the islands will gradually weaken tonight
and tomorrow as a cold front approximately 360 nautical miles NW
of Kauai approaches. Light and variable winds with local land
breezes tonight should give way to light southwesterly winds with
local sea breezes tomorrow morning. Dry conditions are expected
ahead of this front with little rainfall expected for most of the
day Wednesday. The front is forecast to approach Kauai Wednesday
night, Oahu Thursday morning, and then wash out over Maui county
on Thursday evening. Showers will generally be most abundant
within the front but could form over any island interiors during
the afternoon hours with the sea breezes. Light northerly winds
can be expected behind the front, becoming northeasterly by Friday
morning with land/sea breezes.

Winds are forecast to start veering to the south by Friday
evening, then to the southwest by Saturday ahead of the next
anticipated cold front. These southerly winds will push brief
showers over south facing portions of the islands, but overall
stay light. By late Saturday into early Sunday morning, a stronger
and wetter cold front could impact the islands. The front looks
to be very moisture rich, with upper and mid level support,
stalling near or over the western half of the state. Something
worth mentioning is the fact that the upper level trough that is
driving this front southward is much stronger than we have seen so
far this season. Additionally, forcing factors such as upper
level divergence and low level convergence elevates the chances of
sustained heavy rainfall. While Sunday is still several days out,
the last few model runs have become more aligned on this
solution. The forecast has been updated to reflect this change,
with increased POPs statewide, especially for Kauai and Oahu. This
will require further monitoring for flood potential over the next
several days.

AVIATION...
Light easterly background flow resulted in localized sea breezes
and low cloud build ups over the island interiors. AIRMET Sierra
is posted for tempo mountain obscurations that will likely
continue through the rest of the afternoon. VFR conditions with
brief mountain obscurations may occur across the rest of the
islands. Land breezes will clear out cloud cover tonight.

By Wednesday morning, moderate southwest winds will build west to
east across the state. A few clouds and showers will track in from
the southwest on this flow regime Wednesday.

.FIRE WEATHER...
Conditions should remain below critical fire thresholds through
the week with light winds and elevated RH. Temperature inversion
heights should linger around 6,000 to 7,000 feet through tomorrow.

$$

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST Thursday for Niihau-Kauai
Leeward-Waianae Coast-Oahu North Shore-Maui Windward West-Kauai
North-Molokai Windward-Molokai North-Molokai West-Maui Central
Valley North-Windward Haleakala.

&&

UPDATE...Parker
DISCUSSION...Tsamous/Farris
AVIATION...Foster
MARINE...Almanza
FIRE WEATHER...Tsamous/Farris